Situation Report

Situation Update (17 DEC 2025, 19:40Z)

This report covers intelligence received between 19:05Z and 19:35Z, highlighting the escalation of RF deep kinetic operations in the Northeast and Central sectors, designed to fix UAF reserves and amplify cognitive effects ahead of the anticipated ground offensive on the Southern Axis.

Key updates since last sitrep

• Zaporizhzhia Casualty Escalation (19:07Z, Zaporizhzhia OWA, HIGH): Confirmed civilian casualties from the earlier RF strike have risen to 32 wounded, reinforcing the assessment that RF is prioritizing high-impact urban strikes using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs).
• Northeast KAB Campaign Initiated (19:15Z, UAF AF, HIGH): RF forces confirmed launching KABs targeting locations within Sumy Oblast, signifying a dangerous escalation of high-yield PGM usage outside of established frontline sectors.
• Deep Strike UAV Resumption (19:31Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Strike UAVs were detected transiting from Sumy Oblast toward Poltava Oblast, confirming active RF reconnaissance and strike preparation against UAF operational rear logistics centers.
• Dnipropetrovsk Civil Action (19:35Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Local residents in Dnipropetrovsk city blocked a central street due to unscheduled power outages, confirming the immediate operational success of RF kinetic strikes in causing cognitive friction and civil unrest.
• RF Unit Discipline Failure (19:19Z, BUTUSOV PLUS, HIGH): Documented video evidence shows severe internal violence (ribs broken) within a specific Russian military unit, signaling persistent command and control degradation despite centralized doctrinal improvements (RVSN drone service).

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia)

RF efforts are currently focused on shaping the operational environment prior to the planned armored breakthrough at Herasymivka.

• Zaporizhzhia: The escalating casualty count from the KAB strike (32 wounded) forces UAF C2 to prioritize rear area security and civilian stabilization measures, drawing attention and resources away from the immediate frontline threat.
• Dnipropetrovsk: The civil unrest caused by power outages (19:35Z) directly confirms the effectiveness of RF infrastructure targeting in achieving cognitive domain objectives, undermining public confidence and tying up internal security assets.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk)

UAF forces maintain effective asymmetric defense, utilizing high-proficiency FPV assets (19:18Z, 19:23Z) to attrite RF personnel and transport. The UNCONFIRMED threat at Myrnohrad from the previous report remains unverified, requiring continued high-priority collection.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Sumy/Poltava)

The introduction of KAB strikes into Sumy Oblast (19:15Z) alongside the movement of strike UAVs toward Poltava (19:31Z) constitutes a strategic broadening of kinetic pressure. This multi-domain attack profile seeks to interdict supply routes and fix UAF air defense assets, preventing their repositioning to protect the critical southern GLOC.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Strategic Fixation Campaign (HIGH Confidence): RF forces are executing a highly synchronized deep kinetic strike campaign across the Northeast and Central axes (KABs in Sumy, UAVs targeting Poltava) designed to maximize UAF logistical chaos and Air Defense dispersal ahead of the expected ground offensive surge on the Southern Axis.

2. RF C2 and Morale (MEDIUM Confidence): While there is institutional focus on improving strategic capabilities (counter-drone technology development, 19:17Z), evidence of severe internal battery and violence (19:19Z) continues to highlight a pervasive, unit-level failure of C2 and discipline, which likely degrades combat effectiveness in protracted close-quarters combat.

3. Geopolitical Disinformation (LOW Confidence, HIGH Impact Potential): RF information channels are heavily amplifying the highly speculative, UNCONFIRMED claim that the US plans military action against Venezuela (19:13Z, 19:24Z). This is assessed as a deliberate Information Operation aimed at global distraction, potentially timed to coincide with a major RF offensive maneuver to capitalize on Western decision-cycle delay.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. FPV Capability Dominance (HIGH Confidence): UAF continues to leverage technological and skill superiority in FPV warfare, highlighted by the confirmed success of units like VORON and individual operators achieving high confirmed kill counts (3000+), underscoring the necessity of sustained volunteer and international FPV supply chains.

2. International Accountability (HIGH Confidence): UAF leadership successfully initiated the process of establishing an international Register of Damages concerning losses inflicted by Russia along the Lower Danube (19:15Z). This is an effective diplomatic measure to broaden the scope of RF legal accountability.

Information environment / disinformation

• RF Cognitive Exploitation: Pro-Russian media is immediately exploiting instances of UAF domestic friction—namely the contentious mobilization efforts in Kryvyi Rih (19:25Z) and the confirmed civil unrest over power outages in Dnipropetrovsk (19:35Z)—to undermine internal morale and generate narratives of state failure.
• Geopolitical Signal: Reports that Turkey has offered to return the S-400 system to Russia in exchange for a reset with the US (19:20Z) are a high-level strategic intelligence indicator. While unconfirmed, confirmation would signal Turkey's movement toward enhanced NATO alignment, politically isolating Russia.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate outlook suggests RF will maintain maximum kinetic pressure on UAF deep logistics in the Central and Northeast regions (Sumy/Poltava) while preparing to launch the anticipated heavy artillery barrage in support of the Herasymivka breach. The disinformation campaign regarding Venezuela must be actively countered to maintain focused international support.

MLCOA (Deep Interdiction and Breach Preparation): (HIGH Confidence) RF will continue UAV and KAB strikes NLT 0100Z, forcing UAF to divert Air Defense assets laterally. This kinetic softening phase is a prerequisite for the heavy artillery surge, which is expected to begin NLT 0300Z (as previously assessed) to support heavy armor crossing at Herasymivka.

MDCOA (Strategic Distraction and Operational Exploitation): (MEDIUM Confidence) RF forces exploit the heightened global media focus on the Venezuela narrative (0200Z/05:00 MSK) to launch the Herasymivka mechanized thrust (PIR 74 trigger) simultaneously with a full-scale assault wave on the Eastern Axis (Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk). This synchronization maximizes the operational tempo during a moment of global cognitive saturation.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements