Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 07:40Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (07:19Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH) The Ukrainian delegation is confirmed to be traveling to Miami for parallel negotiations, reinforcing the previous report of high-level diplomatic activity. This introduces strategic political volatility concurrent with frontline kinetic action.
• (07:08Z/07:25Z, Оперативний ЗСУ/РБК-Україна, HIGH) UAF 3rd Army Corps (AK), in coordination with the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), successfully destroyed an entire Russian Federation (RF) regiment during assault operations in the Lyman direction. This is a significant local tactical success.
• (07:15Z/07:16Z, Басурин/Котенок, MEDIUM) UAF launched a large-scale overnight deep strike using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), with RF sources claiming the interception of 47-70+ UAVs, including over 30 in Bryansk Oblast. This confirms continued UAF strategic pressure on RF border regions.
• (07:23Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) RF forces successfully targeted and destroyed a UAF equipment parking area near Orekhov (Zaporizhzhia Direction). This activity is assessed as essential preparation, aiming to degrade UAF defensive logistics immediately prior to the anticipated armored thrust at Herasymivka.
• (07:13Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM) EU leaders are expected to finalize a solution regarding long-term financial support for Ukraine this Friday, providing a positive counter-signal to RF diplomatic pressure and ongoing information operations.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Herasymivka/Gaychur River/Orekhov)

The critical threat remains the RF Vostok Group's bridgehead west of the Gaychur River. The anticipated heavy armored thrust (MLCOA in previous reports) remains delayed past the 07:00Z window. Current RF activity focuses on soft targets and logistics degradation in the immediate UAF rear, evidenced by the reported destruction of UAF equipment near Orekhov (07:23Z). This suggests the RF timeline is adjusting to ensure maximum preparatory fire/damage before committing Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) to the breach. The official UAF Southern Defense report (07:21Z) confirms active monitoring as of 08:00Z.

Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Lyman)

The tactical situation in the Eastern Operational Zone is characterized by both sustained RF pressure (Pokrovsk remains the CoG) and localized UAF success. The successful destruction of an RF regiment by the 3rd AK/GUR near Lyman (07:08Z) demonstrates high operational effectiveness and successful coordination, potentially stabilizing the northern shoulder of the Donetsk front line and limiting RF's ability to reinforce Siversk.

Northeast Axis (Kupyansk)

RF sources continue to disseminate information regarding the Kupyansk direction (07:21Z), suggesting ongoing fixing operations to tie up UAF reserves. No significant change in the tactical geometry is confirmed since UAF regained control of 90% of the city (Previous Daily Report).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: CRITICAL (Maneuver, Hybrid Operations)

1. Maneuver Assessment (HIGH Confidence): The current lull at Herasymivka is confirmed as a tactical pause for preparation, not a cancellation of the offensive. RF forces are actively utilizing air/FPV assets to degrade UAF rear support structures (Orekhov strike) immediately adjacent to the breach zone. This aligns precisely with pre-breakthrough operational sequencing.
2. UAV/Air Defense Adaptation (MEDIUM Confidence): RF Air Defense has demonstrated significant capacity to counter massed UAF deep strikes, claiming intercept rates of 47-70+ UAVs (07:15Z). While this shows UAF can heavily task RF AD, it also highlights the persistent requirement for saturation to achieve kinetic effects on high-value internal targets.
3. Hybrid Operations Synchronization (HIGH Confidence): RF has successfully synchronized the use of extreme psychological warfare (previous report), high-level political signaling (Miami talks), and immediate combat preparation (Orekhov targeting). The intent is to maximize military advantage while leveraging external political uncertainty to coerce favorable negotiations.
4. Geopolitical Information Operations (MEDIUM Confidence): RF state media and affiliated channels are actively promoting narratives designed to distract Western audiences, such as the US-Venezuela tension (07:32Z) and internal US/EU corruption claims (07:07Z), to dilute attention away from the intensifying combat in Ukraine.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces are focused on three domains:

1. Tactical Offensive/Counter-mobility: Demonstrated successful large-scale, coordinated offensive operations in the Lyman direction (07:08Z, 07:25Z), showcasing the capacity for localized counter-penetration. Tactical units are maintaining pressure near Herasymivka, implied by continued small-scale engagements.
2. Strategic Interdiction: The large-scale UAV strike deep into RF territory (Bryansk, etc.) demonstrates UAF commitment to strategic attrition and internal cost imposition against RF.
3. Political Posture: Confirmation of the UA delegation attending parallel Miami negotiations (07:19Z) ensures Ukraine maintains an active role in shaping the political narrative alongside the military defense.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is dominated by the confirmed parallel diplomatic track in Miami (07:19Z), which directly supports RF's military-political strategy of fighting while negotiating. UAF must manage the narrative carefully to prevent the perception that the political track is replacing the fight for territorial integrity. Positive international reporting (anticipated EU funding, 07:13Z) is a necessary counterweight to RF attempts to undermine UAF international standing through corruption narratives (07:07Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Execution of Armored Assault at Herasymivka (0900Z-1300Z). HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF Vostok Group will conclude necessary preparatory fires and logistics degradation (as seen near Orekhov) and launch the heavy armored assault from the Gaychur River bridgehead. The weather conditions and the synchronization of the diplomatic track favor an immediate breakout attempt. RF's primary objective will be to seize tactical depth before UAF operational reserves can be effectively committed.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Exploitation of Lyman Success / Deep Strike Synchronization. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. Following the UAF destruction of the RF regiment near Lyman, RF forces could initiate a rapid, localized counter-offensive using reserve assets in the Siversk-Lyman axis to negate the UAF gain, while simultaneously conducting a deep missile/UAV strike on UAF C2 infrastructure (similar to the previous MDCOA) to create operational paralysis coinciding with the Herasymivka breakthrough attempt.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements