Situation Report

Situation Update (19:05Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This report provides analysis of intelligence received between 18:35Z and 19:05Z, emphasizing shifts in RF command structure and renewed aerial kinetic pressure on UAF deep rear logistics, alongside a highly significant, but unconfirmed, breakthrough claim on the Eastern Axis.

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF C2 Structure Adaption (18:55:38, Kotsnews, HIGH): The Russian Federation Rocket Forces (RVSN) have formally established a dedicated Unmanned Systems Service, signaling rapid institutional integration of drone warfare into strategic command structures.
• Eastern Axis Breakthrough Claim (18:42:04, Alex Parker, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim Myrnohrad has been "liberated." This claim near the critical Pokrovsk logistical hub is UNCONFIRMED by UAF ISR and, if true, represents a highly dangerous tactical breakthrough.
• Renewed Odesa Logistics Pressure (18:47:06, UAF AF, HIGH): A new UAV wave was detected targeting Serhiivka (Odesa Oblast), maintaining kinetic pressure on the southern rail corridor already disrupted by the Artsyz power outage.
• Friendly Aid Confirmed (18:55:56, STERNENKO, HIGH): The US Congress approved a large-scale defense budget, ensuring long-term resource support for UAF operations.
• Northern Reconnaissance (19:03:12, UAF AF, MEDIUM): A UAV was detected in Northern Sumy Oblast moving toward Terny, indicating RF efforts to maintain multi-axis probing and fixation operations.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa)

RF kinetic operations are focused on leveraging the Herasymivka breach while preventing UAF reserve commitment through continuous deep strikes.

• Odesa/Southern GLOC: The immediate targeting of Serhiivka reinforces the assessment that RF's primary immediate operational objective is the strangulation of the Southern Ground Line of Communication (GLOC). Serhiivka provides an alternative route/logistics choke point near the coast, requiring rapid Air Defense commitment.
• Herasymivka Breach: No immediate confirmation of heavy armor movement, suggesting RF Vostok Group is adhering to the predicted consolidation timeline, awaiting the artillery surge.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk - Pokrovsk Sector)

• Myrnohrad Threat: The uncorroborated claim of Myrnohrad's liberation (18:42Z) is the most significant unverified threat indicator in this reporting window. If the claim holds, RF forces have successfully bypassed or destroyed key UAF defensive lines, immediately threatening the logistical C2 hub at Pokrovsk. This necessitates immediate verification (PIR 1).
• Vovchanski Khutory: Confirmed fighting in this area (18:43Z) indicates RF is sustaining offensive pressure in the northern Donetsk/Kharkiv boundary to fix UAF forces.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kharkiv/Sumy)

• Sumy Probing: UAV activity directed toward Terny (19:03Z) is assessed as reconnaissance, potentially identifying targets for deep strikes or preparation for ground activity designed to fix UAF units near the Russian border.
• Environmental Factors: Anticipated worsening weather in Kharkiv (18:47Z) may temporarily reduce RF ISR effectiveness but will also degrade UAF operational flexibility (UAV/CAS).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. RF Institutional Drone Integration (HIGH Confidence): The establishment of a dedicated Unmanned Systems Service within the RVSN is a critical intelligence finding. This signals a doctrinal shift, centralizing drone application potentially across strategic, operational, and tactical domains, increasing the efficiency and scale of future RF drone attacks.

2. Synchronized Fixation Strategy (HIGH Confidence): The current pattern of UAV deployment—targeting Southern logistics (Serhiivka), probing Northern flanks (Terny), and conducting ongoing attacks on the Eastern front—is precisely synchronized to dilute UAF Air Defense capabilities and prevent the necessary repositioning of strategic reserves toward the Herasymivka breach.

3. Eastern Axis Tactical Threat (MEDIUM Confidence, pending verification): Given the established intensity of fighting near Pokrovsk, the Myrnohrad claim (18:42Z) elevates the threat level on the Eastern Axis. If UAF lines have collapsed, RF is achieving success in a secondary operational objective designed to fix UAF reserves and prevent their commitment south.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Morale and C2 Risk: The documented internal bureaucratic failures affecting wounded personnel (18:57Z) represent a cognitive vulnerability that RF IO will exploit, potentially eroding public support and troop morale if not immediately addressed by UAF command.
• Diplomatic Engagement: President Zelenskyy's statement (18:41Z) effectively communicates the gravity of the RF escalation to international partners, aligning UAF strategic communications with the necessity of continued, urgent military aid.

Information environment / disinformation

• Counter-Fraud Narrative (RF Domestic): RF reporting on apprehending fraudsters targeting SVO participants (18:33Z) is a state-managed narrative intended to reassure the domestic audience that the regime supports its combatants and maintains internal order.
• Financial IO: RF is actively seeking to destabilize the Western consensus on frozen assets by proposing a deal with the US (18:47Z). This is a high-level diplomatic maneuver aimed at eroding EU unity following the recent delay in asset seizure discussions.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate outlook is dominated by the imminent heavy artillery surge (PIR 74) to support the Herasymivka breach exploitation. The risk level on the Eastern Axis has been temporarily raised due to the Myrnohrad claim. UAF Command must prepare for potential synchronized tactical breakthroughs on both axes.

MLCOA (Artillery Surge and Breach Consolidation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will initiate or intensify the heavy artillery surge NLT 0300Z, 18 DEC. This is the prerequisite for MBT/IFV insertion across the Gaychur River. The increased C2 efficiency suggested by the RVSN drone service may lead to higher precision in this barrage.

MDCOA (Myrnohrad Collapse & Southern Breakout Synchronization): (MEDIUM Confidence) If the Myrnohrad claim is confirmed, RF forces will execute simultaneous, deep mechanized thrusts: 1) Exploiting the Myrnohrad breach toward Pokrovsk, and 2) Utilizing the Herasymivka bridgehead to push northwest toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. This synchronization maximizes operational chaos and overwhelms UAF decision cycles.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements