Situation Report

Situation Update (00:36Z, 18 DEC 2025)

This report provides an update focused on the immediate kinetic window (NLT 0300Z/0400Z) in the Southern Operational Area, supplemented by emerging strategic information operations (IO) by the Russian Federation (RF).

Key updates since last sitrep

The critical window for RF ground assault and strategic missile strikes remains the defining factor; no new kinetic updates are available. The primary changes are in the Information Environment.

• (00:33Z, ТАСС, HIGH) RF state media is amplifying reports of serious damage to Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s aircraft at Brussels Airport. This event is being utilized by the RF to divert international attention from the impending escalation in Ukraine.
• (00:21Z, ТАСС, MEDIUM) RF state media highlighted US Congress rejection of resolutions seeking to cease US military operations against drug cartels and Venezuela, framing this as Western operational distraction.
• The two Primary Intelligence Requirements (PIR 74 & PIR 101) regarding the Herasymivka heavy armor crossing (NLT 0300Z) and the high-volume missile strike (NLT 0400Z) remain outstanding.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational environment remains defined by the terminal preparatory phase for the RF decisive operation. UAF assets are fixed by the ongoing precursor UAV wave across Zaporizhzhia and Odesa Oblasts.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa)

The RF strategy of synchronizing a deep-strike campaign with a focused ground breakthrough is unchanged.

• Herasymivka Bridgehead (Dnipropetrovsk): The projected timeline for the RF heavy armored assault (MLCOA) remains NLT 0300Z. UAF forces must maintain the highest state of readiness, with artillery pre-positioned for counter-crossing fires.
• Odesa District / Zaporizhzhia: UAF Air Defense continues engagement operations against the persistent UAV wave, which is assessed as deliberately designed to expend interceptors ahead of the projected cruise/ballistic missile attack (NLT 0400Z).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Ground Threat (MLCOA - Herasymivka): (HIGH Confidence) The most critical immediate threat remains the RF armored spearhead. If heavy armor crosses the Gaychur River bridgehead into the 1km deep breach, it will necessitate the immediate commitment of UAF operational reserves. RF intent is to exploit the breach before sunrise, maximizing surprise and minimizing UAF ISR effectiveness in low light.

2. Deep Strike Threat (MDCOA - Missile Strike): (HIGH Confidence) The high-volume missile strike targeting UAF C2 and logistics in the operational rear (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa infrastructure) is expected NLT 0400Z. The primary threat is the depletion of UAF AD interceptors against the ongoing UAV wave, leaving high-value assets exposed to the follow-on missile salvo.

3. Information Operations (IO) Assessment (NEW): RF media amplification of the Fico aircraft incident is a high-priority, short-term IO objective. It serves to: a. Divert Attention: Shift international media focus away from the impending major ground/missile escalation in Ukraine. b. Project Western Chaos: Suggest that even critical allied logistical operations (like air travel for summits) are fundamentally unstable, weakening NATO/EU confidence.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF AD units are operating at high tempo, rationing interceptors while prioritizing protection of key C2 and logistics nodes against the UAV wave. Ground force preparations for the NLT 0300Z assault must remain the top tactical priority. UAF command must prepare for simultaneous C2 degradation due to the 0400Z missile threat.

Information environment / disinformation

The RF IO campaign has pivoted rapidly to capitalize on the international incident involving PM Fico. This highly distracting narrative, amplified immediately by state media (TASS), is synchronized with ongoing domestic narratives (migration policy, Rostov success) designed to project control internally while achieving maximum external distraction during the kinetic escalation period. UAF spokespersons should anticipate and be prepared to redirect focus back to the imminent threat at Herasymivka and the ongoing missile terror campaign.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The next six hours are defined by the convergence of the RF MLCOA and MDCOA timelines.

1. Herasymivka Ground Assault (0300Z): (HIGH Confidence) RF armored forces are expected to launch the operation breakout from the bridgehead. UAF forces must hold current defensive lines and initiate pre-planned counter-mobility fires.

2. Strategic Missile Strike (0400Z): (HIGH Confidence) High-volume precision strikes will target the UAF operational rear, specifically critical logistics (Artsyz/Odesa district) and C2 nodes. AD assets must prioritize protection of known C2 infrastructure and critical power distribution points.

3. IO Environment: (HIGH Confidence) RF will continue to leverage the Fico incident and US political news to maintain cognitive saturation, attempting to isolate Kyiv diplomatically during the period of peak kinetic activity.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The immediate collection focus remains on confirming the NLT 0300Z ground assault and assessing the effectiveness of UAF AD against the precursor UAV wave.