Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (00:44Z, ASTRA): Confirmed RF strike in Odesa district resulting in 7 civilian casualties and damage to residential and educational infrastructure. This indicates the kinetic phase of the deep strike MDCOA is currently active, slightly preceding the NLT 0400Z projection. (HIGH Confidence)
• (00:58Z, UAF AF): RF launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) toward Sumy Oblast. This confirms the expansion of the RF high-payload glide bomb campaign beyond the immediate frontline and Zaporizhzhia, aiming to disrupt the UAF operational rear in the Northeast. (HIGH Confidence)
• (00:40Z, 00:46Z, ASTRA/Операция Z): An attack on a tanker in Rostov-on-Don resulted in confirmed casualties (dead/injured). The specific vector or perpetrator of the attack remains UNCONFIRMED, but the event is actively being amplified in the RF Information Environment. (MEDIUM Confidence)
• (00:39Z, Alex Parker): RF Information Operations (IO) continue to amplify narratives regarding US political instability (Venezuela resolution) as part of the strategic diversion campaign established in the previous sitrep. (HIGH Confidence)

Operational picture (by sector)

The current operational window (00:30Z - 01:00Z) is characterized by RF kinetic action in the deep rear, while the expected ground assault at Herasymivka remains pending.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa)

• Herasymivka Bridgehead (Dnipropetrovsk): Status unchanged. The critical window for the heavy armor assault remains NLT 0300Z. UAF forces must maintain heightened readiness and prepare pre-planned artillery fires. PIR 74 remains outstanding.
• Odesa District: Confirmed strikes have hit targets in the Odesa district, causing civilian injuries and infrastructure damage. The attack composition (missile vs. high-volume UAV) is currently under assessment, but the effects align with the expected MDCOA targeting of C2 and logistics rear areas. UAF AD is engaged.
• Rostov-on-Don (Logistics Rear): Damage to a tanker is reported in the RF logistical rear, potentially degrading maritime or rail logistics associated with the Southern Axis supply chain, though the immediate impact is difficult to gauge.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Sumy)

• Sumy Oblast: The use of KABs against targets in Sumy Oblast signals a shift in RF aerial tactics in this region. This requires immediate reassessment of UAF air defense coverage and warning protocols for the northern administrative centers, which were previously spared high-volume guided bomb strikes.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Deep Strike Campaign (MDCOA): (HIGH Confidence) The deep strike campaign is active, confirmed by damage and casualties in Odesa district and KAB launches toward Sumy. The simultaneous targeting across widely separated axes (South and Northeast) is designed to stretch UAF AD and force internal reserve commitment decisions away from the critical Herasymivka bridgehead.

2. Ground Threat (MLCOA - Herasymivka): (HIGH Confidence) The ground threat remains critical. The RF intent is assessed as waiting for the deep strike campaign to maximize UAF C2 disruption before committing the heavy armored spearhead at 0300Z. No pre-breach indicators (pontoon bridges, heavy armor movement) have been confirmed by new messages.

3. Logistics Sustainment (RF): (MEDIUM Confidence) The Rostov tanker incident, regardless of attribution, represents a localized disruption in RF logistical flow. If confirmed as a targeted UAF operation, it suggests an extended reach and increased capability to strike high-value, previously secure RF assets.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Defense (AD) assets are actively engaging threats across the Southern Operational Area, as confirmed by damage reports, which reflect some successful penetration. UAF Air Force reports confirm active monitoring of the RF KAB campaign directed at Sumy. Tactical UAF ground forces remain fixed in defensive positions awaiting the anticipated 0300Z assault at Herasymivka.

Information environment / disinformation

RF IO strategy continues to operate in concert with the kinetic escalation phase:

1. Distraction/Chaos Projection: Continued amplification of the PM Fico incident and newly confirmed U.S. political narratives (Venezuela resolution) to project global instability and divert attention from the escalation in Ukraine.
2. Internal Consolidation: The reporting of the Rostov tanker casualties frames the event as an external 'attack' (implied Ukrainian/Western origin), which supports the domestic narrative of ongoing conflict necessity.
3. Low-Level Diversion: TASS reports on trivial domestic legislative proposals (Christmas lights fines) are likely intended to saturate the domestic media space.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate next 90 minutes (until 0300Z) represent the highest risk window for the operational breakout at Herasymivka.

1. Herasymivka Ground Assault (0300Z): (HIGH Confidence) The RF armored thrust remains the most likely immediate kinetic event. Confirmation of heavy armor crossing the Gaychur River will trigger the operational reserve commitment.

2. Deep Strike Continuation (0100Z - 0400Z): (HIGH Confidence) The missile/UAV attack initiated in Odesa will likely continue, prioritizing soft infrastructure and C2 nodes that survived the initial UAV wave, particularly around Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, leveraging the depletion of UAF AD interceptors.

3. KAB Campaign Maintenance: (MEDIUM Confidence) RF air forces will likely sustain the KAB attacks on Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts throughout daylight hours to maximize operational fixing effects and prevent UAF reserve movement.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The primary gaps remain the kinetic confirmation of the ground assault and the detailed assessment of the deep strike damage.