Situation Report

Situation Update (18:05Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Sustained UAV Inflow (Odesa Axis): UAF Air Force confirmed a new wave of RF UAVs entering Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea (17:58Z, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, HIGH). This sustains the operational denial objective along the Southern GLOCs following the Artsyz outage.
• UAF Deep Strike Confirmed (Sevastopol): RF sources confirmed an active attack by UAF forces on Sevastopol (Crimea) (17:59Z, Операция Z, HIGH). This follows the air alert noted in the previous sitrep (17:08Z) and confirms continuous UAF asymmetric deep strike capability.
• Combined Kinetic Strike (Donetsk, Occupied): RF military bloggers reported a combined UAV and MLRS strike by UAF forces targeting occupied Donetsk City, with powerful explosions across multiple districts (17:43Z, Военкор Котенок, HIGH). This suggests high-precision counter-battery or targeted C2/logistics strikes.
• UAF Tactical Drone Success: UAF specialized unit RUBpAK ‘Vyriy’ documented the successful elimination of an enemy combatant in the Plavny operational area (18:00Z, DeepState, HIGH). This confirms the high effectiveness and prioritized deployment of UAF strike drone teams.
• RF Long-Term Intent Confirmed: President Zelenskyy publicly emphasized that Moscow's current signaling indicates preparation for a sustained year of war, asserting that diplomatic maneuvering is secondary to RF intent to destroy Ukraine (17:44Z, Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia)

The RF strategic emphasis remains focused on consolidating the Herasymivka bridgehead. The threat has shifted entirely to kinetic attrition and fixation, substituting the canceled ballistic strike with persistent aerial pressure.

• Air Domain: The immediate renewal of the UAV threat from the Black Sea toward Odesa (17:58Z) directly supports the operational objective of isolating the Southern operational area by denying logistics movement toward the breach (as evidenced by the Artsyz rail failure). UAF air defense must remain maximized across the Dnipropetrovsk/Odesa line.
• Counter-Offensive Capability (UAF): UAF deep strike units continue to compel RF resource allocation in the deep rear, demonstrated by the confirmed active attack on Sevastopol (17:59Z). This complicates RF allocation of air defense and electronic warfare assets.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk)

• Targeted Strikes (UAF): UAF execution of a combined UAV/MLRS attack on occupied Donetsk (17:43Z) suggests targeting high-value C2 nodes, logistics depots, or concentrated personnel areas. This aims to disrupt RF logistical flow supporting the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk axis.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Threat Profile (High Confidence): RF has fully executed the pivot from strategic ballistic missile strikes to continuous, low-cost kinetic attrition via UAV saturation and localized guided munitions/KABs. The current focus is on maintaining high kinetic tempo in three areas simultaneously: a. Operational Rear Fixation (Odesa/Kryvyi Rih): Sustained UAV waves (17:58Z) to fix UAF Air Defense resources. b. Forward Defense Attrition (Herasymivka): Use of FPVs, artillery, and ATGMs to prepare the ground for heavy armor insertion (Previous Sitrep 17:31Z). c. UAF Deep Strike Retaliation: RF is expected to respond kinetically to the confirmed UAF strikes on Donetsk and Sevastopol, potentially increasing KAB usage in rear areas (e.g., Zaporizhzhia).

2. Command Intent (HIGH Confidence): President Zelenskyy’s confirmation (17:44Z) that Moscow signals intent for a multi-year war, treating diplomacy as a cover, validates the analysis that RF military operations will maintain high intensity regardless of external diplomatic status. This supports the MLCOA of prioritizing territory seizure (Herasymivka breach, Siversk objective) over negotiated settlement.

3. Morale Sustainment: RF C2 is leveraging organized, centralized morale initiatives (e.g., Moscow New Year greetings campaign) (17:39Z). This indicates a strategic, long-term commitment to sustaining morale among frontline troops despite ongoing attrition.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• C2 & Strategic Clarity: President Zelenskyy's address provides crucial strategic clarity, ensuring partners and domestic populations understand the non-negotiable nature of the conflict and RF long-term intent, aiding in securing sustained international support.
• Specialized UAV Unit Focus: The documentation of success by RUBpAK ‘Vyriy’ (18:00Z) and the high-quality recruitment drive for the ‘Ghost of Khortytsia’ battalion (18:03Z) confirm UAF intent to double down on decentralized, technologically superior UAV operations as the primary tactical advantage.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is structured to manage domestic expectations and influence Western perceptions:

1. Domestic Distraction/Normalization: RF state media attempts to frame domestic disputes (e.g., the Dolina case) as systemic issues that require comprehensive review (17:35Z), distracting from military failures while maintaining a veneer of judicial oversight. The simultaneous reporting of normal winter recreation (Moscow skating rinks, 18:03Z) aims to project stability and normalcy.
2. Geopolitical Pressure: RF sources utilize statements by Western political figures (Merz, 17:41Z) regarding future security missions to feed the narrative that NATO intends to permanently occupy Ukraine, justifying continued military aggression.
3. Diplomatic/Defense Industry Friction: Reports that Turkey may seek to return S-400 systems to Russia (17:56Z, MEDIUM confidence) are being used by both sides. For UAF, this highlights Russia's weakening strategic position and defense export reliability; for RF, it remains a domestic topic of frustration regarding loss of strategic influence.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The tactical situation at Herasymivka remains the decisive point. All RF kinetic activity (Donetsk strike response, Odesa UAV saturation) is aimed at fixing UAF reserves away from the breach. The timing of the heavy armor crossing is contingent on the 260th GRAU artillery surge.

MLCOA (Artillery Surge and Consolidation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will execute the previously anticipated massive artillery surge (PIR 74, 260th GRAU status) NLT 0300Z, 18 DEC. This surge, supported by the ongoing UAV saturation in the rear, will suppress UAF counter-battery fire and enable the insertion of heavy armor (MBTs/IFVs) across the Gaychur River. Immediate objective remains the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.

MDCOA (Simultaneous Armor Thrust and KAB Retaliation): (MEDIUM Confidence) Following the UAF deep strikes on Donetsk and Sevastopol, RF Vostok Group simultaneously initiates the armored thrust at Herasymivka (e.g., 2000Z - 2300Z) AND authorizes significant escalation of KAB strikes against logistical hubs in Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia City to induce panic and overwhelm civilian services, preventing effective UAF C2 response to the ground maneuver.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements