Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 01:36Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (01:15Z, OBA): RF forces conducted an overnight kinetic attack targeting energy infrastructure in Mykolaiv Oblast. This confirms RF intent to expand the deep interdiction campaign westward along the Southern Operational Area logistics corridor. (HIGH Confidence)
• (01:20Z, UAF AF): Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) were launched toward Kharkiv Oblast from the North. This confirms a further geographical expansion of the high-payload glide bomb campaign, now actively engaging targets across the Northeast (Sumy, Kharkiv) and potentially aiming to draw AD assets away from critical Southern/Eastern sectors. (HIGH Confidence)
• (01:36Z, Analysis): The critical operational window for the anticipated heavy armored assault at Herasymivka (NLT 0300Z) is now T-minus 94 minutes. No indicators (PIR 74) have confirmed pre-breach movement. (HIGH Confidence)

Operational picture (by sector)

The current operational phase is defined by the RF synchronized deep strike campaign intended to set conditions for the imminent ground maneuver assault along the Southern Axis. UAF AD is engaged theater-wide.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia)

• Mykolaiv Oblast: Energy infrastructure damage confirmed. While immediate functional status is pending BDA, this strike poses a significant threat to regional logistics and power supply reliance, particularly impacting rail lines supporting the Odesa corridor (which is already stressed by the Artsyz outage).
• Herasymivka Bridgehead (Dnipropetrovsk): Status unchanged since 01:00Z. RF forces are assessed as positioned for the armored thrust. The failure to secure PIR 74 confirmation complicates operational reserve planning; reserves must remain highly flexible and capable of immediate deployment upon confirmation of armor crossing the Gaychur River.
• Odesa District: BDA (PIR 101) remains pending from the earlier strikes (00:44Z). UAF AD engagement rate indicates high volume threat saturation.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kharkiv, Sumy)

• Kharkiv Oblast: The introduction of KAB strikes into the Kharkiv sector (following recent strikes in Sumy) signifies a strategic RF decision to use high-payload, fixed-wing assets to fix UAF forces and complicate C2 responsiveness across the entire eastern half of the theater. Targets are likely rear area logistics or C2 nodes.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Deep Strike Synchronization (MDCOA in effect): (HIGH Confidence) The RF deep strike campaign is demonstrably synchronized and multi-domain, stretching UAF AD coverage across Odesa, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. The priority targets are assessed as logistics/energy nodes (Mykolaiv, Odesa) and rear-area C2/logistics hubs susceptible to KABs (Sumy, Kharkiv). This tactical saturation is the primary pre-condition setting for the ground assault.

2. Herasymivka Ground Assault (MLCOA - Imminent): (HIGH Confidence) The armored breakout from the Herasymivka bridgehead remains the single most critical and immediate threat. All kinetic action observed since 00:30Z is assessed as supporting this maneuver by generating operational friction and degrading UAF reaction time. RF intent is assessed as launching the major attack NLT 0300Z.

3. Logistics Sustainment (RF): (MEDIUM Confidence) The Rostov tanker incident (previous sitrep) remains an unconfirmed disruption. However, the confirmed RF utilization of high-payload KABs across multiple sectors indicates that aerial munition stocks (P-3 capability assessed as HIGH) are currently robust enough to support this geographically ambitious campaign.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Defense forces are under severe pressure, responding to confirmed strikes in Mykolaiv, Odesa, and KAB launches toward Kharkiv and Sumy. Ground units in the Southern Operational Area remain fixed in defensive posture, adhering to the plan to commit strategic reserves only upon confirmation of RF heavy armor crossing at Herasymivka (PIR 74). Maintaining AD readiness in the face of widespread strikes is paramount to preserving C2 integrity for the impending ground conflict.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment remains aligned with the kinetic escalation phase. RF state media continues to amplify narratives designed to distract from operational escalation and project the image of a globally unstable security environment (e.g., U.S. political instability, general Western internal division). The generic video message (01:35Z, Colonelcassad) indicates continued, albeit non-specific, morale and propaganda efforts directed at the Russian domestic audience.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The period between 01:36Z and 03:00Z is the decision window for UAF command regarding reserve commitment versus the potential RF breakout.

1. Herasymivka Ground Assault (0300Z): (HIGH Confidence) The MLCOA remains the heavy armored push across the Gaychur River bridgehead. If this event is initiated, the level of combat intensity in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast will immediately rise to CRITICAL. UAF counter-mobility fires must be prepared to engage crossing points immediately.

2. Deep Strike Consolidation (0100Z - 0400Z): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will likely sustain or slightly increase the rate of deep strikes (UAV/Missile/KAB) targeting infrastructure in the Southern and Northeastern Oblasts to maintain the operational friction required to paralyze UAF response capabilities until the Herasymivka assault is launched and consolidated.

3. Reserve Commitment: (HIGH Confidence) The decision to commit strategic reserves to the Southern Axis will likely occur NLT 03:30Z, assuming PIR 74 is satisfied. This commitment will expose other axes (e.g., Siversk, Kupyansk) to potentially increased RF pressure should the RF employ reserves waiting for the outcome of the Herasymivka breakthrough attempt.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The core gap remains kinetic confirmation of the ground assault. New gaps relate to the assessment of deep strike effects on critical infrastructure.