Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 12:06Z Assessment Focus: RF deep strike execution is confirmed, characterized by the expansion of kinetic threats to include Kryvyi Rih and demonstrated tactical maneuverability in approach vectors against Dnipro City. Concurrently, RF has escalated the financial conflict in direct response to Western sanctions. The threat of a breakout at Herasymivka remains CRITICAL.

Key updates since last sitrep

• (11:54Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH) Critical update to the kinetic threat: A new enemy UAV was detected inbound to Dnipro City from the West, potentially indicating a tactical evasion maneuver or the operational use of localized ISR assets, requiring immediate AD re-tasking.
• (11:52Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH) RF deep strike campaign is expanding geographically: UAV confirmed inbound towards Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) from the East, broadening the operational area of the current strike wave.
• (11:45Z, ZOVA, HIGH) Casualty toll from yesterday's KAB strike on Zaporizhzhia City increased to 35 wounded seeking medical assistance, confirming significant high-explosive impact on urban civilian infrastructure.
• (11:57Z, TASS, HIGH) RF Central Bank (CBRF) announced escalation of the financial war, planning to sue European banks in Russian arbitration courts for losses incurred from frozen assets, signifying active RF counter-sanction posture.
• (12:00Z, UAF, HIGH) UAF forces, specifically the Patrol Police "Predator" Brigade, confirmed systematic successful anti-UAV operations on the Kostiantynivka axis, mitigating RF tactical ISR dominance in the Donetsk sector.
• (11:52Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH) Political uncertainty regarding essential financial support persists; Estonian PM Kallas assessed the success of the EU 'reparations credit' for Ukraine at 50/50.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih/Zaporizhzhia)

The kinetic threat matrix is evolving rapidly. The immediate tactical concern is the ongoing UAV saturation strike against the key logistical and C2 hubs of Dnipro and Odesa, now complicated by the addition of Kryvyi Rih to the target set.

1. Dnipropetrovsk: The UAV approaching Dnipro City from the West (11:54Z) is highly unusual given standard RF launch points (Black Sea, Eastern front). Assessment: This vector could represent an attempt to bypass traditional Eastern-facing AD coverage, or it may be a smaller, ground-launched asset performing terminal guidance reconnaissance for the larger strike package.
2. Kryvyi Rih: The new threat vector toward Kryvyi Rih (11:52Z) indicates RF intent to stress UAF AD resources and degrade industrial/logistical hubs supporting the Dnipropetrovsk operational area.
3. Zaporizhzhia: The high casualty rate (35 wounded) from recent KAB use confirms RF intent to maintain psychological and coordination pressure on the UAF rear areas, pinning reserves and straining civil services.

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Kostiantynivka)

UAF forces are adapting to RF operational methodologies. The successful systematic interdiction of enemy aerial targets (likely FPV/ISR) by specialized UAF units in the Kostiantynivka sector (12:00Z) is a net positive, reducing RF ability to conduct localized precision strikes or real-time fire correction.

Deep Operations

UAF continues deep strike/ISR operations into RF territory, evidenced by RF reports of UAF UAVs being intercepted over Bryansk Oblast (11:59Z) and the high severity of confirmed casualties (2 critical) from a previous strike in Rostov Oblast (11:45Z). RF simultaneously claims successful counter-logistics operations, specifically the destruction of a UAV assembly facility in Sumy (11:45Z, UNCONFIRMED).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Priority Shift (Exploitation Phase): RF is executing a coordinated deep strike designed to achieve operational shock and fix UAF reserves. The expansion of the target set to Kryvyi Rih (11:52Z) forces UAF commanders to disperse AD assets, potentially creating windows of vulnerability around the critical Herasymivka breach where the main armored exploitation is expected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. Financial War Escalation (RF): The CBRF action to seek damages from European banks (11:57Z) signals a shift in RF economic strategy from reactive absorption of sanctions to proactive counter-measures. This maneuver aims to complicate Western efforts to utilize frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian aid and may introduce systemic risk into European financial dealings involving Russian entities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. RF Logistical/Production Claims (UNCONFIRMED): The claim of destroying a major UAV production facility in Sumy (11:45Z) must be viewed as likely propaganda unless corroborated. If true, it represents a significant tactical success for RF targeting of UAF indigenous military-industrial capacity. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Legislative Support: The granting of 90 days of paid recuperation leave for returning POWs (11:50Z) is a crucial personnel retention measure, addressing the cognitive and physical demands placed on combat veterans.
2. Tactical Counter-UAV Success: Demonstrated competency in defeating RF aerial systems in the Eastern sector (Kostiantynivka, 12:00Z) highlights UAF adaptation and effective integration of specialized units (Patrol Police Brigades) into frontline defense against hybrid threats.
3. Diplomatic Mobilization: President Zelenskyy's arrival at the EU Summit (11:59Z) is a decisive move to secure vital, long-term financial assistance, despite the stated uncertainty surrounding the 'reparations credit' proposal (11:52Z).

Information environment / disinformation

1. Funding Narrative Vulnerability: The 50/50 assessment of EU financial aid approval creates an immediate opportunity for RF disinformation channels to amplify narratives of wavering Western support, targeting UAF morale and recruitment efforts.
2. Morale Counter-Programming: UAF civil-military coordination in Zaporizhzhia (12:00Z) is actively using symbolic events to reinforce unity and resilience against RF urban terror tactics (KAB strikes).
3. RF Domestic Friction: Reports of internal criticism within RF military media channels (11:58Z) suggest minor cracks in the unified RF information front regarding the portrayal of frontline personnel, which UAF PSYOPs may leverage.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Maximum Kinetic Strike Saturation and Deep ISR. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF will commit the currently identified UAV swarms to a massed strike against the expanded target set (Dnipro City, Kryvyi Rih, Odesa maritime nodes) NLT 1600Z. The primary objective is to achieve immediate functional degradation of UAF response capacity across the Southern Theatre of Operations (STO) and to fix AD assets far from the Herasymivka breach.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Armored Breakout at Herasymivka supported by SEAD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. Concurrent with the MLCOA, RF will initiate Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) operations targeting critical UAF AD systems that are stretched thin covering the new targets (Kryvyi Rih). If UAF AD is successfully suppressed, RF heavy mechanized forces will attempt a breakthrough at Herasymivka, aiming to achieve an operational exploitation toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border (NLT 1900Z).

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements