Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 15:07Z FOCUS: AIR FIXATION ESCALATION (KHARKIV) & SOUTHERN PREPARATORY SHAPING

Key updates since last sitrep

• (15:01Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Russian Federation (RF) launched KAB glide bombs toward Kharkiv Oblast targets from the Eastern direction. This confirms the previously detected RF UAV probing (14:38Z) successfully enabled rapid targeting by the strike complex, signaling an escalation of the air fixation campaign in the Northeast.
• (15:02Z, TASS/SVR, HIGH) Director of RF Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergey Naryshkin, publicly claimed that Russia maintains ongoing intelligence contacts with various European state intelligence services. This is assessed as a high-impact Information Operation (IO) designed to sow distrust among EU/NATO allies.
• (15:01Z, Воин DV, LOW) RF sources (Vostok Group affiliated) claim tactical advancement in the tree lines near Huliaipole, asserting that UAF forces are unable to hold their positions. This specific claim is UNCONFIRMED and potentially preparatory IO for the anticipated armored thrust further west.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northeast Axis (Kharkiv / Sumy)

The RF air threat has significantly escalated. Following the detection of UAV swarms near Zolochiv and Vovchansk (baseline), the confirmed use of KABs (15:01Z) indicates that the RF reconnaissance-strike complex is fully engaged. This action aims to degrade command and control nodes or critical logistics hubs supporting UAF forces in the Kupyansk/Lyman sectors, or to exert direct psychological pressure on Kharkiv City.

Southern Axis (Herasymivka / Huliaipole)

The CRITICAL threat of an imminent armored breakout at Herasymivka (Gaychur River bridgehead) remains the primary concern (baseline). The RF claim of tactical progression near Huliaipole (15:01Z) suggests a possible coordinated operational shaping effort. By claiming advances on the eastern flank of the Zaporizhzhia line, the RF seeks to fix UAF attention and prevent reserves from being swiftly repositioned to counter the main armored effort. Verification of the Huliaipole claim is urgent.

Eastern Axis (Donetsk / Krasnolymanske)

No change from baseline. Pressure is sustained but manageable. RF claims of "street fighting" in Krasny Lyman (baseline) remain unverified IO/disinformation pending specific ISR confirmation.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Synchronized Air and Ground Fixation (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF operational methodology is confirmed to involve synchronized efforts across multiple domains ahead of a major ground maneuver.

• Kinetic Fixation: KAB strikes in Kharkiv (15:01Z) ensure UAF mobile AD assets are fixed far north, clearing the way for potential air support or sustained artillery fire ahead of the Herasymivka breakthrough.
• Ground Shaping: The UNCONFIRMED claim of success near Huliaipole (15:01Z) indicates that the Vostok Group is attempting to tie down UAF 1st Echelon defenses along the broader Southern Front prior to the main thrust.

2. Strategic Influence Operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE): SVR Director Naryshkin's public statement regarding ongoing intelligence contacts in Europe (15:02Z) is a calculated strategic maneuver.

• Intent: The statement is designed to create immediate friction and mistrust within the NATO/EU coalition, challenging the counter-intelligence capabilities of European partners, and attempting to destabilize the positive diplomatic momentum achieved by Kyiv regarding frozen asset utilization (baseline 14:44Z).

3. Strategic Weapon Signaling: The strategic deployment of the "Oreshnik" system in Belarus (baseline) and claims of 800km Iskander range (baseline) remain the most dangerous long-term threat vectors, designed to coerce and deter Western support.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Command is currently engaged in reactive measures related to the confirmed air attacks in Kharkiv, likely involving activation of mobile AD units and damage assessment. Tactical positioning remains focused on stabilizing the Herasymivka sector and anticipating the armored thrust (baseline analysis).

Information environment / disinformation

1. Foreign Intelligence Coercion: The Naryshkin announcement constitutes a direct attempt to undermine Ukraine's political and military support structures by casting doubt on the reliability of European intelligence cooperation. 2. Tactical Over-Inflation: The immediate release of the Huliaipole advance claim (15:01Z) is consistent with RF doctrine of using pre-emptive, localized claims of success to amplify perceived momentum, regardless of actual ground truth, likely masking the true objectives (Herasymivka). 3. Low-Level Distraction: The simultaneous appearance of high-visibility commercial promotions (TonPlay casino, 15:00Z) is indicative of the persistent background noise in the information environment, though currently assessed as militarily insignificant.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Armored Breakthrough Execution & Sustained Air Denial. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF Vostok Group will likely initiate the full armored breakthrough at the Herasymivka bridgehead (5th Tank Bde/37th GMRB) within the next 6 hours (0000Z Dec 19 is peak window, baseline). This action will be supported by a massive artillery barrage (260th GRAU stocks deployed) and continued air fixation efforts across Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia to prevent UAF reserve commitment.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Deep Strike Coercion. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RF executes the armored thrust while simultaneously launching a long-range kinetic strike using an unconfirmed extended-range system (Oreshnik or 800km Iskander) against a critical Western Ukrainian logistics or infrastructure target. This action would test the UAF air defense response in the strategic rear and maximize political panic, potentially delaying NATO/EU response to the ground maneuver.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements