Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 08:07Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (07:44Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH) RF forces launched direct, targeted shelling against the Kherson TPP (Thermal Power Plant), confirming persistent RF targeting of critical civilian heating and energy infrastructure in rear areas.
• (08:04Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM) RF Vostok Group claims continued tactical advance in forest belts near Gulyaypole, assessed as an active fixing operation intended to draw UAF reserves away from the Herasymivka breach zone.
• (07:40Z/07:42Z/07:54Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH) Russian UAV/drone activity confirmed across multiple sectors: Odesa Oblast (Lymanka-Serhiivka direction), Southern Mykolaiv Oblast, and Sumy Oblast (heading south). This demonstrates a pervasive, theater-wide reconnaissance and strike pressure campaign.
• (07:38Z/08:06Z, Fighterbomber/Starshye Eddy, HIGH) Russian leadership employed extremely hostile rhetoric toward European leaders, signaling a hardened strategic posture and a definitive rejection of immediate peace negotiations involving concessions.
• (08:02Z, TASS, HIGH) EU Commission President Von der Leyen stated the EU summit will not conclude until the issue of financial support for Ukraine is resolved, reinforcing the high-stakes political importance of securing long-term funding.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Herasymivka/Gulyaypole/Odesa)

The overall operational environment is consistent with the final preparatory phase before the anticipated heavy armored breakthrough at Herasymivka.

1. Herasymivka: The armored thrust remains delayed. Current RF focus is on adjacent pressure and logistics denial.
2. Gulyaypole (Zaporizhzhia): RF MoD claims advances in forest belts near Gulyaypole (08:04Z). This is judged to be a fixing operation designed to pin UAF units defending the flanks of the main bridgehead attack.
3. Targeting: Strikes against the Kherson TPP (07:44Z) and persistent UAV reconnaissance against the Odesa logistical corridor confirm RF intent to impose maximum operational friction in the UAF rear while preparing the main effort.

Eastern Axis (Toretske/Artemivka)

RF sources claim that the 68th and 163rd Tank Regiments are engaged in combat near Toretske and Artemivka (07:59Z), utilizing FPV drones to destroy UAF positions and Ground Robotic Complexes (NRTK). This indicates:

• Mechanized Pressure: Commitment of named Tank Regiments suggests this is a high-priority, localized kinetic effort.
• Adaptation: The targeted destruction of NRTK indicates specific countermeasures against UAF ground tactical automation.
• Intent: RF likely seeks to gain ground in the Donetsk sector to offset the recent significant UAF success near Lyman.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Enemy Center of Gravity (CoG): The heavy armored grouping adjacent to the Herasymivka bridgehead, supported by theater-wide logistics interdiction and diplomatic synchronization.

1. Maneuver & Preparation (HIGH Confidence): The combined targeting sequence (Gulyaypole fixing, Orekhov logistics strike [previous], Kherson TPP strike [new]) confirms that RF forces are methodically completing the necessary steps for a heavy armored breakthrough at Herasymivka. The current pause is assessed as tactical synchronization, not strategic withdrawal.

2. Strategic Intent & Rhetoric (HIGH Confidence): The extreme anti-Western rhetoric from RF leadership (07:38Z, 08:06Z) signals a hard-line commitment to military objectives without immediate regard for political de-escalation. This reduces the probability of a sudden, tactical stand-down due to diplomatic pressure and supports the MLCOA of a kinetic escalation.

3. UAV/ISR Operations (HIGH Confidence): RF reconnaissance is persistent and multi-directional, targeting all critical domains—the Southern GLOC (Odesa), the operational depth (Mykolaiv), and the Northern flank (Sumy). This sustained ISR pressure is designed to maximize targeting opportunities and force UAF air defense decentralization.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF activity is primarily characterized by active defense, air interdiction, and crucial diplomatic signaling:

1. Active Air Defense: UAF Air Force is continuously engaging RF UAVs across the Black Sea approach (Odesa) and the southern and northern operational zones (Mykolaiv, Sumy).
2. Internal Security Emphasis: The official tribute to the SBU Military Counterintelligence (07:56Z, 08:03Z) reinforces the importance of neutralizing RF agents and countering internal threats, particularly relevant given ongoing RF information operations concerning corruption/scandals.
3. Diplomatic Engagement: The presence of the Ukrainian delegation in Miami (07:51Z) ensures Kyiv remains a direct participant in high-level discussions, managing the narrative against RF synchronization efforts.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is focused on undermining international support, specifically regarding financial aid:

• RF IO Theme: EU Disunity (07:57Z, 08:03Z). Narrative focuses on internal EU conflict over long-term Ukraine financing (e.g., 'reparation credit' terminology), aiming to project uncertainty and delay.
• RF Subversion Campaign: The continued push by the SVR (08:05Z) regarding the "Mindich-Zelensky case" is an active attempt to degrade the trust relationship between UAF/Kyiv leadership and Western partners, a textbook hybrid operation targeting cohesion.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Execution of Armored Assault at Herasymivka (NLT 1300Z). HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF Vostok Group has completed key preparatory phases (Gulyaypole fixing, rear area targeting). The hardening of political rhetoric provides strategic cover for immediate, large-scale kinetic action. The assault will focus on achieving tactical depth (5-10km) west of the Gaychur River bridgehead.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Coordinated Offensive in South and East. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RF Vostok Group launches the Herasymivka armored breakthrough while simultaneously increasing the intensity of the localized mechanized assault in the Eastern sector (Toretske/Artemivka), forcing UAF Command to split critical operational reserves between two separate high-demand axes.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements