Situation Report

Situation Update (23:36Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This report integrates multi-domain intelligence, focusing on the immediate escalation of RF kinetic activity targeting UAF rear areas, potentially preceding the anticipated ground maneuver at the Herasymivka bridgehead and fulfilling the criteria for the anticipated strategic retaliation (MDCOA).

Key updates since last sitrep

• (23:13Z, Air Force AFU, HIGH) UAV Wave Initiated: Multiple RF UAVs detected inbound to Zaporizhzhia from the Southern axis. This confirms the initiation of the anticipated strategic retaliation sequence following the Rostov strike, designed to suppress UAF AD and fix resources away from the Southern frontline.
• (23:32Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM) Allied Asset Confiscation Friction: Reports indicate diplomatic disagreement between the US and European partners regarding the total confiscation of frozen Russian assets. This suggests a potential political fracture in the sanctions regime, impacting long-term financial pressure on RF.
• (23:12Z, ТАСС, LOW) Czech Symbolic Support Claim: RF media claims the Ukrainian flag was removed from the Czech Ministry of Internal Affairs building. This unconfirmed report is immediately being leveraged by Russian Information Operations (IO) to propagate a narrative of declining European solidarity.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia)

RF strategy remains focused on achieving preconditions for the decisive ground assault at Herasymivka (MLCOA) while simultaneously executing strategic punishment for the UAF Rostov strike (MDCOA).

• Herasymivka Bridgehead (Dnipropetrovsk): The timeline for the armored assault NLT 0300Z remains the highest priority ground threat. There are no indications of delay.
• Zaporizhzhia City Rear Area: The confirmed launch of UAVs toward Zaporizhzhia (23:13Z) signals RF intent to interdict the key UAF logistics and C2 hub supporting the defense of the Dnipropropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border. UAF AD is currently tasked with engaging this wave.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Strategic Retaliation (MDCOA Triggered): The UAV wave targeting Zaporizhzhia is assessed as the kinetic precursor to the major RF retaliatory strike. This confirms MDCOA is currently being executed. The immediate tactical threat is the UAVs serving as AD fixation targets or reconnaissance before heavier cruise/ballistic missile assets are launched against C2 centers or airfields NLT 0400Z.

2. Ground Maneuver Synchronization: The timing of the deep kinetic strike into Zaporizhzhia is strategically synchronized to maximize chaos and resource expenditure in the UAF operational rear, providing cover for the anticipated heavy armored breakthrough at Herasymivka. This indicates a highly coordinated RF plan marrying deep strike and ground maneuver.

3. Logistics Strangulation: RF maintains pressure on the logistics spine (Voznesensk, Artsyz) ensuring UAF reserves face severe resupply constraints when committed to the Herasymivka defense.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense Posture: UAF AD units in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk sectors are currently engaged in identifying and neutralizing the inbound UAV threat, consuming finite interceptor resources.
• Operational Readiness: UAF units defending the Gaychur River line must maintain maximum readiness, understanding that the current rear-area strikes are designed to maximize distraction ahead of the NLT 0300Z ground assault.

Information environment / disinformation

The IO environment is focused on negating the impact of the UAF Rostov strike and exploiting real or perceived fractures in international support.

• RF Targeting Narratives: RF continues to frame its retaliatory strikes as justified responses to "terrorism," utilizing the initial UAV wave to gather data for follow-on missile strikes which will likely be framed as precision targeting of military infrastructure.
• Allied Cohesion: The reported US opposition to outright asset confiscation introduces a potential vulnerability in the international coalition's unified economic front against RF (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.28, Disagreement on Outright confiscation).
• Symbolic Support Erosion: The TASS claim regarding the Czech MVD is a low-confidence tactical IO effort aimed at degrading morale and promoting a sense of abandonment among the Ukrainian population (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.10, Decrease in Symbolic Support).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The next six hours represent the zenith of the immediate threat window, defined by the convergence of the kinetic MDCOA and the armored MLCOA.

MDCOA (Strategic Retaliation): (HIGH Confidence) Following the initial UAV wave, RF Strategic Forces will execute high-volume missile strikes against priority target sets (C2 nodes, Airfields, Major Logistics Hubs, specifically Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia) NLT 0400Z. This wave will be severe, utilizing long-range precision weapons (Cruise, Ballistic).

MLCOA (Armored Breakout at Herasymivka): (HIGH Confidence) RF ground forces will initiate the heavy armored assault across the Gaychur River at the Herasymivka bridgehead NLT 0300Z. The preceding air strikes are designed to reduce UAF AD and C2 effectiveness in reacting to this breakthrough.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements