Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 07:06Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (06:46Z, Gen. Staff ZSU, HIGH) The Pokrovsk direction remains the kinetic center of gravity in the East, accounting for 38 of 134 total recorded combat engagements over the previous 24 hours. This confirms sustained, high-intensity attrition warfare.
• (06:44Z/06:48Z, Air Force UA, HIGH) A new group of RF Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) was detected crossing into Chernihiv Oblast, tracking course toward Sedniv/Chernihiv City from the East. This indicates continued localized air threat targeting northern rear areas, potentially following up on the earlier mass strike.
• (07:00Z, Воин DV, MEDIUM) RF Vostok Group sources claim FPV drone operators successfully destroyed a Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) armored vehicle attempting a counterattack in the Vostok Group’s Area of Responsibility (AOR), suggesting UAF counter-mobility operations are active near Herasymivka.
• (06:38Z/07:03Z, ASTRA/TASS, MEDIUM) High-level, potential unofficial diplomatic activity is reported, involving RF Special Envoy Dmitriev and UA Security Council Secretary Umerov meeting US figures (Whitkoff, Kushner) in Miami this week. This introduces significant political uncertainty into the operational context.
• (07:06Z, Alex Parker Returns, LOW) RF information channels disseminated extreme, unverified video content promoting alleged atrocities against a captive UAF soldier, signaling an escalated psychological warfare effort targeting UAF morale.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Herasymivka/Gaychur River)

The anticipated massed armored thrust from the 1km bridgehead west of the Gaychur River (MLCOA in previous sitrep) has not been confirmed within the immediate 6-12 hour window (06:36Z, RF sources claiming quiet night). However, localized combat continues, highlighted by RF claims of destroying a UAF armored vehicle during a counterattack attempt (07:00Z). This suggests UAF forces are maintaining pressure on the bridgehead through localized counter-mobility and reconnaissance. The lack of immediate heavy armor movement may indicate a tactical delay by Vostok Group, not cancellation, pending optimal weather or further preparatory fires.

Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk)

The Eastern front remains characterized by sustained, high-attrition contact. The Pokrovsk direction (Krasnoarmeysk) continues to absorb the highest volume of engagements (38/134). RF Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirms the commitment of dedicated heavy artillery assets (27th Motorized Rifle Division) to this direction (07:02Z), reinforcing the assessment that RF is attempting to widen the salient or fix significant UAF reserves here, preventing their relocation South.

Northeast Axis (Kharkiv/Chernihiv)

RF kinetic activity persists in Kharkiv Oblast (06:41Z). The detection of new UAV infiltration towards Chernihiv/Sedniv (06:44Z, 06:48Z) suggests RF is attempting to exploit gaps or saturated zones in UAF Air Defense following the 82-UAV attack, targeting deep rear areas supporting the northern shoulder.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: CRITICAL (Maneuver, Information Operations)

1. Maneuver Intention (HIGH Confidence): Despite the temporary lull, the conditions for the armored breakthrough at Herasymivka remain optimal for RF forces. The commitment of close air support (baseline) and previous deep strikes indicates RF intent to launch the assault imminently. The current delay is assessed to be tactical (preparation/timing) rather than operational (cancellation).
2. Information Warfare (CRITICAL Threat): The shift to disseminating extreme atrocity content (07:06Z) is a high-risk, high-impact psychological operation designed to induce battlefield paralysis, reduce morale, and undermine UAF command cohesion. Immediate counter-narrative preparation is required.
3. Logistics Stress: Recruitment advertisements (06:54Z) persist across RF military channels, indicating a sustained requirement for personnel reinforcement, suggesting long-term attrition rates are taxing RF force generation capabilities.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF operations focus on maintaining defensive integrity in the East (Pokrovsk) and executing localized counter-mobility operations to prevent RF breakout at Herasymivka (implied by RF counter-mobility claims, 07:00Z). UAF Air Defense remains highly active in the Northern zone (06:44Z). The critical challenge remains managing strategic reserves: resisting the strong temptation to move assets to seal the immediate breach at Herasymivka until heavy RF armor commitment is confirmed, while simultaneously sustaining high-volume defense in Pokrovsk.

Information environment / disinformation

The political environment is significantly destabilized by reports of high-level, possibly back-channel, peace talks (06:38Z, 07:03Z). This may signal that RF is attempting to achieve a political objective (i.e., negotiations based on current control lines) simultaneous to maximizing military gains at Herasymivka. The narrative suggests external pressure or internal division, and UAF spokesmen must maintain a unified line reinforcing the commitment to territorial integrity.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Armored Assault at Herasymivka (Delayed). HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF Vostok Group will likely launch the heavy armored assault from the Gaychur River bridgehead between 0900Z and 1200Z. The initial window for the thrust (aligned with the previous air attack) appears to have been missed or postponed. RF forces will aim to execute the maneuver before noon, minimizing exposure of the armored spearhead to UAF heavy fire in the afternoon light.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Deep Strike against Kyiv/Central C2. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. Following the initial targeting of Northern (Chernihiv) rear areas, RF utilizes residual long-range assets (e.g., Kalibr, Iskander) to execute a synchronized strike on a high-value command node or government target in Kyiv/Central Ukraine, aiming to maximize political shock concurrent with the diplomatic signaling (Miami talks) and the kinetic push in the South.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements