Situation Report

Situation Update (22:06Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (21:37Z, Vilkul, HIGH) Kryvyi Rih AD Penetration: RF Shahed saturation attack successfully bypassed UAF Air Defense (AD) in Kryvyi Rih, resulting in confirmed kinetic impact, casualties, and ongoing firefighting operations. This negates the defensive success reported just prior to 21:36Z.
• (21:40Z, RBK-U, HIGH) Cherkasy Kinetic Impact: Confirmed explosions in Cherkasy Oblast, correlating with the large number of UAVs reported inbound (21:25Z), indicating successful RF strike against the Central Operational Axis.
• (21:47Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) RF Claims UAF C2 Strike: Pro-RF sources claim successful destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point near Izbytske, Kharkiv Oblast. This reflects active RF counter-ISR operations in the Northeast sector.
• (21:50Z, UAF AF, HIGH) Sustained Sumy UAV Infiltration: A new wave of RF UAVs was detected approaching Sumy Oblast from the north, confirming sustained kinetic pressure on the Northern Operational Command area.
• (21:59Z, Operatyvny ZSU, LOW) UNCONFIRMED Bataysk Blackout: UAF-affiliated sources report a partial blackout and residential damage in Bataysk, Rostov Oblast, Russia, potentially indicating a successful deep-strike retaliatory action by UAF assets.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih)

The RF has regained momentum in its aerial campaign against Southern logistics hubs, specifically targeting Kryvyi Rih, a critical node supporting the defense of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

• Kryvyi Rih: The confirmed impact, casualties, and necessary firefighting operations (21:39Z, 21:56Z) indicate that critical civilian or dual-use infrastructure (power/logistics) was successfully targeted. This increases psychological impact (0.204630 DS belief) and places immediate stress on emergency response resources. The ability of RF assets to re-penetrate this area immediately after the initial defensive success (pre-21:36Z) is highly concerning.
• Herasymivka Bridgehead: No new information regarding heavy armor movement across the Gaychur River (PIR 74 remains CRITICAL). The immediate disruption at Kryvyi Rih supports the MLCOA of using rear-area chaos to facilitate the imminent ground maneuver.
• Zaporizhzhia: Air alert has been cancelled (21:38Z), offering temporary relief but RF assets remain in the theater.

CENTRAL AXIS (Cherkasy)

The second primary aerial axis of the RF saturation campaign achieved kinetic success.

• Cherkasy: Confirmed explosions (21:40Z) validate the RF shift toward Central Ukraine. BDA is required to ascertain if critical infrastructure (rail/power) was damaged or if UAF AD successfully minimized the effect.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kharkiv/Sumy)

RF forces are maintaining pressure and conducting counter-ISR strikes while UAF secures Kupyansk.

• Kharkiv: The RF claim of striking a UAF UAV control point (21:47Z) suggests high confidence in their ability to detect and target UAF C2/ISR infrastructure in the near rear, a potentially effective counter-operation against UAF tactical drone advantage. UAF AF confirms active UAV presence in Kharkiv Oblast (21:48Z).
• Sumy: Sustained UAV infiltration (21:50Z) confirms RF intent to tie down UAF AD assets along the border and potentially strike deep logistics/infrastructure.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Aerial Saturation Campaign (CRITICAL THREAT, SUCCESSFUL PENETRATION): The RF has demonstrated tactical agility and persistence by immediately capitalizing on vulnerabilities after initial UAF AD success. The objective remains to overwhelm AD systems simultaneously across multiple axes to degrade C2 and logistics supporting the Herasymivka defense.

• Intent: To achieve sustained kinetic degradation of logistical hubs in Kryvyi Rih and Cherkasy NLT 0100Z to prevent UAF reserves (ammunition, manpower) from stabilizing the Southern front. The shift is tactical—they are prioritizing immediate infrastructure strikes over AD exhaustion.
• Capabilities: Continued high-volume deployment of Shahed 136/131 platforms, potentially synchronized with other strike platforms (KAB/Missile, though none confirmed in this period).
• Counter-ISR: The claimed strike on a UAF UAV control point (21:47Z) suggests RF reconnaissance is actively prioritizing targets related to UAF deep strike and drone fleet management.

2. Logistics and Sustainment (RF): No change to the critical assessment of imminent heavy artillery surge (260th GRAU Arsenal SAR Score 30.78). Success in Kryvyi Rih and Cherkasy creates favorable conditions for the commencement of the Herasymivka armored breakout NLT 0300Z.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense Status: AD systems were successfully engaged but were overwhelmed or bypassed in the Kryvyi Rih and Cherkasy sectors. AD capacity is highly stressed. The temporary stand-down in Zaporizhzhia (21:38Z) may be utilized for rapid AD replenishment/repositioning.
• Logistics/Sustainment (Tactical): An urgent appeal for replacement laptops for combat units (21:38Z) highlights a critical vulnerability in the sustainment of tactical C4ISR equipment at the unit level, likely due to attrition and kinetic damage. This degrades tactical situational awareness and communication effectiveness.
• Deep Strike Capability: The UNCONFIRMED report of a blackout/damage in Bataysk, Rostov Oblast (21:59Z), suggests UAF retaliatory deep strike operations are ongoing, aimed at disrupting RF logistics and potentially creating internal friction (Energy Supply Disruption in Rostov Oblast 0.041298 DS belief).

Information environment / disinformation

The IE has transitioned slightly from maximum external IO saturation (Venezuela) to addressing internal security/governance issues within Russia (Slutsky's proposal for migrant registry, 21:54Z).

The focus on the US-Venezuela narrative appears to have stabilized after reaching peak volume pre-21:36Z, but the narrative remains active. The primary information priority for the next few hours will be BDA control regarding the Kryvyi Rih and Cherkasy strikes, with RF sources likely amplifying successful strike results.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

RF forces have achieved tactical success in disrupting the immediate UAF rear area defense posture. This increases the overall risk profile for the Southern Operational Area.

MLCOA (Synchronized Ground Attack with Logistics Disruption): (HIGH Confidence) RF air operations will continue to focus on sustaining damage in the Kryvyi Rih and Cherkasy areas NLT 0100Z, forcing UAF to divert resources to BDA/recovery efforts. Given the success in securing the air domain briefly, RF Vostok Group remains highly likely to commit heavy armor across the Gaychur River at the Herasymivka bridgehead NLT 0300Z, supported by the anticipated artillery surge (SAR Score 30.78).

MDCOA (Immediate Breach Exploitation): (MEDIUM Confidence) If the combined kinetic success in Kryvyi Rih and Cherkasy degrades a key logistics or C2 node, creating a confirmed window of opportunity, the RF may accelerate the armored breakout attempt at Herasymivka by up to 2 hours, aiming for a rapid exploitation toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative boundary before UAF reserve reaction.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements