Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 03:06Z Priority Focus: Confirmation of RF heavy armor deployment at Herasymivka bridgehead (PIR 74), following expiration of the NLT 03:00Z expected attack timeline. Assessment of escalating UAF deep strike effects on RF logistics.

Key updates since last sitrep

• (02:55Z, Два майора, MEDIUM): Unconfirmed UAF UAV attack on a tanker reported in the port of Rostov-on-Don, confirming continued UAF deep strike operations against critical RF maritime logistics infrastructure.
• (03:03Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Air Danger/Alert initiated across Zaporizhzhia Oblast, signaling sustained RF deep strike saturation intended to fix UAF reserves while ground maneuver options crystallize in the Southern Axis.
• (03:03Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces (Sever Grouping) successfully executed a UAV strike against a UAF shelter and ammunition cache in the Kharkiv border area, demonstrating persistent tactical pressure and improved near-border targeting.
• (03:00Z, РБК-Україна/Два майора, HIGH): US political signaling indicates a lack of immediate diplomatic focus on the conflict, as a major US political figure concluded a high-profile speech without mentioning Ukraine, potentially impacting long-term international support messaging.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational tempo is defined by the immediate post-03:00Z status at Herasymivka and the expanding domain of the deep strike campaign.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia)

• Herasymivka Bridgehead: The critical window for the confirmed armored thrust (NLT 03:00Z) has passed without visual confirmation of Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) crossing the Gaychur River (PIR 74). This suggests either a minimal operational delay or successful UAF pre-emptive fires degrading RF bridging/crossing capacity. UAF forces must maintain maximum defensive readiness for the next two hours.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: The confirmed air alert underscores the RF strategy of maximizing operational friction in UAF rear areas to disrupt C2 and reserve deployment, preventing the reinforcement of the Herasymivka flank.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kharkiv/Sumy/Border)

• RF forces are sustaining tactical pressure through targeted, high-precision UAV strikes (03:03Z). This attritional approach, potentially leveraging EW-resistant platforms, degrades UAF forward observation and prevents the effective repositioning of border protection units to the Southern Axis.

RF DEEP REAR (Strategic Response)

• The alleged strike on the Rostov-on-Don tanker (a key export hub) confirms UAF capability and intent to target economic and maritime logistics crucial to the RF war economy, following the precedent set by the Lipetsk AD alert. This widens the battlespace into the strategic logistics domain.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Herasymivka Ground Maneuver (CRITICAL): (HIGH Confidence) The absence of a confirmed crossing at 03:06Z does not negate the imminent threat. The Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA) is a delay to maximize preparatory fires/deep strikes or resolve minor engineering obstacles, with heavy armor crossing expected NLT 05:00Z. RF Vostok Group must exploit the tactical breach established west of the Gaychur River rapidly before UAF defenses solidify.

2. Deep Strike & Logistics Interdiction (ESCALATED THREAT): (HIGH Confidence) The targeting of a tanker in Rostov-on-Don signals a strategic escalation of UAF interdiction efforts against RF export capacity and maritime supply chains. This constitutes a direct economic threat and compels RF forces to prioritize air defense for commercial ports, degrading coverage over the Eastern Operational Area (EOA).

3. Tactical Adaptation Persistence (Northeast): (MEDIUM Confidence) RF use of localized, effective UAV strikes in the Kharkiv border region remains a persistent low-level threat, intended to keep UAF resources fixed. This tactical success suggests high proficiency in localized ISR/Strike synchronization.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces are currently in a reactive posture, maintaining maximum readiness at Herasymivka while simultaneously managing deep-strike effects in the rear (Zaporizhzhia). The successful execution of deep strikes against high-value RF targets (Rostov tanker) is a positive operational development, increasing friction on the RF war effort outside the immediate contact line. UAF forces must exploit the RF delay at Herasymivka to reinforce critical sectors.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment is shifting to exploit geopolitical fatigue and casualties:

1. Undermining Allied Resolve (CRITICAL): The lack of mention of Ukraine in US political discourse (03:00Z) fuels RF narratives of allied decline and isolation. UAF Information Operations must immediately counter this by highlighting enduring coalition support outside of single political speeches.
2. Casualty Exploitation: TASS report on the repatriated UK casualty (03:04Z) is a targeted psychological operation designed to erode UK political will for intervention and support, leveraging sensitive domestic news for strategic effect.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate outlook is defined by the expected culmination of the Herasymivka operation and the anticipated RF response to UAF deep strikes.

MLCOA (RF): Heavy Armor Commitment NLT 0500Z, Coupled with Retaliatory Deep Strikes. RF Vostok Group will push heavy armor across the Gaychur River into the Herasymivka bridgehead after the completion of preparatory fires, aiming for a tactical breakout before noon. Simultaneously, RF aerospace forces will conduct a sustained punitive strike wave against UAF critical infrastructure (energy, C2 centers) in response to the Rostov and Lipetsk incidents.

MDCOA (RF): Operational Breach and Northward Thrust. If UAF defenses are sufficiently degraded by the sustained air saturation, RF forces could commit strategic reserves immediately following the crossing, bypassing typical consolidation phases and driving an armored spearhead north toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border, bypassing UAF defensive nodes to force a large-scale retreat.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The primary gap (PIR 74) remains the singular most critical intelligence requirement. New collection efforts must confirm the effects of the UAF deep strikes.