Situation Report

Situation Update (16:10Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This update integrates new intelligence regarding confirmed RF unit disposition on the Siversk axis, ongoing high-level RF information operations regarding combat capability, and continuing strategic friction in the financial domain. The focus remains on RF efforts to consolidate the Gaychur River bridgehead while fixing UAF reserves in the East.

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF Unit Identification (Siversk): UAF 81st Airmobile Brigade captured a contract soldier from the RF 228th Motor Rifle Regiment (228th MSRP) near Siversk, providing confirmed unit presence and tactical intelligence regarding low morale and logistical/starvation issues within the formation. (15:37Z, Николаевский Ванёк, MEDIUM Confidence)
• RF Strategic Production Claims: RF Defense Minister Belousov stated that two new Tu-160M strategic bombers were delivered in 2025, alongside a claimed one-third increase in overall deliveries of major weapons, military hardware, and ammunition this year. This is designed to project strategic military sustainability. (15:47Z, 16:02Z, MoD Russia/Colonelcassad, HIGH Confidence)
• Kupyansk Disinformation Escalation: RF MoD officially asserted continued control over Kupyansk, directly contradicting recent UAF confirmations of regaining 90% of the city. This reinforces the city's status as a major cognitive objective for RF IO. (15:55Z, ASTRA, HIGH Confidence (Statement Fact))
• EU Asset Confiscation Removed from Agenda: Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán confirmed the immediate removal of the discussion on confiscating frozen Russian assets from the EU Summit agenda, creating strategic financial uncertainty, despite subsequent reports of US intent to utilize the funds for crisis settlement. (15:49Z, Операция Z, HIGH Confidence)

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia)

The tactical requirement remains containment of the 1km deep salient at Herasymivka.

• Kinetic Fixation: Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has lifted (15:51Z), concluding the immediate kinetic pressure cycle noted in the previous report. This likely marks a temporary RF pause before resuming KAB/UAV strikes designed to disrupt UAF logistics and fix reserves away from the Gaychur breach.
• Logistics Status: The Artsyz rail corridor interdiction remains critical until 26 DEC. The immediate threat to the Southern GLOC forces UAF J4 to utilize alternate, less efficient northern routes (PIR P2 from previous daily report is reinforced).

EASTERN AXIS (Siversk, Pokrovsk)

• Siversk Reinforcement/Degradation: The capture of personnel from the 228th MSRP confirms RF forces are generating momentum toward the Siversk axis, validating the MLCOA from the previous report. However, the accompanying testimony regarding extreme morale degradation, high drone casualties, and starvation raises questions about the overall combat effectiveness of the formation, suggesting it may be intended as a lower-quality fixation force.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kupyansk)

• Information Contestation: The highly publicized RF MoD claim regarding Kupyansk (15:55Z) indicates that even minor UAF tactical successes are viewed as strategic information failures by Moscow. RF forces are likely attempting to maintain pressure on the Kupyansk line to provide some measure of credibility to the false MoD claim.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Strategic Projection of Power: The coordinated statements by RF Defence Minister Belousov (Tu-160M modernization, 33% supply increase) are highly correlated with the RF need to demonstrate strategic endurance and industrial superiority, especially as fighting escalates. This supports the long-term assessment of RF willingness to sustain high attrition rates.

2. Asymmetric Threat (Siversk): The 228th MSRP is likely suffering significant internal stress. This unit, designated for operations near Siversk, presents a paradox: its presence confirms RF intent to attack/fix, but its documented poor internal condition (low morale, hunger) may make it vulnerable to concentrated UAF counter-attacks or psychological operations.

3. Maritime Security Escalation: RF reports of armed security on their "shadow fleet" oil tankers (15:40Z) signals an attempt to harden their most critical export revenue streams against potential UAF deep-strike naval or air assets, raising the risk profile in high-traffic maritime corridors. The separate report of tankers stuck near China due to falling Indian demand (15:44Z) suggests RF resource generation faces increasing economic volatility regardless of security measures.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Tactical Intelligence Exploitation: The capture of the 228th MSRP soldier is a high-value intelligence gain. UAF Command must rapidly disseminate the findings (low morale, specific drone casualty types) to tactical units on the Siversk front to inform targeted fire plans and infiltration operations.
• Strategic Assurance: Germany's commitment to security assurances (16:00Z) helps stabilize the geopolitical domain and provides a diplomatic counterpoint to the negative financial news from the EU Summit agenda setting.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is dominated by synchronized high-level RF narratives aimed at projecting strength and division:

1. RF Strategic Narrative: RF media is amplifying the high-production capacity claims and the fictional narrative of Kupyansk control to mask tactical setbacks and solidify the perception of overwhelming strength.
2. EU Discord Exploitation: RF sources (TASS, Операция Z) are leveraging Hungary's diplomatic win regarding the asset confiscation agenda to demonstrate significant fracture within EU resolve, which directly undermines UAF confidence in long-term financial support.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The primary threat remains the operational breach at Herasymivka. The confirmed unit presence at Siversk necessitates preparation for a fixing attack, although its quality may be suspect.

MLCOA (Logistics Exploitation and Fixed-Wing Fixation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will likely initiate a new cycle of large-scale KAB strikes targeting logistics and critical infrastructure in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk rear area before 2400Z. Simultaneously, heavy preparatory artillery fires (precursor to the 260th GRAU surge) will commence against the Siversk-Lyman axis utilizing the confirmed presence of the 228th MSRP as the spearhead/fixation force.

MDCOA (Immediate Armored Breakout at Herasymivka): (MEDIUM Confidence) RF Vostok Group attempts to rapidly cross heavy mechanized assets into the 1km bridgehead at Herasymivka, exploiting the window before UAF reserves can be committed and before the logistical disruption caused by the Artsyz outage can be fully mitigated.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements