Situation Report

Situation Update (18:35Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This report provides analysis of new intelligence received between 18:05Z and 18:35Z, focusing on the immediate tactical threats along the Southern and Eastern Axes, and key shifts in the information environment.

Key updates since last sitrep

• UAV Threat Diversification: RF UAV activity expanded, with separate waves confirmed targeting Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and Kharkiv City (Northeast Axis) (18:11Z, 18:12Z, UAF AF, HIGH). This validates the assessment of continuous, simultaneous kinetic fixation across the theater.
• RF Dnipropetrovsk Advance Claim: Pro-Russian sources claim the Center Grouping of Forces achieved advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (18:23Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM). This supports the narrative of exploitation following the Herasymivka breach, but specific gains remain UNCONFIRMED by UAF ISR.
• UAF Counter-Attritional Success: UAF 429th separate drone regiment "Achilles" confirmed the successful kinetic elimination of an RF assault group totaling 39 personnel near Kupyansk (18:31Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH). This corroborates the stabilization of the Kupyansk sector and highlights the effectiveness of UAF specialized UAV units.
• Zaporizhzhia Front Pressure: RF sources claimed tactical successes near Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia Direction) (18:29Z, Рыбарь, MEDIUM). This indicates RF is utilizing localized thrusts to fix UAF defenses south of the critical Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.
• EU Assets Confiscation Delayed: The discussion regarding the confiscation of frozen Russian assets was removed from the EU summit agenda, according to Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán (18:15Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH). This provides Moscow with temporary relief from financial pressure.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia)

RF kinetic operations are fully aligned with the operational objective of exploiting the Herasymivka breach and preventing UAF reserve commitment.

• Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih: The immediate detection of a UAV strike package directed at Kryvyi Rih (18:11Z) confirms RF intent to degrade logistics/power infrastructure and fix UAF Air Defense systems critical to the defense of the Dnipropetrovsk administrative line.
• Herasymivka Breach: RF claims of ongoing advance in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (18:23Z) are the primary tactical indicator for the next phase. If true, this means RF elements are deepening the bridgehead west of the Gaychur River, confirming successful initial infantry/light vehicle insertion.
• Zaporizhzhia Secondary Attack: Claims of local successes near Stepnohirsk (18:29Z) suggest RF is maximizing pressure along the Zaporizhzhia GLOC to draw UAF attention away from the critical Herasymivka area, consistent with a fixing operation.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk)

• Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: RF claims of fighting off counterattacks at Pokrovsk and "storming encircled Myrnohrad" (18:23Z) suggest continued, intense mechanized pressure on the Pokrovsk logistical hub, sustaining high-intensity combat operations in the area.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kharkiv/Kupyansk)

• Kupyansk Stabilization: UAF BDA confirming the destruction of a large RF assault group (39 personnel) (18:31Z) strengthens the assessment that UAF has regained the initiative in the Kupyansk urban area, countering earlier RF claims (18:06Z).
• New Aerial Threat: The detection of a UAV from the north aimed at Kharkiv (18:12Z) suggests RF is testing the depth of UAF Air Defense capabilities in the Northeast, possibly in preparation for targeted KAB/missile strikes on C2 or logistics hubs.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Priority Shift (HIGH Confidence): RF has confirmed the immediate pivot to maximizing UAV/drone saturation across critical operational rear areas (Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv). This indicates resources are being conserved for the ground maneuver phase (heavy armor insertion) while the aerial assets manage attrition and fixation.

2. RF Ground Maneuver Intent (MEDIUM Confidence): The corroborated RF claims of activity in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (18:23Z) and localized successes at Stepnohirsk (18:29Z) suggest RF forces are initiating or preparing the exploitation phase of the Herasymivka breach ahead of the anticipated 260th GRAU artillery surge.

3. Center Grouping Focus: The attributed combat report from the Center Grouping of Forces (18:23Z) highlights their commitment to the Pokrovsk axis, confirming the RF intent to keep the Donetsk front highly active regardless of the immediate Southern breach priority.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• UAV Tactical Dominance: UAF specialized units (e.g., Achilles 429th) continue to demonstrate crucial tactical superiority in attriting RF assault units, particularly in densely contested areas like Kupyansk (18:31Z). This capability remains essential for stabilizing the frontlines.
• Air Defense Alert: UAF Air Force is successfully tracking multiple, divergent UAV threat vectors simultaneously (Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv), maximizing early warning for civilian and military C2 protection.

Information environment / disinformation

• Geopolitical Win for RF (Temporary): The removal of the Russian asset confiscation discussion from the EU summit agenda (18:15Z) provides a valuable narrative win for RF state media, portraying Western resolve as fractured and uncertain.
• Domestic Pressure Indicator (RF): Polling suggesting that the Russian populace's main concern is the "end of the SVO" (18:16Z) highlights potential cognitive vulnerability. While currently managed by RF C2, sustained frontline failures could rapidly exacerbate this political pressure.
• Waning Volunteerism: Reports of stalled private donation campaigns for RF troops (18:19Z) suggest possible fatigue or resource strain within the non-state logistical support network, a potential long-term sustainment issue for the RF military.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate outlook remains governed by the execution timeline of the Herasymivka breach exploitation (MLCOA). The critical indicators are the status of the 260th GRAU artillery surge and confirmation of heavy armor crossing the Gaychur River.

MLCOA (Artillery Surge and Breach Consolidation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will initiate or intensify the heavy artillery surge (PIR 74 trigger) NLT 0300Z, 18 DEC. This is supported by the ongoing UAV saturation campaigns against Kryvyi Rih and Kharkiv, intended to dilute UAF Air Defense and prevent the rapid repositioning of counter-battery assets to the Dnipropetrovsk front. The tactical objective is to consolidate the 1km deep bridgehead and transition to insertion of heavy mechanized units.

MDCOA (Immediate Armored Thrust and Deep Rear Attack): (MEDIUM Confidence) Based on RF claims of advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (18:23Z), the MDCOA timeline may be accelerating. RF Vostok Group executes the armored thrust (MBTs/IFVs) across the Gaychur River and pushes immediately toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. This maneuver is synchronized with concentrated KAB/missile strikes on UAF logistics/C2 nodes in Zaporizhzhia and Pavlohrad to ensure tactical surprise and inhibit effective UAF defensive coordination.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements