Situation Report

Situation Update (00:06Z, 18 DEC 2025)

This report provides an urgent update on the converging timelines of the Russian Federation’s (RF) strategic retaliation (MDCOA) and the heavy ground maneuver (MLCOA) at Herasymivka, following the expansion of kinetic activity into Odesa Oblast.

Key updates since last sitrep

• (23:47Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH) MDCOA Scope Expansion (Odesa): RF drone strikes have caused seven confirmed civilian casualties in the Odesa district, per the Oblast Military Administration (OVA). This confirms that the strategic retaliation kinetic operation has expanded its geographic scope, targeting C2 and logistics across the entire Southern Operational Area.
• (00:00Z, ТАСС, HIGH) Rostov Tanker BDA Confirmed: RF state media confirms that the vessel struck by UAF in Rostov-on-Don was a tanker. The fire is being extinguished, with confirmed fatalities and injuries. Authorities claim a major spillage of petroleum products was avoided, minimizing the environmental impact.
• (23:51Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM) RF Internal IO Focus: Russian media and influential military bloggers are shifting focus to internal political narratives (e.g., migration policy) concurrent with the execution of the deep strike, assessed as an effort to project domestic stability and divert attention following the successful UAF strike on Rostov.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational environment is characterized by the RF attempting to reach saturation in the Cognitive (IO) and Deep Strike (Air/Missile) domains prior to the highly anticipated heavy armored ground assault.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa)

RF strategy is designed to maximize distraction and resource expenditure in the UAF operational rear, isolating the Herasymivka bridgehead defense force from reinforcements and effective AD coverage.

• Herasymivka Bridgehead (Dnipropetrovsk): The critical window for the RF heavy armored assault (MLCOA) remains NLT 0300Z (approx. 2 hours 54 minutes from this report). The current deep strikes serve as the terminal preparatory fire phase.
• Odesa District: Confirmed drone impacts causing casualties underscore the vulnerability of the region, which is the primary logistics gateway (Artsyz/Ports) for UAF Southern reserves. The immediate priority is the defense of critical logistics nodes against the ongoing drone wave.
• Zaporizhzhia City: The UAV wave reported earlier is ongoing, fixing UAF AD assets and softening potential follow-on targets for the NLT 0400Z missile strike.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Strategic Retaliation (MDCOA) Assessment: The multi-pronged deep strike targeting (Zaporizhzhia + Odesa) confirms the RF intent to stretch UAF AD and C2 resources to their operational limit. The immediate threat is resource depletion, specifically the consumption of interceptors against the precursor drone wave ahead of the high-value cruise/ballistic missile attack.

2. Logistics Interdiction: Targeting Odesa district suggests RF is prioritizing the disruption of the strategic supply chain supporting the Dnipropetrovsk defense. While Artsyz rail power is already degraded, strikes in the general district complicate the movement of UAF reserves and alternative logistics via highway and diesel rail switchers.

3. Intentions Synchronization: The timing of the strikes strongly indicates RF intent to initiate the Herasymivka breakthrough (0300Z) while UAF AD and C2 nodes are fully preoccupied or degraded by the strategic missile attack expected shortly thereafter (0400Z). This level of synchronization suggests high C2 capability within the RF Operational Grouping.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Defense units across the Southern Operational Area are currently executing high-tempo engagement operations against incoming RF UAVs. The necessity to prioritize protection of population centers (Odesa, Zaporizhzhia) over forward deployed military assets poses a critical tactical dilemma, potentially diverting resources needed to shield the Herasymivka defense against potential RF strike aviation. UAF ground forces must adhere strictly to established defense plans, maintaining the focus on repelling the ground threat at 0300Z.

Information environment / disinformation

RF information operations (IO) are currently focused on two objectives:

1. Narrative Control: Leveraging the confirmed BDA and casualties in Rostov to legitimize the ongoing retaliation strikes as necessary self-defense.
2. Domestic Stability Projection: Shifting prominent milblogger attention to internal, non-military topics (e.g., migration policy), designed to reassure the domestic audience of political control and stability amidst external conflict. This suggests high confidence in the success of the ongoing kinetic operations.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The next six hours are defined by the peak kinetic threat, requiring maximum alertness and resource management.

MDCOA (High-Volume Missile Strike): (HIGH Confidence) RF strategic forces will launch high-volume precision strikes against C2 and logistics assets in Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and potentially Odesa infrastructure NLT 0400Z. AD assets must maximize interceptor conservation while minimizing operational exposure to the UAV wave.

MLCOA (Armored Breakout at Herasymivka): (HIGH Confidence) The armored spearhead is expected to cross the Gaychur River at the Herasymivka bridgehead NLT 0300Z. Confirmed crossing of MBTs/IFVs will trigger the commitment of UAF operational reserves.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The immediate collection focus is on confirming the NLT 0300Z ground assault and assessing the damage inflicted on the critical Southern logistics corridor (Odesa/Artsyz) by the expanding MDCOA strikes.