Situation Report

Situation Update (23:06Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This report integrates multi-domain intelligence, focusing on the immediate escalation following the UAF deep strike on Rostov-on-Don and the sustained RF logistics strangulation campaign. The window for the predicted RF ground maneuver (PIR 74) is rapidly closing.

Key updates since last sitrep

• (22:36Z, ТАСС, HIGH) Rostov Port Vessel Damage Confirmed with Casualties: RF authorities confirmed damage to a vessel in the Port of Rostov-on-Don due to the UAF strike, with reported casualties among the crew/personnel. This confirms success against a military/logistics objective (PIR 100 met in part).
• (22:37Z, ТАСС, HIGH) Bataysk Civilian Casualty Update: The confirmed civilian injury count in Bataysk (Rostov Oblast) increased to four, supporting the RF immediate information operation (IO) focus on civilian targeting.
• (22:40Z, Operatyvny ZSU, HIGH) New Strike Axis: Voznesensk: RF forces initiated a kinetic strike against energy infrastructure in Voznesensk, Mykolaiv Oblast, expanding the sustained logistics disruption campaign further west along the Southern Operational Axis.
• (22:44Z, RBK-U, HIGH) Voznesensk Cascading Failure: The energy strike in Voznesensk resulted in the shutdown of water treatment facilities, causing water supply disruption in parts of the city. This confirms successful RF execution of cascading infrastructure failure targeting.
• (22:38Z, Operatyvny ZSU, HIGH) Cherkasy Civilian Infrastructure Hit: Damage to civilian infrastructure in Cherkasy Oblast is confirmed, validating the success of the RF AD fixation campaign in the Central Operational Command area.
• (23:03Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH) RF Propaganda PSYOPS: The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video of a captured UAF serviceman detailing desertion and mass surrender, aimed at degrading UAF morale following the Rostov deep strike success.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv)

RF strategy is focused on isolating the Herasymivka bridgehead (PIR 74) and denying UAF rapid deployment of reserves.

• Voznesensk (Mykolaiv Oblast): The confirmed strike against energy infrastructure (22:40Z) highlights RF intent to disrupt rail and road logistical flow into the Southern Operational Area, potentially targeting traction power or C2 nodes near the city. The subsequent water supply cutoff creates immediate civil-military constraints, fixing resources away from the front.
• Herasymivka Bridgehead: No direct change. All enabling conditions (logistics interdiction, AD suppression) are now in place or have been significantly advanced. The time-to-attack window (NLT 0300Z) remains critical.

CENTRAL AXIS (Cherkasy)

• The confirmed infrastructure hit (22:38Z) maintains pressure on UAF AD and ensures that AD resources are tied down in the central rear, preventing their redeployment south to counter the impending ground maneuver or defend critical supply hubs (Kryvyi Rih, Voznesensk).

Deep Rear (Rostov-on-Don, RF)

• Rostov Port: The confirmed damage to a vessel and casualties validate UAF deep-strike capability against a vital military-commercial logistics hub supporting the Southern Group of Forces. This constitutes a significant operational success for UAF.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Logistics Strangulation and Disruption (CRITICAL THREAT): RF has successfully expanded its logistics denial campaign to a new key node, Voznesensk, while maintaining severe pressure on Kryvyi Rih and Odesa. The confirmed ability to cause cascading failures (energy to water supply) significantly complicates UAF crisis response and resource management ahead of the ground assault.

2. Retaliatory Strike Likelihood (IMMINENT): The confirmation of casualties and kinetic damage to a vessel at the strategic Port of Rostov-on-Don significantly increases the probability of a major RF retaliatory missile/KAB campaign. We assess the window for this large-scale kinetic response to be within the next six hours. The immediate, coordinated information campaign (focusing on Bataysk casualties) supports this escalation.

3. Ground Maneuver Timeline: Intelligence indicators continue to point toward a synchronized ground maneuver at Herasymivka NLT 0300Z. RF has achieved the necessary operational pre-conditions (disruption and fixation). No delay indicators have been registered in the last hour.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Deep Strike Success (Strategic): UAF successfully executed a high-value strike (PIR 98/100) against Rostov Port, imposing physical damage and logistical risk on RF sustainment lines.

2. Air Defense Performance: UAF AD forces successfully contained the immediate UAV wave targeting Mykolaiv Oblast (22:48Z), indicating effective tactical defense. However, the multi-axis saturation strategy demands high resource expenditure.

Information environment / disinformation

The IO battle has intensified immediately following the Rostov strike.

• Narrative Control: RF messaging is tightly controlled, focusing exclusively on civilian losses (Bataysk injuries) while confirming the military target damage (Rostov vessel) only implicitly.
• PSYOPS Deployment: The rapid deployment of the captured UAF serviceman video (23:03Z) is a deliberate, synchronized psychological operation (PSYOPS) aimed at negating the morale lift provided by the Rostov deep strike and further exploiting internal UAF vulnerabilities (desertion, morale decline).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate threat is the conjunction of the anticipated armored assault in the South and a strategic retaliatory strike in the deep rear.

MLCOA (Armored Breakout at Herasymivka): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will launch their armored assault, committing heavy armor across the Gaychur River at the Herasymivka bridgehead NLT 0300Z. This will be supported by continued pressure on logistics hubs (Kryvyi Rih, Voznesensk) and ongoing AD fixation campaigns.

MDCOA (Strategic Retaliation): (HIGH Confidence - Raised from MEDIUM) A major RF strategic missile/KAB strike wave against key UAF C2 centers, airfields, or major logistics hubs (e.g., Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia) is highly likely NLT 0400Z in direct retaliation for the Rostov strike. This action will be framed by RF as "punishment for terrorism."

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements