Situation Report

Situation Update (22:36Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (22:07Z, ASTRA, HIGH) UAF Deep Strike Confirmed (Rostov): The Governor of Rostov Oblast confirmed a UAS attack on the region (Rostov-on-Don and Bataysk). This confirms the retaliatory deep strike operation hinted at previously (PIR 98).
• (22:13Z, TASS, HIGH) Rostov/Bataysk BDA: RF sources confirm kinetic impacts damaging a multi-story residential building and two private homes, reinforcing the RF narrative of civilian targeting.
• (22:34Z, Operatyvny ZSU, MEDIUM) Rostov Port Vessel Damage: UAF sources claim a vessel in the Port of Rostov was damaged by the strike. If confirmed, this indicates successful targeting of a key military/logistics node, not just residential areas.
• (22:16Z, Vilkul, HIGH) Kryvyi Rih Casualties Updated: Confirmed two civilians wounded (M/58, F/67) in the ongoing RF Shahed attack on Kryvyi Rih.
• (22:10Z, RBK-U, HIGH) Sumy Kinetic Impact/Casualties: Confirmed at least one person injured in Sumy Oblast due to the RF UAV infiltration wave reported previously (21:50Z).
• (22:32Z, RBK-U, HIGH) Cherkasy Attack Sustained: Confirmed ongoing drone attack against Cherkasy Oblast, sustaining kinetic pressure on the Central Operational Axis.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih)

RF continues to inflict sustained damage, confirming the degradation of rear area logistics and morale support.

• Kryvyi Rih: The updated casualty count (2) confirms the tactical lethality of the saturation strike. RF propaganda (22:22Z) specifically gloating over the loss of electricity suggests that power infrastructure remains the primary target type, critical for supporting rail/industrial logistics.
• Herasymivka Bridgehead: No new indicators regarding the PIR 74 (heavy armor crossing) trigger. The ongoing rear-area strikes are maintaining the necessary conditions (disruption, reserve fixation) for the anticipated ground maneuver NLT 0300Z.

CENTRAL AXIS (Cherkasy)

RF forces are successfully tying down UAF AD assets and achieving kinetic impacts in the Central Operational Command area.

• Cherkasy: The confirmation of sustained attacks (22:32Z) demonstrates the high volume of Shahed deployment, designed to force UAF AD decisions regarding asset distribution between the Central and Southern axes.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kharkiv/Sumy)

RF operations are focused on border infiltration and reconnaissance, possibly preparing for follow-on strikes.

• Sumy: Confirmed casualty (1) resulting from the UAV attack validates the continued threat from the north.
• Kharkiv: UAV movement toward Lozova (22:12Z) suggests potential interest in targeting logistics or infrastructure supporting UAF forces in the Kupyansk/Donetsk sector, placing the threat further south in Kharkiv Oblast than previous operations.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Aerial Saturation Campaign (CRITICAL THREAT, MULTI-AXIS): The RF is effectively executing a three-pronged aerial synchronization attack (Kryvyi Rih - Logistics/Power; Cherkasy - AD Fixation; Sumy - Border/AD Fixation). This strategy maintains high stress on UAF AD resources prior to the likely ground assault on the Southern flank. The targeting of electricity infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih is confirmed by contextual intelligence (RF propaganda).

2. Ground Maneuver (IMMINENT): The conditions for the MLCOA (Armored breakout at Herasymivka) remain in place. RF successfully degraded rear support in the past two hours. The predicted timeframe of NLT 0300Z for commitment of heavy armor remains valid, supported by the pre-positioned 260th GRAU artillery surge (SAR Score 30.78).

3. Response to UAF Deep Strike: RF sources have immediately confirmed the UAF deep strike on Rostov/Bataysk. The operational intent is clear: to immediately frame the UAF action as targeting civilians, attempting to negate the strategic effect of hitting a key logistics hub (Rostov port). We anticipate an increased retaliatory missile strike volume against UAF urban centers in the next 6-12 hours, leveraging the confirmed damage in Rostov as justification.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Deep Strike Confirmation (ACTIONABLE SUCCESS): UAF successfully executed a retaliatory deep strike operation targeting Rostov-on-Don and Bataysk.

• Strategic Impact: Confirmation by RF authorities of damage in the region validates UAF deep strike capability and reach.
• Critical BDA (PIR 98 Update): The unconfirmed claim of damage to a vessel in the Rostov port (22:34Z) is highly significant. Rostov-on-Don is a vital military and commercial port on the Sea of Azov, supporting RF logistics for the Southern Operational Area. Targeting and successfully striking a vessel there demonstrates operational effectiveness and imposes logistical risk on the RF.

2. Air Defense Posture: UAF AD remains under severe strain, with penetrations confirmed in three Oblasts (Kryvyi Rih, Cherkasy, Sumy). Resource prioritization is critical.

Information environment / disinformation

The immediate focus has shifted to controlling the narrative surrounding the deep strikes:

• RF Counter-IO: RF sources are heavily emphasizing the damage to residential areas in Rostov/Bataysk (22:04Z, 22:13Z) using highly emotive, dehumanizing language ("Children of Adolf"). This is a preemptive measure to justify future RF escalation and deflect from the successful attack on RF logistical military targets (e.g., the Rostov port).
• RF Trolling/Propaganda: The explicit celebration of power loss in Kryvyi Rih ("Electricity in Kryvyi Rih is not needed," 22:22Z) confirms the RF focus on systemic economic disruption.
• Internal Focus: Continued high-volume internal Russian police messages (phone fraud, cyber-parenting) suggest an attempt to normalize the domestic security situation despite the confirmed deep strikes.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The primary strategic risk remains the synchronized RF ground maneuver at Herasymivka, facilitated by persistent logistics disruption. The successful UAF deep strike creates strategic friction but is unlikely to delay the impending ground operation.

MLCOA (Synchronized Ground Attack with Logistics Disruption): (HIGH Confidence) RF air operations will continue to suppress UAF AD and degrade logistics (Cherkasy/Kryvyi Rih). RF Vostok Group will likely commence the commitment of heavy armor across the Gaychur River at the Herasymivka bridgehead NLT 0300Z, supported by the expected artillery surge.

MDCOA (Retaliatory Missile Barrage): (MEDIUM Confidence) Given the confirmed kinetic impact on Rostov-on-Don and potential damage to a naval/logistics vessel, the RF may launch a retaliatory missile/KAB strike campaign targeting high-value C2 or logistics infrastructure in the Ukrainian rear (e.g., Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia) within the next 6 hours (NLT 0400Z). This action would aim to demonstrate resolve and degrade UAF deep-strike launching capabilities.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements