Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 02:36Z Priority Focus: Imminent armored assault at Herasymivka (Southern Axis).

Key updates since last sitrep

• (02:13Z, Igor Artamonov, HIGH): RF authorities officially declared an "Air Danger Regime" across Lipetsk Oblast. This confirms UAF or aligned forces' long-range kinetic/ISR activity deep within RF territory, significantly challenging RF air defense (AD) integrity well outside the immediate operational area.
• (02:35Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces operating under the "Sever" grouping documented a successful FPV drone strike utilizing fiber-optic cable guidance against a UAF observation post in the border area. This demonstrates RF technical adaptation to defeat UAF electronic warfare (EW) jamming capabilities in localized tactical engagements.
• (02:13Z, TASS, HIGH): RF state media launched targeted propaganda featuring a Kupyansk resident alleging UAF war crimes. This is a direct information warfare effort intended to undermine UAF legitimacy, particularly relevant as UAF forces claim 90% control of Kupyansk city.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational tempo remains high across the Eastern and Southern Axes, dominated by the RF deep strike campaign designed to set conditions for the anticipated armored assault at Herasymivka, scheduled NLT 03:00Z (T-minus 24 minutes).

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia)

• Herasymivka Bridgehead: No kinetic updates received since the 02:06Z SitRep. The window for the critical armored thrust remains open and imminent. All UAF assets remain at high readiness for the crossing attempt on the Gaychur River (PIR 74). C2 integrity is being tested by sustained deep strikes.
• Deep Strike Synchronization: The deep strike synchronization campaign (KABs/UAVs/Missiles) targeting infrastructure and C2/Logistics nodes remains the primary operational effect applied by the RF Vostok Group, aimed at maximizing friction prior to the ground advance.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kharkiv/Sumy/Border)

• Tactical Adaptation: Confirmed RF use of fiber-optic guided FPV drones suggests a direct countermeasure deployed against high-density UAF EW environments along the border. This capability bypasses GPS jamming and standard radio frequency denial techniques, posing an elevated threat to UAF fixed observation posts (OPs) and tactical C2 nodes.

RF DEEP REAR (Strategic Response)

• The implementation of the Air Danger Regime in Lipetsk Oblast (over 400km from the nearest contact line) confirms that UAF deep-strike capabilities are having an operational effect by forcing RF AD and C2 to react to non-standard or unconventional aerial platforms far from the theater of operations. This further fragments RF AD resource allocation.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Herasymivka Armored Assault (CRITICAL - IMMINENT): (HIGH Confidence) The MLCOA remains the armored thrust. The next 24 minutes are decisive. RF forces are postured for immediate execution of the breach plan.

2. Tactical FPV Evolution (ELEVATED THREAT - NEW): (MEDIUM Confidence) The documented use of fiber-optic FPV guidance by the "Sever" grouping increases the lethality of tactical UAV operations in EW-dense zones. This technology demands an immediate update to UAF OP/C2 hardening protocols and defensive counter-measures, as traditional EW is ineffective against this specific platform guidance method.

3. Deep Strike Operational Reach (ELEVATED THREAT): (HIGH Confidence) The Lipetsk alert, while not confirmed as a successful strike, proves UAF deep-strike platforms are operating far behind the primary contact line. This forces the RF to commit AD assets away from the Eastern Operational Area (EOA) and confirms the strategic vulnerability of their industrial and military rear.

4. Command & Control: No new indicators suggesting RF C2 failure. Sustained hybrid operations (deep strikes, ground maneuver, IW) suggest robust synchronization.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces are primarily focused on maintaining C2 integrity and readiness for the impending ground maneuver in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The confirmed deep strike activity targeting the RF rear (Lipetsk inference) is positive, as it creates decision dilemmas for RF commanders regarding resource allocation. However, UAF forces along the Northeastern/Border sector must immediately adjust tactical defensive protocols in response to the RF’s deployment of jamming-resistant FPV drones.

Information environment / disinformation

RF information strategy continues to pursue two main lines of effort:

1. Undermining Legitimacy: The Kupyansk propaganda (TASS, 02:13Z) directly attempts to neutralize UAF claims of victory and territorial reclamation by painting UAF forces as criminal, targeting domestic RF and neutral international audiences.
2. Global Distraction: Reports focusing on Venezuela/US tensions (02:09Z) are utilized to project an image of global instability and draw focus away from the critical battlefield developments in Ukraine.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The tactical outlook for the next hour is CRITICAL.

1. Southern Decision Point (0300Z - 0400Z): (HIGH Confidence) The armored thrust at Herasymivka is expected to commence. If PIR 74 (heavy armor crossing) is confirmed, the battle intensity in Dnipropetrovsk will escalate immediately to maximum levels. The MLCOA remains the exploitation of the bridgehead.

2. Sustained Deep Strike Saturation (0230Z - 0600Z): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will sustain KAB/UAV/Missile strikes, likely continuing to focus on Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and infrastructure nodes (Mykolaiv/Odesa) to maximize strategic friction and prevent reserve deployment.

3. Border Skirmishing (Ongoing): (MEDIUM Confidence) Expect increased RF FPV/ISR operations along the Northeast border, potentially utilizing the newly observed fiber-optic capabilities to target high-value, static UAF assets (Artillery C2, AD sites, OPs).

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The primary gap (PIR 74) remains the singular most critical intelligence requirement. New collection efforts must address the technical adaptation by the RF and the implications of the Lipetsk AD alert.