Situation Report

Situation Update (17:35Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Ballistic Missile Threat Rescinded: The critical threat alert for ballistic missile use originating from the Southern direction (active since 16:44Z) was officially cancelled by UAF Air Force (17:29Z, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, HIGH).
• Sustained UAV Activity (Multi-Axis): RF forces immediately leveraged drone assets upon the alert cancellation, detecting UAVs inbound toward Kryvyi Rih (17:16Z), over Odesa Oblast (Serhiivka) (17:00Z), and pursuing a course toward Slavutych in Chernihiv Oblast (17:15Z). (HIGH confidence).
• UAF Counter-UAS Success: UAF Air Command confirmed the successful interception and destruction of an RF UAV over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the day (17:11Z, Дніпропетровська ОДА, HIGH).
• RF Propaganda Focus on Huliaipole: RF sources claim the situation near Huliaipole is "very complex" for UAF (17:23Z, Дневник Десантника, UNCONFIRMED), reinforcing the narrative of collapsing defenses adjacent to the critical Herasymivka bridgehead.
• Sevastopol Air Alert: Active civil defense alerts were issued in Sevastopol (Crimea) (17:08Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH), indicating UAF deep strike/asymmetric capabilities continue to force RF defensive responses in the occupied deep rear.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia)

The immediate kinetic shock threat has subsided, but RF intent remains fixed on exploiting the Herasymivka salient. The cancellation of the 16:44Z ballistic strike alert grants UAF a crucial temporary reprieve in C2 and logistics coordination.

• Kinetic Threat: While the deep missile threat is mitigated (17:29Z), the threat from tactical attrition assets is rising. UAVs are actively targeting the operational rear (Kryvyi Rih threat is active) to delay UAF reserve movement toward the Gaychur River (17:16Z).
• Frontline Pressure: RF Vostok Group confirms continued use of anti-tank guided missiles (Fagot ATGM) against UAF strongholds near Huliaipole (17:31Z), suggesting attempts to widen the pressure area surrounding the Herasymivka breach. RF sources claim UAF acknowledges severe difficulties in this area (17:23Z, UNCONFIRMED).

NORTHEAST AXIS (Lyman/Kupyansk)

• Air Domain Dominance: UAF reports significant success in countering RF aerial threats in the Lyman sector (17:16Z), suggesting the UAF strategy of high-density counter-UAS deployment and specialized drone units remains effective in stabilizing the front line.

NORTHERN AXIS (Chernihiv)

• Reconnaissance/Interdiction: An RF UAV tracked toward Slavutych (17:15Z) indicates continuous reconnaissance or potential targeted interdiction missions against high-value logistics or infrastructure nodes near the northern border, likely aiming to fix UAF Northern reserves.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Threat Adaptation (CRITICAL): The enemy’s immediate adaptation to the non-execution of the ballistic missile strike is a sustained, high-tempo, multi-axis UAV campaign (Odesa, Chernihiv, Kryvyi Rih). This forces UAF to expend valuable air defense resources across a broader geographic area, achieving the fixation objective without the need for high-value strategic missile assets.

2. UAV Doctrine Confirmation: RF propaganda continues to heavily feature the effectiveness of FPV drone units (north of Chasiv Yar) and specialized units like "Rubicon" (17:03Z), confirming that highly decentralized, UAV-centric attrition remains the core tactical approach across multiple fronts.

3. Targeting Intentions: The simultaneous UAV threats toward the Black Sea coast (Odesa) and the logistical hub (Kryvyi Rih) suggests RF intends to maintain pressure on Southern GLOCs, reinforcing the operational denial achieved by the Artsyz infrastructure failure (Previous Daily Report).

4. FSB Activity in Occupied Territories: The detention of a 16-year-old in Mariupol for alleged "terrorist activity" (17:15Z) indicates sustained RF counter-subversion and internal security operations are prioritized in occupied areas to crush nascent resistance movements.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense Posture: UAF AD successfully engaged and eliminated threats in Dnipropetrovsk and provided effective coverage in the Lyman sector, confirming high readiness levels against kinetic aerial threats (17:11Z, 17:16Z).
• Information Operations: UAF disseminated a video confession of a captured Belarusian national fighting for RF (17:31Z), continuing the focused PSYOPS campaign targeting RF foreign recruitment and impacting Belarusian domestic narratives.
• Rear Area Governance: The Zaporizhzhia OVA continued routine civil announcements (e.g., craft market, 17:18Z), signaling operational stability and resilience in the face of ongoing urban KAB strikes, counteracting RF attempts to generate panic.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is attempting to achieve cognitive fragmentation through synchronized narratives:

1. Economic Warfare Narrative: RF media is actively pushing the narrative that Ukraine is "on the brink of bankruptcy" (17:22Z), citing the IMF (sensationalized claim). This is a focused effort to erode confidence among Western partners ahead of critical funding decisions.
2. Domestic Friction Management (RF): RF state media briefly addressed and contained minor domestic political scandals regarding the treatment of fallen soldiers' families (17:12Z). This demonstrates RF C2’s attempt to quickly isolate and neutralize internal friction points that threaten morale.
3. Recruitment Glorification: Continuous high-production value media featuring tank commanders ("Yantik") and successful specialized units ("Rubicon") serves as a persistent, high-confidence recruitment drive targeting specific demographics (17:02Z, 17:03Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The cancellation of the ballistic strike (17:29Z) complicates the immediate pre-assault kinetic synchronization but does not change the RF strategic intent to exploit the Herasymivka bridgehead. RF C2 will pivot to relying on sustained massed fires and UAV saturation.

MLCOA (Refocused Attrition and Delayed Armor): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will substitute the planned ballistic strike with increased artillery fire (the predicted 260th GRAU surge remains the highest kinetic indicator) and maximize KAB and UAV strikes against the immediate operational rear (Kryvyi Rih/Zaporizhzhia). This will serve to fix UAF reserves and attrite forward defenses. The crossing of heavy armored vehicles across the Gaychur River will be delayed, likely commencing NLT 0300Z, 18 DEC, instead of the previously projected 2200Z, 17 DEC.

MDCOA (Unprepared Armor Thrust): (MEDIUM Confidence) Despite the lack of deep kinetic preparation, RF Vostok Group may commit a smaller, operationally ready armored task force immediately upon saturation of artillery fire (e.g., 2000Z - 2200Z) if tactical indicators suggest UAF C2 has lowered its guard following the ballistic threat cancellation. The goal remains rapid penetration toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements