Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 10:45Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (10:03Z, GSZSU, HIGH) RF ground forces executed three distinct assaults in the Kursk / North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, all repelled by UAF, confirming RF intent to utilize limited ground maneuver elements to fix UAF reserves along the northern border.
• (10:09Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH) RF kinetic activity continues with renewed Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes reported targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast, sustaining the deep interdiction campaign aimed at degrading UAF operational capacity in the south.
• (10:03Z, GSZSU, HIGH) Heavy contact confirmed across the Pokrovsk, Orikhiv, and Huliaipole operational directions, indicating that RF maintains constant pressure along the entire Eastern and Southern LOC, preventing UAF reserve repositioning toward the critical Herasymivka breach area.
• (10:13Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM) A deep UAV strike targeted Rostov Oblast overnight, resulting in 3 fatalities and 9 casualties. This demonstrates continued UAF/adversary deep strike capability against RF domestic infrastructure and population centers.
• (10:28Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH) Political division within the EU deepened regarding Russian assets, with Hungarian PM Orbán stating the idea of using frozen assets is "dead," potentially impacting the long-term financial security mechanisms for Ukraine.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Herasymivka/Zaporizhzhia/Odesa)

RF focus remains on creating a localized operational crisis through kinetic suppression and maintaining LOC pressure while the Herasymivka breach is consolidated.

1. Kinetic Interdiction (HIGH Confidence): KAB strikes targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast (10:09Z) are synchronizing with the earlier confirmed aviation strikes (10:02Z sitrep) to maximize suppression of UAF C2 and mobility in the rear.
2. LOC Fixation (HIGH Confidence): GSZSU reports confirming active fighting near Plavni (Orikhiv) and Huliaipole (10:03Z) demonstrate that RF Vostok Group is executing a theater-wide fixing effort. This is crucial for RF to prevent UAF from stripping defenses in these sectors to reinforce the Dnipropetrovsk/Herasymivka breach.
3. Southern Logistics Threat (HIGH Confidence): New UAV detections targeting Zatoka/Serhiivka and Lebedivka (Odesa Oblast, 10:05Z) indicate persistent RF reconnaissance and strike threat aimed at the Southern logistics corridor, reinforcing the logistical paralysis caused by the Artsyz power outage (Previous Daily Report).
4. Energy Status (HIGH Confidence): Despite sustained targeting, the Zaporizhzhia Oblast administration confirms current energy limitations (rolling blackouts) are not being intensified (10:20Z), suggesting UAF recovery and system resilience measures are holding up against immediate RF kinetic effects.

Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donetsk)

1. Persistent Assaults (HIGH Confidence): Clashes are confirmed across a wide arc in the Pokrovsk direction, including Oleksandrohrad, Sosnivka, Solodke, and Krasnohirske (10:03Z). This constant operational tempo aims to degrade UAF defensive integrity and fix the bulk of UAF Eastern reserves.
2. Enemy Claims (LOW Confidence): RF Center Group claims destruction of UAF in Dimitrov and clearing operations in Rodinske, Svitlo, and Hryshyne (10:04Z). Given Hryshyne's established importance as a UAF defensive node, this claim is assessed as premature propaganda unless corroborated by IMINT/HUMINT.

Northern Axis (Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv)

1. Ground Probing (HIGH Confidence): UAF successfully repelled three RF ground assaults in the Sumy/Kursk sector (10:03Z). This is a critical tactical development, confirming RF willingness to use limited battalion-level forces to pressure NATO border zones, forcing UAF to retain combat-ready units in the North.
2. Deep ISR (HIGH Confidence): UAV activity continues near Ponorytsia (Chernihiv) and Nova Vodolaha (Kharkiv) (10:08Z, 10:20Z). These are classic reconnaissance routes aimed at identifying movement of UAF operational reserves or targeting key rail junctions in preparation for future deep strike waves.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Coordination of Fixing Operations (Judgment: HIGH Confidence) RF has successfully coordinated kinetic (KABs/UAVs) and ground maneuver operations across three axes simultaneously. The confirmed assaults in Sumy (North), the pressure in Pokrovsk/Huliaipole (East/Center), and the deep strikes in Zaporizhzhia (South) collectively aim to ensure UAF operational commanders cannot transfer critical strategic reserves to stabilize the Herasymivka breach without exposing other key sectors.

2. Domestic Vulnerability (Judgment: MEDIUM Confidence) The reported UAV strike on Rostov Oblast resulting in casualties (10:13Z) signals UAF/adversary capability to strike RF command/logistics centers (Rostov is HQ Southern Military District) or civilian infrastructure, raising the internal cost of the conflict for RF and demanding RF resources for domestic air defense protection. This strike increases the probability of immediate, retaliatory RF strikes against Ukrainian urban areas.

3. Strategic Diplomatic Leveraging (Judgment: HIGH Confidence) RF is actively observing and leveraging EU divisions regarding frozen assets (10:22Z, 10:28Z). Kremlin statements (10:26Z) preparing contacts with the US following outcomes of US/EU/Kyiv work indicate intent to exploit perceived weakness in Western solidarity or diplomatic impasse to push for a favorable tactical pause or negotiated settlement.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Defensive Success (HIGH Confidence): UAF ground forces successfully repelled three RF assaults in the critical Northern border region (10:03Z), validating the effective deployment of Territorial Defense and specialized border units.
2. Tactical Counter-Kinetic Capability (MEDIUM Confidence): The UAF 422nd separate UAV battalion "Luftwaffe" reports kinetic success against RF targets in Zaporizhzhia (10:33Z). This reinforces the role of UAF tactical UAV superiority in attrition warfare, especially against consolidating RF ground elements near the LOC.
3. Civil-Military Resilience (HIGH Confidence): Local authorities in Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia (10:05Z, 10:20Z) demonstrate effective, ongoing damage control and public assistance following kinetic attacks, mitigating the psychological and infrastructural impact of RF terror strikes.

Information environment / disinformation

1. Asset Confiscation Narrative (HIGH Confidence): Pro-RF channels (10:22Z) and subsequent mainstream reporting (10:28Z) are maximizing the narrative of EU "theft" and internal division, specifically amplifying the opposition by Hungary and Belgium. This aligns with the pre-existing Dempster-Shafer belief regarding the disinformation campaign framing EU asset use as theft (0.001947). The aim is to fracture international financial support for Kyiv.
2. RF Diplomatic Posturing (HIGH Confidence): Peskov’s announcement regarding potential US contacts (10:26Z, 10:30Z) is a public framing operation, suggesting RF retains the initiative to engage high-level diplomacy following battlefield and diplomatic successes (like the perceived EU financial split).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Deep Interdiction and Bridgehead Consolidation (Sustained). HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF Vostok Group will maintain high-volume KAB and missile strikes throughout Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts (NLT 1700Z) to sustain operational paralysis. Simultaneously, RF efforts will prioritize the deployment of tactical air defense and fire support systems onto the western bank of the Gaychur River at Herasymivka, securing the bridgehead for the eventual insertion of heavy armor. Ground assaults in Pokrovsk and Huliaipole will continue to prevent UAF reserve repositioning.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Rapid Armored Breakthrough Attempt (Herasymivka). MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. If RF ISR confirms significant logistical disruption in Odesa (Artsyz) or C2 degradation in Zaporizhzhia due to the KAB strikes, RF will commit Main Battle Tank (MBT) and heavy mechanized formations across the Gaychur River (NLT 1500Z). The primary vector would be northwest toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border, exploiting the temporary fixation of UAF defenses across the wider LOC.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements