Situation Report

Situation Update (15:35Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This update focuses on the continuation of the Russian Federation (RF) deep strike campaign in the South and significant positive and negative developments in the diplomatic and logistical domains.

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF Kinetic Activity Sustained (Zaporizhzhia): RF forces continue the coordinated aerial campaign against rear operational areas, confirming multiple KAB launches toward Zaporizhzhia Oblast (15:19Z, Air Force UA) and reporting a subsequent UAV strike causing casualties in the Zaporizhzhia district (15:30Z, ZAP OVIA). (HIGH Confidence)
• EU Military Mobility Boost: The European Parliament has formally endorsed the "Military Schengen" strategy (also termed Military Mobility Strategy), aimed at streamlining the rapid cross-border movement of military assets, which enhances future NATO and EU logistical support responsiveness (15:03Z, 15:34Z, РБК-Україна/DeepState). (HIGH Confidence)
• UAF Counter-SAM Success: UAF forces reported the engagement and destruction of an RF Buk-M2 Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) system, demonstrating effective SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) capability against a high-value asset (15:23Z, Оперативний ЗСУ). (MEDIUM Confidence)
• Southern Friction Continues: Fighting is confirmed near Stepnohirsk/Lukyanivske (15:34Z), confirming UAF engagement in limiting RF advances on the Velyka Novosilka flank, while RF sources continue to claim expansion of the Herasymivka bridgehead (15:15Z). (MEDIUM Confidence)

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia)

The tactical situation remains CRITICAL due to the confirmed logistical disruption at Artsyz and the active breach at Herasymivka.

• Deep Fires: RF air operations remain relentless. The sustained KAB/UAV strikes are designed to maximize rear area disruption and force UAF air defense redeployment away from the front lines. The focus is specifically on the Zaporizhzhia region, which acts as a key staging area for the Southern front.
• Ground Maneuver: RF intent is clearly focused on consolidating the Gaychur River bridgehead. While RF claims of "expansion" are unconfirmed by UAF sources, intense localized fighting around key defensive shoulders (Stepnohirsk, Lukyanivske) confirms UAF forces are actively engaged in containment operations.

EASTERN AXIS (Krasnoarmiisk, Pokrovsk)

Operational pace remains high attrition. RF information operations are attempting to amplify UAF equipment losses in the Krasnoarmiiskyi direction (15:35Z), likely softening the information environment for future RF assaults in this general area.

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kupyansk)

RF reporting suggests continued infrastructure interdiction, claiming a damaged bridge structure (15:31Z). This activity supports the broader RF strategy of degrading UAF mobility even where UAF tactical control has recently improved (Kupyansk city center, per previous daily report).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Logistics Strangulation and Fixation: RF forces are systematically executing the logistics strangulation strategy through both infrastructure strikes (Artsyz) and rear-area kinetic attacks (Zaporizhzhia KAB/UAV). This forces UAF command to divert critical assets (air defense, diesel locomotives, security forces) to the rear, facilitating continued operational momentum at the Herasymivka breach. 2. Command Adaptation: The persistent psychological and information pressure regarding Siversk (per previous sitrep) is now supplemented by localized attempts to create panic or demoralization by leveraging drone footage of UAF losses (15:35Z). 3. Counter-Air Vulnerability: The successful UAF destruction of the Buk-M2 SAM system confirms that RF Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS) remain vulnerable to persistent UAF SEAD efforts, particularly from specialized drone teams. This represents an intelligence opportunity to exploit gaps in RF air coverage.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• SEAD Exploitation: The confirmed successful targeting of the Buk-M2 indicates UAF forces possess the necessary ISR and kinetic integration to prosecute high-value RF air defense systems. This success should be immediately leveraged to increase ISR coverage over critical sectors (e.g., Herasymivka crossing points) while RF attempts to re-establish air defense coverage.
• Strategic Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy's upcoming participation in the EU Leaders Summit is timely, occurring immediately after the EU parliament passed the Military Mobility Strategy. This provides a platform to reinforce security and logistical priorities, counterbalancing potential financial friction highlighted by Hungarian opposition to asset confiscation (15:35Z).

Information environment / disinformation

The informational domain presents a complex operational picture: strong strategic logistics support from the EU is contrasted with potential financial headwinds and localized Russian morale boosting:

1. Strategic Support: The passage of the "Military Schengen" strategy represents a structural improvement in NATO/EU logistical capability, reducing transit times for future support convoys.
2. Financial Headwind: Hungarian signaling that Russian asset confiscation is off the immediate EU Summit agenda (15:35Z) increases uncertainty regarding a key source of potential long-term financial support for Ukraine.
3. RF Tactical Narrative: RF channels are pushing video evidence of UAF vehicle losses (Krasnoarmiisk) to demoralize troops and present a narrative of sustained battlefield dominance through UAV usage.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Logistics Exploitation and Siversk Preparation): (HIGH Confidence) RF will maintain the kinetic pressure on Zaporizhzhia Oblast using KAB/UAV strikes to exploit the logistical chaos caused by the Artsyz outage. Concurrently, based on previous strategic signaling, RF forces will commence highly visible, large-scale preparatory artillery and KAB fires along the Siversk-Lyman axis NLT 2100Z to enforce the perception of an imminent offensive and draw UAF reserves.

MDCOA (Immediate Armored Breakout at Herasymivka): (MEDIUM Confidence) RF Vostok Group attempts to rapidly cross heavy mechanized assets (MBTs/IFVs) into the 1km bridgehead at Herasymivka immediately, before UAF command can effectively reroute reserves or exploit the confirmed gap in RF air defense created by the Buk-M2 loss.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements