Situation Report

Situation Update (13:35Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This report integrates multi-domain intelligence confirming RF escalation of the Aerial Attrition Campaign in the Northeast, concurrent with continued efforts to disrupt UAF logistics in the South. UAF forces report persistent, difficult fighting across multiple sectors.

Key updates since last sitrep

• KAB Strikes Confirmed (Kharkiv & Donetsk): UAF Air Force confirms new launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting Kharkiv Oblast from the North, and simultaneous launches against Donetsk Oblast (13:32Z, 13:20Z, HIGH). This validates the immediate threat predicted in the previous sitrep for the Kharkiv axis.
• Zaporizhzhia Civilian Casualties: The recent RF strike on Zaporizhzhia (previously confirmed) resulted in 26 civilian casualties and specifically targeted residential buildings and educational facilities using KABs (13:08Z, MEDIUM).
• UAV Threat Renewed (Odesa): UAF Air Force detected a UAV operating west of Velykodolynske, moving north into Odesa Oblast, indicating continued RF efforts to interdict Southern Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) (13:03Z, HIGH).
• Kupyansk Operational Success (UAF): Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS), 429th Separate Regiment "Achilles," report successful combat operations destroying enemy personnel and equipment in the Kupyansk direction (10:15Z, HIGH).
• UAF Resource Constraint Reported: A prominent UAF-aligned information source highlights that the tactical situation across multiple front sections is "very difficult" and that critical units lack necessary funding and resources (13:33Z, MEDIUM).
• Norway Military Aid: Norway committed an additional €267 million to fund the procurement of US weapons for UAF forces (13:16Z, HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

NORTHEAST AXIS (Kharkiv)

The threat posture has escalated significantly from UAV reconnaissance (12:38Z previous sitrep) to confirmed fixed-wing preparatory fires.

• A-A Strike Profile: KAB launches originating from the north are confirmed targeting Kharkiv Oblast (13:32Z). This synchronizes with expected RF pressure on the Kupyansk/Lyman axes and forces UAF resource allocation to critical rear area defense.
• Assessment: The RF intent is likely to suppress UAF logistics and command nodes in Kharkiv to inhibit force generation and resupply for the Eastern Axis.

EASTERN AXIS (Kupyansk, Donetsk)

• Kupyansk Sector: UAF SBS units maintain effective counter-fire capability, specifically utilizing drones to eliminate forward RF elements (10:15Z). RF ground attacks remain persistent, supported by sustained KAB fire (13:20Z).
• Central Donetsk: UAF forces continue to report extreme tactical difficulty (13:33Z) suggesting high-intensity, close-quarters combat continues, consistent with the long-war doctrine identified earlier.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa)

• Odesa/GLOCs: The new UAV detection near Velykodolynske (13:03Z) confirms that the RF logistics strangulation campaign on the southwestern corridor is active and ongoing, likely utilizing Shahed variants.
• Zaporizhzhia Ground: Pro-RF channels claim the capture of Herasymivka and localized UAF retreats near Huliaipole (13:03Z, 13:30Z). These are UNCONFIRMED and highly likely propaganda designed to inflate tactical success. However, they indicate sustained RF pressure on the Huliaipole salient.
• Dnipropetrovsk: UAF forces successfully interdicted and destroyed a structure containing RF occupying personnel in Novopidhorodne (13:25Z), demonstrating effective deep interdiction against RF forward positions in the sector adjacent to the confirmed Peschanoye bridgehead.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Multi-Axis Fire Fixation: RF forces are executing a synchronized KAB campaign targeting high-value areas in both Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. This simultaneous application of precision-guided munitions (PGMs) is designed to fix UAF operational reserves and degrade logistics capacity across a wide front, preventing UAF concentration against any single RF breakthrough effort (e.g., Kupyansk or Pokrovsk).

2. Deep Strike Targeting Confirmation: The confirmation that the previous Zaporizhzhia strike utilized KABs and struck civilian/educational facilities (13:08Z) demonstrates a clear disregard for international law and confirms the RF intent to utilize KABs as a precision terror weapon against strategic hubs.

3. Internal RF Logistics and Integrity: The seven-year conviction of the former RF MoD official for bribery (13:29Z) is a public signal by the Kremlin to address systemic corruption, likely in preparation for the sustained mobilization and long-war posture, though the immediate impact on frontline sustainment is negligible.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Counter-Intelligence Success: The SBU delivered a significant counter-intelligence success by securing a 15-year sentence for a collaborator in the Sumy region (13:08Z), maintaining security on the northern border axis.

2. Financial Support: The immediate commitment of €267M from Norway for US weapons procurement (13:16Z) provides a necessary infusion of financial aid to address the identified material shortages.

3. Readiness and Resources: The statement highlighting "very difficult" frontline conditions and the lack of funding for specific requests (13:33Z) necessitates prioritization of the newly confirmed Norwegian aid to the most heavily contested sectors (Kupyansk, Pokrovsk).

Information environment / disinformation

RF information operations are exploiting domestic Ukrainian political discourse. The use of an MP's criticism regarding Kyiv’s focus on Odesa (13:15Z) is designed to generate regional division and undermine confidence in the UAF High Command's resource management and strategic focus. Domestically, RF channels continue to focus on stability and normalcy (caviar supply, Moscow seasonal decorations) to reinforce the long-war narrative that the civilian rear area is insulated from the conflict.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Sustained KAB Saturation & Logistics Interdiction): (HIGH Confidence) RF will maintain the current tempo of KAB and UAV strikes, focusing primarily on fixing UAF forces and degrading logistics/infrastructure. Expect continued KAB strikes against Kharkiv Oblast (until 2100Z) to determine UAF Air Defense effectiveness and locate high-value targets. The UAV operation near Odesa will likely result in confirmed strikes on logistical infrastructure NLT 1900Z.

MDCOA (Ground Exploitation in Zaporizhzhia): (MEDIUM Confidence) If the KAB strikes near Huliaipole successfully suppress UAF defensive fires, RF forces (Vostok Group) may attempt to capitalize on the rumored low morale (13:30Z, UNCONFIRMED) by launching a localized armor assault from the Peschanoye bridgehead or reinforcing the alleged gains at Herasymivka to achieve a critical operational breakthrough, thereby forcing a wider UAF tactical readjustment.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The confirmed escalation of the air campaign necessitates immediate focus on target identification and RF weapon stockpiles.