Situation Report

Situation Update (21:06Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This report identifies a significant escalation in the Russian Federation’s (RF) aerial fixation efforts, which have now expanded to four concurrent axes across Ukraine. This saturation campaign is synchronized with sustained kinetic pressure via Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) on the Southern Operational Area (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk) and is occurring amidst a successful Ukrainian deep strike against RF defense industry targets.

Key updates since last sitrep

• (21:04Z, UAF AF, HIGH) RF Launches Fourth Aerial Axis: Confirmed launch of UAVs from Kyiv/Poltava Oblasts targeting Cherkasy Oblast, establishing a fourth concurrent deep strike axis aimed at maximizing saturation and dispersal of UAF Air Defense (AD) resources across Central Ukraine.
• (20:41Z, V∆DIM, MEDIUM) UAF Deep Strike Confirmed on RF DIB: A significant fire is reported at the Ordzhonikidze Plant in Saratov, a major industrial enterprise specializing in equipment for the RF aviation and defense industries. This confirms successful UAF kinetic action against RF Defense Industrial Base (DIB).
• (20:40Z, RBK-U, HIGH) US Defense Aid Secured: The US Senate approved the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), including $800 million in aid for Ukraine, confirming sustained high-level US military and financial support.
• (20:59Z, Mykolaiv Vanyok, HIGH) Immediate Southern UAV Threat Quantified: Confirmed presence of seven (7) UAVs targeting key nodes on the Southern Flank—three approaching Kryvyi Rih and four approaching Voznesensk (Mykolaiv Oblast)—indicating immediate kinetic intent against logistics and infrastructure supporting the Herasymivka defense.
• (21:05Z, UAF AF, HIGH) Sustained KAB Strikes on Southern Rear: Confirmed KAB launches targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast, maintaining continuous high-explosive pressure on UAF coordination centers and logistical infrastructure in the operational rear.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv)

RF focus remains on securing air dominance and degrading UAF AD/Logistics ahead of the anticipated armored push at Herasymivka (currently a 1km bridgehead west of the Gaychur River).

• Aerial Saturation: The concentration of UAVs targeting Kryvyi Rih and Voznesensk (20:59Z) indicates an immediate RF attempt to interdict the main supply lines that would flow north from Odesa or west from Central Ukraine to the Herasymivka breach.
• KAB Pressure: Continued KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (21:05Z) are designed to fix UAF ground maneuver reserves and degrade Command and Control (C2) effectiveness across the operational rear.

CENTRAL AXIS (Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy)

The initiation of the fourth aerial axis (21:04Z) targeting Cherkasy is a critical development.

• Fixation Strategy: By forcing UAF AD assets to engage threats originating from multiple directions (Sumy/Chernihiv, Kyiv, Poltava), the RF seeks to reduce the volume of AD coverage available to protect frontline assets at the critical Herasymivka breach point.

RUSSIAN DEEP REAR

• Saratov DIB Strike: The fire at the Ordzhonikidze Plant (20:41Z), specializing in aviation/defense equipment, demonstrates the sustained reach and effectiveness of UAF deep strike capabilities. This represents a confirmed degradation of the RF capacity to sustain its air campaign via domestic component production.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Aerial Overload Campaign (CRITICAL THREAT): RF has rapidly escalated its aerial strategy from a three-axis to a four-axis saturation campaign in the last hour. This is the MLCOA for the next 6-12 hours, aimed at achieving localized air supremacy over the Southern Front.

• Intent: Neutralize key AD batteries and logistics nodes in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Oblasts NLT 0300Z to pave the way for heavy armor insertion at Herasymivka.
• Tactical Signatures: UAVs are currently probing toward highly kinetic targets (Kryvyi Rih, Voznesensk, Cherkasy).

2. Information Environment Synchronization (HIGH THREAT): The RF is actively utilizing the global Information Environment (IE) to maximize distraction and signal Western disunity concurrently with kinetic escalation.

• Venezuela Conflict Narrative: RF media aggressively amplified unsubstantiated claims of an imminent US war with Venezuela (20:37Z, 20:59Z), leveraging reports of US carrier aviation activity (21:02Z). The objective is to dilute international focus on Ukraine and signal US strategic overstretch.
• EU Disunity Narrative: TASS reported the cancellation of the EU Commission President’s pre-summit press conference (20:56Z), aligning with prior RF IO efforts to frame the EU summit as facing insurmountable internal friction over financial aid.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Deep Strike Success: The confirmed strike on the Saratov DIB provides operational depth against RF sustainment, potentially delaying RF capability regeneration for combat aviation. Requires further BDA.
• Financial Resilience: The US NDAA approval mitigates immediate concerns regarding long-term military aid (20:40Z). Furthermore, statements countering the financial fracture narrative (21:02Z, Radio Svoboda) help stabilize domestic morale regarding international support.

Information environment / disinformation

The immediate IE is dominated by coordinated geopolitical distraction efforts:

• RF Main Effort (Distraction): The highly amplified US-Venezuela conflict narrative serves as the main information warfare effort, targeting international media consumers and Western decision-makers (DS Belief: Troop Movement/Military Action near Venezuela: 0.1573, 0.1338).
• RF Secondary Effort (Fragmentation): Exploitation of EU diplomatic friction, utilizing the cancellation of the EU press conference to signal internal weakness regarding Ukraine support (20:56Z).
• UAF Counter-Narrative: UAF-aligned media sources are actively countering the financial fragmentation narrative, emphasizing that financing streams remain viable even if the high-profile EU reparations loan mechanism stalls (21:02Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate outlook remains governed by the necessity to repel the massed aerial assault and prevent the consolidation of the Herasymivka breach.

MLCOA (AD Suppression and Breaching Attempt): (HIGH Confidence) RF air and drone assets will continue maximum saturation of the four active axes until approximately 0200Z. The kinetic emphasis will be on interdicting power infrastructure and logistics supporting Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv. The ground maneuver phase, involving an artillery surge followed by heavy armor (PIR 74), remains likely to commence NLT 0300Z at Herasymivka.

MDCOA (Combined Ground/IO Exploitation): (MEDIUM Confidence) If UAF AD is significantly degraded in the Southern Operational Area by 0100Z, RF ground forces may attempt to advance the 1km bridgehead aggressively toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative boundary earlier than anticipated. This kinetic push would be immediately exploited by the RF global IO apparatus, framing the US-Venezuela situation as evidence of shifting US focus away from the collapsing Ukrainian defense.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements