Situation Report

Situation Update (14:15Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This report focuses on the confirmed continuation of the Russian Federation (RF) Aerial Attrition Campaign in the Northeast and the institutional disconnect revealed by high-level RF statements regarding tactical control in the Eastern Axis.

Key updates since last sitrep

• KAB Strike Confirmation (Kharkiv NE): UAF Air Force confirms a new Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strike on Stary Saltiv (13:52Z, Air Force, HIGH). This validates the projection of sustained RF pressure and geographical expansion of the aerial threat in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Eastern Front Heavy Fighting: Pro-RF sources report heavy fighting in the Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) direction, specifically detailing clashes near Hryshyne and Myrnohrad (Dimitrov) (13:39Z, Desantnika, MEDIUM). This indicates RF ground efforts are maintained at a high tempo in a critical sector.
• RF Disinformation on Kupyansk: Russian MoD officials (Belousov) publicly claimed the RF army has captured Kupyansk, suggesting UAF forces are "unsuccessfully trying to regain control" (13:53Z, Butusov/Colonelcassad, HIGH). This represents a significant, high-level tactical misrepresentation designed for domestic consumption.
• Zaporizhzhia Attack Aftermath: The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (ZOVA) confirms that casualties from the recent enemy strike (shrapnel wounds, concussions, acute stress reaction) continue to strain local medical facilities (13:55Z, ZOVA, HIGH).
• RF Strategic Posture Revealed: Key RF political and military leadership (Putin, Belousov, Gerasimov) held an expanded MoD Collegium, indicating the formulation and dissemination of strategic military goals for the coming period (13:45Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kharkiv, Kupyansk)

RF operations are characterized by sustained aerial preparatory fires designed to disrupt UAF staging and logistics.

• Stary Saltiv Strike: The confirmed KAB strike (13:52Z) on Stary Saltiv, northeast of Kharkiv City, demonstrates RF intent to target infrastructure and centers of population outside the immediate frontline area, reinforcing the fixing effect of the overall air campaign.
• Kupyansk: The sector remains firmly under Ukrainian control, evidenced by the UAF response to the demonstrably false RF claims of capture (13:53Z). However, RF fixation efforts, including artillery and aviation, remain persistent.

EASTERN AXIS (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk)

• Krasnoarmiysk Pressure: RF ground forces continue to push hard toward the key operational objective of Krasnoarmiysk. Reports of heavy fighting near Hryshyne and Myrnohrad (13:39Z) confirm the high intensity of close-quarters combat necessary to defend the salient's western flank. UAF units in this area are under maximum kinetic pressure.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Zaporizhzhia)

• Impact Assessment: The immediate operational focus shifts to damage control and casualty management following recent strikes. The high number of stress reactions reported (13:55Z) suggests the recent KAB strikes utilized large munitions in densely populated areas, achieving a high psychological impact.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Strategic Narrative vs. Reality (C2 Disconnect): The high-level false claim regarding Kupyansk capture (13:53Z) is a CRITICAL indicator of the information environment RF leadership is building internally. This strategic narrative may preemptively justify resource allocation or mobilization measures based on fictionalized success, potentially leading to unrealistic or poorly supported objectives for frontline commanders.

2. Aerial Attrition Refinement: The confirmed KAB strike at Stary Saltiv confirms the RF capability to shift target sets rapidly within the Kharkiv region. This is likely a test of UAF air defense responsiveness and density, seeking weaknesses to exploit for subsequent, more damaging strikes on logistics centers. The threat posture remains CRITICAL (PIR 52/53).

3. Coordinated Ground Pressure: The heavy fighting near Krasnoarmiysk (13:39Z) suggests that RF Vostok Group continues its strategy of fixing UAF reserves in the Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole area (as noted in the previous sitrep) while simultaneously launching major attacks on the key logistical node of Krasnoarmiysk.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF activity is characterized by robust defense maintenance and strong domestic mobilization.

• Defense Integrity: UAF forces are successfully holding ground against heavy RF assault near Krasnoarmiysk, preventing RF forces from leveraging the heavy KAB coverage into a ground breakthrough.
• Internal Resilience: UAF-aligned civilian efforts continue to successfully mobilize significant financial resources (13:51Z), addressing the critical material gaps identified in the previous sitrep (13:33Z). This demonstrates strong civil-military cohesion.
• Institutional Stability: The continuation of high-profile anti-corruption legal proceedings (13:57Z) signals UAF commitment to internal governance and reduces potential RF IO exploitation vectors regarding alleged institutional decay.

Information environment / disinformation

RF information operations are exploiting high-level media events (MoD Collegium) to disseminate tactical lies (Kupyansk claim) and utilizing international media commentary (The Spectator) to generate doubt regarding Western capacity and long-term commitment (13:45Z, 13:45Z). This strategy aims to reduce morale internationally while inflating domestic confidence. Another concurrent IO vector seeks to undermine support for refugees in Poland (13:58Z), attempting to fragment European cohesion.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Sustained Kinetic and IO Pressure): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will maintain the HIGH tempo of KAB strikes across Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, prioritizing degradation of UAF logistics capability. The MoD Collegium will likely generate high-volume, celebratory RF media coverage, potentially signaling a sustained commitment to the current offensive structure. Expect continued, heavy ground attrition battles in the Pokrovsk direction, attempting to exploit any disruption caused by the air campaign.

MDCOA (Breakthrough toward Krasnoarmiysk): (MEDIUM Confidence) If the sustained KAB campaign near Myrnohrad successfully suppresses UAF deep fires and command nodes, RF forces could launch a concentrated armor assault toward Krasnoarmiysk/Pokrovsk. Success here would compromise the entire Eastern operational sector, forcing a major UAF readjustment.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The core gaps remain verification of RF physical capabilities following the air campaign escalation and confirmation of immediate RF ground intentions in the most active sectors.