Situation Report

Situation Update (20:36Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This report integrates multi-domain intelligence, highlighting the expansion of RF aerial fixation efforts to a third axis concurrent with critical geopolitical signaling regarding financial aid mechanisms. The focus remains on immediate preparation for the anticipated armored push at Herasymivka.

Key updates since last sitrep

• (20:27Z, UAF AF, HIGH) New Southern UAV Axis Detected: Confirmed launch of Iranian-type UAVs from Kherson Oblast with a trajectory toward Mykolaiv Oblast, opening a third concurrent deep strike axis aimed at fixing UAF air defense assets on the maritime flank.
• (20:35Z, STERNENKO/20:20Z, TASS, HIGH) Sustained UAF Deep Strikes Confirmed: UAF deep drone activity is confirmed across eight distinct RF regions (Rostov, Voronezh, Bryansk, etc.). RF claims destruction of 30 UAVs in three hours, confirming high density and wide coverage of UAF attack efforts on RF operational depth.
• (20:32Z, TASS, MEDIUM) US Opposition to Asset Confiscation: Reporting indicates the US opposes the EU's full confiscation of frozen RF assets, potentially complicating the 'reparation credit' long-term financial mechanism previously under discussion (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.3806).
• (20:09Z, RBK-U, MEDIUM) Turkey Seeking S-400 Reversal: Reports suggest Ankara is seeking to return the Russian S-400 air defense systems in exchange for a refund, signaling potential friction or a shift in Turkey's strategic military procurement posture away from the Russian Federation.
• (20:06Z, UAF AF, HIGH) RF KAB Launches on Donetsk: Confirmed launch activity of Guided Aerial Bombs targeting Donetsk region, sustaining high-intensity kinetic pressure on the Eastern Operational Area, particularly against fortified positions like Chasiv Yar.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv)

The main concern is the synchronization of deep strikes designed to interdict UAF reserves before the Herasymivka armored push.

• Dnipropetrovsk/Herasymivka: No confirmed change to the geometry of the 1km bridgehead. RF military bloggers claimed a successful strike against UAF military equipment in the Zaporizhzhia region (20:31Z, UNCONFIRMED, LOW confidence), suggesting RF forces are actively engaging UAF counter-battery and forward reserves.
• Mykolaiv Flank (NEW AXIS): The launch of UAVs from Kherson toward Mykolaiv (20:27Z) aims to force UAF Air Defense resources toward the south, thereby degrading coverage over the critical Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia operational rear where the ground breach is occurring.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk, Chasiv Yar)

RF forces continue the systematic destruction of key urban terrain to facilitate future ground maneuver and exhaust UAF defensive reserves.

• Chasiv Yar: Visual evidence confirms catastrophic levels of destruction in the city center (20:22Z). This confirms that RF reliance on massed fire (artillery and KABs, 20:06Z) remains the primary method for tactical advancement in this attritional sector.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kupyansk)

RF focus in the information domain remains high (20:19Z), reflecting continued attempts to claim operational momentum despite UAF stabilization actions. No new kinetic reporting for this sector.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Three-Axis Aerial Saturation (CRITICAL Threat): RF has successfully established three distinct, simultaneous deep strike axes aimed at kinetic fixation: Northeast (Poltava/Chernihiv), Central (East Dnipropetrovsk), and now Southern Flank (Mykolaiv). This multi-axis synchronization is designed to saturate UAF Air Defense C2 and pave the way for a decisive KAB/artillery barrage NLT 0300Z supporting the Herasymivka breakout.

2. Tactical Adaptations / UAV Counter-Attack: The high volume of UAF deep drone activity forcing RF air defense alerts across eight RF regions confirms that UAF deep strike capability remains a significant operational concern for the RF rear. This ongoing UAF counter-logistics pressure serves to complicate RF troop rotation, supply delivery, and overall strategic sustainment.

3. Geopolitical Interdiction of Financial Aid (HIGH Confidence): The new intelligence suggesting US opposition to the full confiscation of RF assets introduces significant diplomatic friction into the EU's proposed long-term financing mechanism for Ukraine. This aligns perfectly with the RF's high-priority information operation to fragment international economic cohesion.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Force Generation (Sustainment): Kazakhstan's reported plan to establish NATO-standard artillery and mortar shell production plants (20:21Z) is a long-term positive development for UAF ammunition sustainment and NATO standardization efforts.
• Domestic IO Vulnerability: The highly publicized incident concerning a severely wounded serviceman being denied a bank card (20:20Z) creates immediate, high-value material for RF internal and external propaganda efforts aimed at degrading UAF public trust and soldier morale.

Information environment / disinformation

• Strategic Distraction (Diplomatic): The repeated corroboration of imminent US-RF talks in Miami serves as a persistent, high-level diplomatic distraction (20:15Z, 20:17Z, 20:26Z). RF utilizes this narrative to introduce uncertainty into UAF planning cycles and signal to the international community that negotiation pathways remain open, even while kinetic escalation proceeds on the ground.
• Narrative Manipulation (TASS): The use of completely fabricated sports narratives (20:09Z) is a common tactic by RF state media to test audience receptiveness to falsified content and maintain continuous, controlled domestic information flow.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate threat is the culmination of RF aerial synchronization efforts, designed to blind UAF ISR and interdict logistics ahead of the heavy ground assault at Herasymivka. The 0300Z window remains the most likely time for the artillery surge to commence.

MLCOA (Air Defense Saturation and Breach Preparation): (HIGH Confidence) RF air assets will maintain maximum pressure across all three active UAV axes (NE, Central, Mykolaiv) NLT 0000Z. The key objective is to neutralize or fix UAF SAM coverage over Eastern Dnipropetrovsk to allow RF deep-strike aircraft (e.g., Su-34s delivering KABs) to operate with impunity, targeting UAF fire support and C2 nodes defending the breach.

MDCOA (Exploitation of Financial Friction): (MEDIUM Confidence) In parallel with the ground push, RF diplomatic and IO assets will rapidly exploit the reported US-EU friction over asset confiscation. The intent is to generate public narrative suggesting that Western support is fracturing or unreliable, thereby undermining UAF resolve during the critical battlefield window.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements