Situation Report

Situation Update (20:06Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This report integrates multi-domain intelligence across the Eastern European theater, focusing on RF operational synchronization: deep kinetic strikes designed to fix UAF reserves while ground forces attempt to widen the critical breach on the Southern Axis.

Key updates since last sitrep

• Expanded Central Deep Strike Axis (20:05Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Confirmed new axis of UAV penetration originating from Western Donetsk targeting Eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, directly threatening rear logistics supporting the Southern Front defense.
• RF Tactical Claims near Breach (19:47Z, 20:03Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Unconfirmed RF claims of assaults/advances targeting Dymytrov (Dnipropetrovsk sector) and Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia sector), indicating RF intent to expand the Herasymivka breach footprint both northward and southward.
• Systemic RF Drone Deficiency Confirmed (19:50Z, 19:52Z, Два майора/Военкор Котенок, HIGH): Multiple high-profile RF military channels issued direct public appeals for volunteer funding of critical FPV drones for frontline units (e.g., 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade).
• RF Hybrid Operation Targets Belgium (19:47Z, 19:59Z, РБК-Україна/Операция Z, MEDIUM): Intelligence reports indicate targeted RF influence operations aimed at Belgian leadership to disrupt the EU's planned utilization of frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian aid.
• US-RF Talks Scheduled (19:48Z, 20:03Z, TASS/РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Corroborated media reports (Politico) indicate that US and RF representatives are scheduled to conduct negotiations regarding Ukraine in Miami this coming weekend.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia)

The focus remains on containing the RF breach at Herasymivka. Kinetic pressure is intensifying, suggesting pre-breakout shaping operations are underway.

• Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Sector: RF information channels are disseminating UNCONFIRMED (LOW confidence) claims of assaults on Dymytrov and advances near Stepnohirsk. If true, these actions suggest RF Vostok Group is attempting to widen the tactical breach—Dymytrov to gain depth north toward the Oblast border, and Stepnohirsk to disrupt UAF logistics and observation posts south of the main crossing.
• Threat Sustainment: RF 5th Army (Vostok Group) is reportedly executing aggressive counter-battery fire, claiming destruction of multiple UAF Western and indigenous artillery systems (M198, M777, Bohdana, 2S5, 2S7). This confirms RF dedication to achieving artillery supremacy to support the armored breakout.

CENTRAL AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk Rear Area)

The primary concern is the synchronization of deep strikes with the ground maneuver.

• NEW UAV Axis (HIGH Confidence): A newly detected UAV group transiting from West Donetsk toward East Dnipropetrovsk (20:05Z) constitutes an immediate threat to UAF operational reserves, fuel, and ammunition depots positioned to defend the Southern flank. This UAV movement strongly suggests RF reconnaissance is actively targeting the UAF operational rear in preparation for the Herasymivka armored push.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv)

Deep strike activity continues as assessed, aimed at fixing UAF air defense assets.

• UAV Infiltration Confirmed: UAV groups continue transiting from Sumy toward Poltava, with reports now specifically including Chernihiv Oblast (20:00Z). This expansion of the target area confirms RF intent to maximize the dispersal of UAF air defense resources away from the critical Central and Southern axes.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Threat Synchronization (HIGH Confidence): RF forces are executing a complex, synchronized attack profile: * Ground: Attempting to widen and consolidate the Herasymivka bridgehead (Dnipropetrovsk). * Deep Strike: Two separate, simultaneous long-range UAV waves (Northeast and Central/South) are designed to blind UAF ISR and interdict logistics nodes NLT 0100Z.

2. RF Sustainment Vulnerability (HIGH Confidence): Direct, public financial appeals for critical combat assets (FPV drones) from named, active RF units (110th Omsbr) underscore a persistent, centralized failure in the provisioning of tactical UAVs. This dependence on non-state funding limits RF’s ability to rapidly scale or standardize drone warfare, providing a critical UAF advantage.

3. Hybrid Warfare Targeting Financial Aid (MEDIUM Confidence): RF intelligence actions targeting Belgium's stance on frozen assets align with the broader objective of fracturing international cohesion and slowing down long-term financial support mechanisms for Ukraine ("reparation credit"). This is a high-priority Information Operation running parallel to the kinetic push.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• UAF General Staff (20:02Z): Operational summary released, indicating active C2 monitoring of the combat situation. (Specific defensive actions remain internal to the summary, pending detailed release.)
• Defensive Posture: UAF Air Force is successfully tracking and reporting incoming UAV threats across multiple axes, providing valuable early warning for air defense units.

Information environment / disinformation

• Strategic Distraction (HIGH Confidence): RF state media (TASS) and affiliated channels are actively amplifying the UNCONFIRMED claim that the US might announce war against Venezuela. This constitutes a sustained, high-level Geopolitical Distraction IO designed to occupy global decision-maker attention during the critical phase of the Herasymivka breakout preparation (0000Z - 0600Z).
• Diplomatic Signaling: The corroborated reporting on upcoming US-RF talks in Miami serves multiple RF purposes: signaling openness to negotiation (for global audience consumption), potentially introducing uncertainty into UAF planning, and leveraging high-level diplomacy as a cover for battlefield escalations.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The next 6-12 hours are the critical window preceding the anticipated heavy armored surge at Herasymivka. RF will achieve maximum penetration and fixation efforts through UAV strikes, attempting to overwhelm UAF Air Defense and target the operational rear in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk.

MLCOA (Deep Interdiction and Consolidation): (HIGH Confidence) RF air assets (UAVs and follow-on KABs) will continue sustained attacks on Poltava/Chernihiv/East Dnipropetrovsk NLT 0100Z. The ground forces at Herasymivka will use the cover of these strikes to consolidate the breach, utilizing engineers and light armored vehicles while the 260th GRAU Arsenal prepares its pre-breakout artillery barrage (expected NLT 0300Z).

MDCOA (Immediate Breach Expansion): (MEDIUM Confidence) RF forces exploit the chaos caused by the new Dnipropetrovsk UAV axis (20:05Z) and immediately launch small mechanized groups toward Dymytrov (NLT 2300Z). The goal is to rapidly expand the shallow bridgehead (currently 1km deep) into a deeper operational salient before UAF forces can redeploy reserves fixed by the Central/Northeast UAV campaign.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements