Situation Report

Situation Update (16:35Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This update focuses on the escalating strategic commitment and institutional modernization of the Russian Federation (RF), confirmed tactical successes by UAF Special Operations Forces (SSO), and the immediate logistical impact of recent RF energy strikes. The strategic threat remains RF exploitation of the Herasymivka breach while fixing UAF reserves through persistent long-range strikes and high-attrition drone warfare.

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF Operational Doctrine Shift (UAVs): The RF Ministry of Defence (MoD) officially designated Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) as the "main strike force," confirming a shift in operational doctrine toward decentralized, drone-centric attrition warfare. (16:07Z, MoD Russia, HIGH)
• RF Long-Term Strategic Commitment: RF spending on the war reached 5.1% of GDP in 2025, exceeding budget allocations for social policy, healthcare, and education, confirming a sustained, high-priority commitment to the conflict well into 2026. (16:10Z, Север.Реалии, HIGH)
• UAF Logistics Interdiction Success: UAF SSO released video confirmation of the destruction of an RF artillery warehouse in occupied Luhansk Oblast, providing temporary degradation of RF Class V (Ammunition) sustainment in the Eastern Operational Zone. (16:15Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH)
• RF Institutional Modernization: Defence Minister Belousov detailed new priorities including establishing a unified digital C2 environment, modernizing military education, and enhancing troop social security, indicating preparations for a multi-year conflict and professionalized force generation. (16:26Z-16:30Z, MoD Russia, HIGH)
• Nationwide Power Outage Confirmed: Ukrenergo confirmed scheduled rolling power outages (GHO) and industrial power limitations for most regions tomorrow, validating the operational effectiveness of recent RF strikes against the energy grid. (16:30Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH)

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia)

The tactical requirement remains containment of the 1km deep salient at Herasymivka.

• Logistics Degradation Impact: The confirmed General Hourly Outages (GHO) for tomorrow (16:30Z) compounds the effect of the Artsyz rail interdiction (until 26 DEC). This sustained disruption severely complicates UAF ability to rapidly move reserves, equipment, and Class V materiel to contain the Herasymivka breach.
• Aerial Pressure: No new KAB strikes reported since the previous kinetic pressure cycle lifted, but the confirmation of nationwide grid instability suggests the desired operational effect (UAF logistical paralysis) has been achieved by RF.

EASTERN AXIS (Lyman, Siversk, Luhansk)

• Localized Logistics Setback for RF: The UAF SSO destruction of an RF artillery warehouse in Luhansk (16:15Z) represents a minor but valuable kinetic blow to RF fire support capabilities, particularly relevant given the high readiness assessment for the 260th GRAU surge.
• Attrition Warfare: RF reporting on the Krasnolymansk sector emphasizes attritional drone warfare (16:26Z), corroborating the MoD's newly stated doctrine focusing on UAVs as the "main strike force."

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kupyansk)

• Information Contestation: RF media (Colonelcassad) is attempting to undermine confirmed UAF control of Kupyansk (90% cleared) by promoting unconfirmed reports of new UAF POW captures in the area. This signifies Kupyansk remains a high-value cognitive objective for RF.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Strategic Threat Assessment (Sustainment): The key threat shift is the RF commitment to a multi-year high-intensity war. The confirmed budget allocation (5.1% GDP) combined with Belousov's comprehensive institutional reforms (digital C2, streamlined logistics, enhanced social security) indicates Moscow is professionalizing and restructuring its military to sustain the fight indefinitely, effectively normalizing the war economy. This increases the risk of RF operational endurance exceeding current Western support timelines.

2. Tactical Doctrine Evolution: RF formal acknowledgement of UAVs as the "main strike force" (16:07Z) confirms the shift from heavy mechanized warfare to drone-intensive attrition. This minimizes RF personnel loss risk while maximizing UAF logistical and personnel casualties, especially against lower-quality, high-attrition fixation forces like the confirmed 228th MSRP near Siversk.

3. Intentions (Donetsk): UNCONFIRMED reports from pro-RF sources (16:12Z) alleging internal UAF discussions about a "painful, but positive" withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast are considered high-impact, politically motivated disinformation (Confidence: LOW). However, this narrative must be monitored closely as it signals potential RF intent to negotiate from a position of perceived strength following tactical gains.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Deep Strike Continuation: UAF maintained pressure on RF rear areas, resulting in casualties (1 KIA, 10 WIA) from drone strikes in Belgorod Oblast (16:28Z). This ties down RF air defenses and counter-battery resources away from the primary front lines.
• Strategic Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy's confirmed attendance at the EU Summit (18-19 DEC) (16:27Z) is a crucial step to stabilize international support following the removal of the asset confiscation item from the EU agenda. Positive bilateral dialogue with Czechia (16:08Z) reinforces ammunition sourcing efforts.
• Counter-Narrative: President Zelenskyy issued a clear counter-narrative (16:33Z), stating that Moscow is preparing 2026 as a "year of war," directly challenging Western narratives suggesting RF willingness to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is characterized by deep polarization and strategic distraction:

1. RF Strategic Narratives: Focus is split between projecting overwhelming technological superiority (UAV doctrine, digital C2) and internal reassurance (welfare/medical priority). This stabilizes the domestic support base for continued conflict.
2. Destabilization Narratives: Pro-RF media is actively amplifying two key points of friction: the alleged UAF internal debate on withdrawing from Donetsk and the refutation of UAF successes in Kupyansk, aiming to generate internal UAF military and political friction.
3. Energy Impact Confirmation: Ukrenergo confirming GHOs legitimizes the RF campaign against critical infrastructure in the cognitive domain, potentially lowering public morale regarding resilience.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The primary tactical threat remains the immediate consolidation and potential exploitation of the Herasymivka salient, now augmented by confirmed strategic logistical degradation across Ukraine.

MLCOA (Exploitation of Logistical Paralysis): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will utilize the confirmed GHO/logistical constraint window to maximize preparatory artillery fires (e.g., the expected 260th GRAU surge) and fix UAF reserves. Initial heavy mechanized components (IFVs/APCs) will likely cross the Gaychur River into the Herasymivka bridgehead after 2100Z, without a full armored breakout, setting conditions for a major offensive NLT 0600Z tomorrow.

MDCOA (Operational Breakout): (MEDIUM Confidence) RF Vostok Group attempts to immediately push an armored spearhead (MBTs) from the Herasymivka bridgehead towards the Dnipropetrovsk border (northwest), exploiting the GHO window before UAF command can effectively reroute reserves through newly strained central logistics routes.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements