Situation Report

Situation Update (21:36Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (21:25Z, UAF AF, HIGH) Cherkasy Aerial Threat Escalates: UAF Air Force confirms a "large number" of UAVs approaching Cherkasy city from the north, confirming the execution of the fourth aerial axis aimed at central Ukraine.
• (21:25Z, Mykolaiv Vanyok, HIGH) Southern Logistical Hubs Defended: UAF Air Defense (AD) successfully negated all immediate UAV threats targeting Kryvyi Rih and Voznesensk, significantly stabilizing the airspace over critical Southern Operational Area logistics nodes.
• (21:33Z, RBK-U, HIGH) Explosions in Sumy: Confirmed kinetic activity (explosions heard) in Sumy Oblast, correlated with new UAV activity detected approaching the region from the north (21:26Z).
• (21:17Z, BUTUSOV PLUS, HIGH) Kupyansk Clearing Phase: UAF forces have entered the final phase of clearing the Kupyansk city limits, with approximately 200 trapped Russian Federation (RF) personnel reportedly isolated and hiding in multi-story buildings.
• (21:09Z-21:27Z, Multiple, HIGH) Venezuela IO Saturation: RF and affiliated media sources reached maximum volume on the Information Operation (IO) pushing the US-Venezuela conflict narrative, leveraging quotes from Donald Trump regarding the reclamation of oil rights to frame US geopolitical overextension.
• (21:06Z, RBK-U, MEDIUM) Zelensky-Tusk Meeting Anticipated: A high-level diplomatic meeting between President Zelensky and Polish PM Tusk is potentially scheduled for Friday, signaling continued strong bilateral alignment.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv)

UAF forces successfully countered the immediate kinetic threat against logistics infrastructure supporting the Herasymivka defense.

• Kryvyi Rih/Voznesensk: The successful negation of UAVs targeting these hubs (21:18Z, 21:25Z) indicates effective UAF AD coordination and resource prioritization. This mitigates the immediate risk of C2/power degradation in the direct operational rear.
• Herasymivka Breach: No new reports confirming heavy armor crossing the Gaychur River. The 1km bridgehead remains fixed by UAF artillery and reconnaissance fires.

CENTRAL AXIS (Cherkasy, Sumy)

The focus of the RF aerial saturation campaign has shifted rapidly toward Central and Northeast sectors following the failure to penetrate the Southern AD complex.

• Cherkasy: The confirmed "large number" of UAVs inbound (21:25Z) indicates RF intent to inflict damage on critical infrastructure (power/rail) in Cherkasy Oblast, further stressing UAF AD dispersal efforts.
• Sumy: New UAV infiltration and subsequent explosions (21:33Z) confirm the RF is maintaining kinetic pressure across the entire length of the active front/border area.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kupyansk)

The tactical situation in Kupyansk is transitioning from stabilization to elimination.

• Kupyansk Pocket: The confirmation of approximately 200 encircled RF personnel (21:17Z) suggests that UAF efforts to clear the city center are nearing completion, significantly reducing the RF tactical footprint in the Kharkiv direction.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Aerial Saturation Campaign (CRITICAL THREAT, SHIFTING FOCUS): The RF is executing the four-axis saturation plan, but UAF success in the south forces a tactical adjustment.

• Immediate Intent: RF will maximize UAV and potential missile strikes over the next 3-6 hours against Cherkasy and Sumy Oblasts to find a vulnerability, deplete UAF AD ammunition reserves, and disrupt GLOCs leading south toward the main effort.
• Logistics Posture: The earlier successful interdiction of logistics (Artsyz power failure, KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia) has not yet been reinforced by a tactical aerial breakthrough, suggesting the RF ground maneuver (PIR 74) remains constrained by the current bridgehead status.

2. Information Warfare Synchronization (HIGH THREAT, PEAK INTENSITY): The RF IO apparatus has achieved maximum synchronization, using the perceived US-Venezuela tension to dominate the global narrative.

• Theme: US Imperial Overstretch/Distraction. The intense promotion of former President Trump's statements regarding oil rights (21:12Z, 21:13Z, 21:19Z, 21:23Z) is designed to signal to domestic and international audiences that the US focus is shifting away from Ukraine precisely when the RF is attempting a critical breakthrough.
• Allied Messaging: Belarusian President Lukashenko's description of Putin as a "wolfhound" (21:32Z) is aimed at reinforcing the image of a unified, decisive Eastern strategic bloc countering a distracted West.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense Effectiveness: Successful defense of Kryvyi Rih and Voznesensk (HIGH Confidence). This success is critical for preserving the logistic flow necessary to sustain operations at Herasymivka.
• Ground Operations (Kupyansk): The active elimination of the remaining RF pocket in Kupyansk (21:17Z) confirms tactical control and frees up UAF units for potential redeployment to other priority sectors, pending final clearance.
• Diplomatic Front: The anticipated meeting between Zelensky and Tusk (21:06Z) serves as a potent diplomatic counter-narrative to RF efforts promoting Western fragmentation and disunity.

Information environment / disinformation

The immediate IE is focused on maximizing distraction globally to minimize attention on RF escalation in Ukraine. The MLCOA in the cognitive domain is to establish the Venezuela narrative as the dominant global military crisis.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The RF must overcome UAF AD resistance to sustain its operational pace. Failure to degrade logistics/C2 in the Central or Southern sectors will complicate the impending ground maneuver.

MLCOA (Ground Attack Under Air Cover Shift): (HIGH Confidence) RF air assets will continue maximum saturation efforts directed primarily at the Cherkasy-Sumy axes NLT 0100Z. This kinetic pressure is intended to draw UAF AD resources away from the Southern Operational Area. The ground maneuver phase at Herasymivka—artillery preparation followed by heavy armor (PIR 74)—remains likely to commence NLT 0300Z, regardless of the success of the new aerial targeting shift, as political and logistical timelines mandate the attempt.

MDCOA (Unmitigated Breakout): (MEDIUM Confidence) If the shifted aerial campaign successfully strikes a critical AD or C2 node in the Cherkasy/Kyiv vicinity, forcing UAF reserves north, RF Vostok Group will exploit the resulting vulnerability at Herasymivka by committing heavy armor earlier than 0300Z, aiming for a rapid breakout toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative boundary.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements