Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 05:06Z CONTEXT: RF forces are executing a broad, multi-domain retaliatory strike campaign across Ukraine while simultaneously preparing for an armored breakout attempt at the Herasymivka bridgehead (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).

Key updates since last sitrep

• (05:04Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Massed UAV Strike Hits Cherkasy. Confirmed drone strikes in Cherkasy Oblast resulted in 6 civilian casualties, expanding the RF punitive targeting deep into Central Ukraine. This confirms RF intent to maximize psychological and logistical pressure theater-wide.
• (04:50Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Continued Urban Targeting. A confirmed RF strike damaged a residential building in Zaporizhzhia City. This follows the brief cancellation of the air alert (04:40Z), indicating rapid strike renewal or persistent close-range artillery/S-300 fire.
• (04:44Z, UAF AF, HIGH): New Northern Threat Vector. A new Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) threat is detected heading toward Chernihiv City, necessitating the diversion of AD assets to the Northern axis.
• (05:00Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): RF Counter-UAV Claim (Polohy). RF Vostok Group claims successful engagement and destruction of UAF heavy hexacopter UAVs in the Polohy direction (Zaporizhzhia front). This suggests active RF counter-ISR/counter-logistics operations near the potential breakthrough axis.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational environment is defined by RF attempts to use high-volume aerial strikes to fix UAF attention and prevent reinforcement of the Gaychur River front.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia)

• Herasymivka Bridgehead (Unchanged): PIR 74 (Heavy armor crossing) remains unfulfilled. The situation is CRITICAL, but the RF Vostok Group has not yet committed mechanized forces.
• Zaporizhzhia Front: RF continues deliberate targeting of urban areas, using high explosive impact in residential zones to generate mass fear and disrupt C2 in the immediate rear. The brief lull in air activity (04:40Z) followed by immediate renewed explosions (04:44Z) suggests RF is attempting to exploit AD asset exhaustion or repositioning.
• Polohy Engagement: The RF claim of engaging heavy hexacopters near Polohy (SW of Hulyaypole) places the Vostok Group's advanced UAV teams actively combating UAF ISR/Logistics assets along the wider line of contact supporting the Herasymivka operation.

CENTRAL AXIS (Cherkasy)

• The strike on Cherkasy (05:04Z) represents a significant geographical expansion of the retaliatory campaign, striking a central city well removed from the front lines. This is assessed as intended to degrade UAF logistics routes running north-south/east-west and to disperse limited AD assets.

NORTHERN AXIS (Chernihiv)

• The confirmed UAV threat towards Chernihiv (04:44Z) suggests RF may be testing UAF AD response times or conducting reconnaissance in preparation for potential deeper strikes on Northern C2/infrastructure targets.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Aerial Campaign Adaptation (HIGH Confidence): The RF strategy has shifted from localized Southern infrastructure strikes (Mykolaiv/Odesa) to a geographically dispersed campaign (now including Cherkasy and threatening Chernihiv). This multi-axis pressure maximizes the attrition of limited UAF AD munitions and forces the UAF command structure to triage defense priorities.

2. Ground Maneuver Masking (CRITICAL Threat): The intense, geographically expansive aerial activity provides optimal masking for the final staging of the RF armored breakout at Herasymivka. The intelligence community-estimated window (NLT 0700Z-0830Z) for heavy armor commitment is rapidly approaching.

3. Command and Control (C2) Adaptations: The Vostok Group's use of dedicated counter-UAV teams (as claimed near Polohy) highlights RF adaptation against the persistent threat of UAF ISR/FPVs targeting their logistics and forward staging areas.

4. RF Internal Security Narrative (Assessment): The rapid dissemination of the FSB claim regarding the thwarted ‘terror attack’ in Volgodonsk (04:45Z, TASS/FSB, MEDIUM) is intended to counterbalance the successful UAF deep strikes (Rostov/Crimea) and project state control and security to the domestic audience.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces are primarily executing intensive AD operations across three distinct operational axes (South, Central, and now Northern).

• Logistics Stress: The expanded RF strike area, combined with the Artsyz outage, places extreme strain on UAF logistics planning and the dynamic movement of AD batteries.
• Morale/C2: The official recognition of Military Counterintelligence Day (05:03Z) is a deliberate effort to reinforce institutional strength and morale amidst high-tempo strikes.

Information environment / disinformation

The RF Information Campaign is currently focused on division and diversion:

1. Sowing Western Distrust: TASS amplification of the unverified Seymour Hersh claim regarding US intentions for Ukraine reconstruction revenue (04:43Z, LOW confidence claim) seeks to create friction between Kyiv and Western partners.
2. Historical Revisionism: The commemoration of historical figures like Stalin (04:42Z) reinforces aggressive, totalitarian ideological underpinnings for the war effort, targeting the RF domestic nationalist audience.
3. Projection of Competence: Use of security claims (Volgodonsk) and successful tactical video clips (Polohy) attempts to project operational control despite confirmed UAF deep penetration.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The tactical window for the RF ground maneuver at Herasymivka is closing. The operational focus shifts to determining if the widespread aerial attacks are genuinely preparatory or merely a punitive distraction.

MLCOA (RF): Coordinated Ground Maneuver (HIGH Confidence). RF forces will maintain the current intensity of air/drone strikes (Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv) to hold UAF reserves in place. The armored assault across the Gaychur River is expected NLT 0830Z. Failure to commit heavy armor by this time will suggest either major unforeseen RF logistical difficulties or a successful UAF counter-mobility operation isolating the bridgehead.

MDCOA (RF): Targeted Strike on AD/Logistics Hubs (MEDIUM Confidence). RF utilizes the cover of the drone wave to precisely target the logistical and AD hubs supporting the defense of the Herasymivka corridor (e.g., key rail nodes or identified C2 relay points in Dnipro Oblast) with long-range missile assets (Iskander/Kalibr) before the ground assault commences (NLT 0700Z).

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

PIR 74 remains the ultimate decision trigger. New requirements focus on confirming the impact of the expanded strike campaign and the new Northern threat.