Situation Report

Situation Update (17:05Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This update focuses on the immediate kinetic threats in the Southern Operational Zone, the confirmed escalation of civilian casualties due to RF aerial strikes, and the continued high-confidence assessment of Russia's strategic commitment to a multi-year conflict. Tactical execution in the Southern sector validates the RF's new drone-centric doctrine.

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF Sustained Strategic Commitment Reinforced: RF military expenditure linked to the conflict reached over 11 trillion rubles in 2025, corroborating earlier reports of a sustained, high-priority commitment well into 2026. (16:50Z, ASTRA, HIGH)
• Escalated Civilian Impact in Zaporizhzhia: The casualty count from the recent RF Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strike in Zaporizhzhia City has increased to 30 injured, including 5 children, confirming the severe humanitarian consequences of the urban targeting campaign. (16:48Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH)
• Immediate Ballistic Missile Threat: UAF Air Force issued a tactical warning concerning the imminent threat of ballistic missile use originating from the Southern direction. (16:44Z, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, HIGH)
• Tactical Doctrine Confirmed (Southern Axis): RF Vostok Group forces confirmed the primary use of FPV drone operators (30th Separate Spetsnaz Company, 36th Army) to engage UAF armor, C2, and logistics, validating the newly announced UAV-centric attrition doctrine in the Herasymivka AOR. (17:00Z, Воин DV, HIGH)
• UAF Strategic Warning: President Zelenskyy issued a high-urgency appeal, warning that Moscow is preparing 2026 as a "year of war" and that Western partners must reject any diplomatic efforts used by RF to "legitimize the theft of Ukrainian land." (16:36Z-16:55Z, Запорізька ОВА, HIGH)

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia)

The focus remains on containing the Herasymivka salient and managing critical infrastructure protection amidst a heightened kinetic threat.

• Kinetic Threat: A CRITICAL ballistic missile threat alert (16:44Z) is active from the Southern vector, likely targeting UAF staging areas or critical logistical nodes in the operational rear (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk administrative areas) to prevent the reinforcement of the Gaychur River bridgehead.
• Attrition Warfare Execution: RF Vostok Group reports confirm the reliance on decentralized FPV teams for precision kinetic engagement against UAF equipment and C2 points near the frontline (17:00Z). This suggests the RF objective is maximizing attrition of UAF tactical reserves and inhibiting effective counter-attack coordination against the bridgehead, rather than relying solely on massed heavy fire (though the 260th GRAU threat remains).
• Urban Targeting: The confirmed rise in civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia (16:48Z) reinforces the assessment that the RF KAB campaign aims to generate panic and force UAF operational focus away from the frontline breach.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk, Luhansk)

No significant ground maneuver updates since the previous report. The environment is dominated by RF drone attrition and information warfare.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kupyansk)

• Information Stabilization: UAF OSINT group DeepState successfully counter-propagated RF attempts to refute the loss of Kupyansk, identifying RF video claims as being filmed 20km away in Tavilzhanka (16:40Z). This solidifies the UAF control assessment (90% cleared).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Strategic Deterrence & Commitment: RF strategic messaging is attempting to link tactical escalation with strategic stability. The RVSN commander's claim of 90% modernization of strategic missile forces (16:45Z, UNCONFIRMED accuracy) is a clear strategic deterrence signal aimed at the West, coinciding directly with confirmed high operational spending (11 trillion RUB) and aggressive tactical maneuvers. The intent is to signal enduring commitment while projecting escalation dominance.

2. Tactical Adaptations (Southern Front): The primary tactical adaptation is the immediate, decentralized application of the "UAVs as main strike force" doctrine by Vostok Group near Herasymivka. This rapid shift minimizes RF manpower risk while maximizing operational tempo and interdiction against UAF mobility and C2 within the salient's immediate vicinity.

3. Threat Intentions (Next 6-12h): The immediate Ballistic Missile Alert (16:44Z) suggests RF intentions to deliver deep kinetic strikes to further paralyze UAF logistics and C2 before attempting major armor insertion across the Gaychur River (PIR 1, CRITICAL).

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Strategic Communication: President Zelenskyy's continued forceful messaging reinforces the strategic narrative that RF is committed to prolonged war (2026) and that Western support must escalate accordingly. This pre-empts potential Western diplomatic pressure for unfavorable negotiated outcomes.
• Counter-Propaganda Success: UAF OSINT assets demonstrated effective real-time counter-propaganda, neutralizing RF attempts to destabilize the cognitive domain regarding the Kupyansk sector.
• Personnel and Morale Operations: The UAF release of an interview/confession by a captured Kazakh fighter (15:55Z) is an effective information operation targeting the recruitment and morale of foreign nationals fighting for RF.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment (IE) is characterized by synchronized strategic reassurance (RF domestic) and tactical fear projection (Ukraine):

1. RF Strategic Narratives: Focus is split between projecting overwhelming strategic deterrence (RVSN modernization) and internal stability (minor public order fines in Moscow). This maintains high domestic support for the continued war economy.
2. External Pressure Narratives: RF media (Операция Z) is amplifying reports that the US is considering F-35s and Tomahawks as security guarantees (16:49Z). This narrative is dual-purpose: domestically, it justifies high military spending; externally, it tests Western willingness to escalate security support.
3. Humanitarian Crisis Amplification: UAF channels are effectively documenting and reporting the confirmed increase in civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia, maintaining the narrative of RF war crimes and maximizing urgency for international support.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The confirmed ballistic missile threat from the South elevates the immediate risk to UAF rear areas, potentially setting conditions for a rapid exploitation of the Herasymivka bridgehead.

MLCOA (Kinetic Preparations and Fixation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will execute the expected ballistic missile strike (16:44Z alert) targeting critical UAF command posts, ammunition storage, or logistical hubs in the Southern Operational Rear. This strike will be synchronized with maximal FPV and artillery fixation fires (the anticipated 260th GRAU surge) against the immediate frontline at Herasymivka to delay UAF reserve deployment. Heavy armored vehicles (MBTs/IFVs) will likely commence crossing the Gaychur River after 2200Z once forward defenses are sufficiently attrited.

MDCOA (Operational Breakout Post-Strike): (MEDIUM Confidence) If the ballistic strike successfully degrades UAF C2 or paralyzes a major logistics node, RF Vostok Group will immediately commit an armored task force (likely the most combat-ready elements near the salient) to push rapidly northwest toward the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border before UAF tactical command can recover from the kinetic shock.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements