Situation Report

Situation Update (13:05Z, 17 DEC 2025)

CONTEXT: The information environment remains dominated by the Russian Federation (RF) Ministry of Defense (MoD) Collegium statements, which strongly signal a commitment to a prolonged, multi-year conflict and strategic preparation for confrontation with NATO. Tactically, RF deep strike operations continue to stress UAF defenses and logistics, confirmed by strike impact in Zaporizhzhia and new UAV movement in Kharkiv.

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF Commitment to Long War (STRATEGIC INTENT): Key statements from the RF MoD Collegium, supported by internal analysis and official commentary (Belousov, Putin, Yusov assessment), confirm Moscow is preparing for a sustained military confrontation posture potentially extending to 2030, with no plans for demobilization (12:31:02, 12:33:25, 12:34:01, HIGH).
• Zaporizhzhia Attack Aftermath (TACTICAL): The Air Alarm clearance noted in the previous sitrep was confirmed to follow an enemy strike on the city of Zaporizhzhia. Local authorities are liquidating the consequences, and movement has been restored (12:18:36, 12:24:22, HIGH).
• Recruitment Surge Confirmed (ENEMY LOGISTICS): Aggressive, high-incentive recruitment advertising for MoD contract soldiers targeting the Moscow Region indicates a continued, high-priority requirement for personnel replacement, contradicting RF strategic claims of decisive battlefield victory (12:29:06, HIGH).
• New UAV Activity (KHARKIV): UAF Air Force detected UAVs (likely Shahed variants) operating in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a new axis for deep strike operations or reconnaissance activity since the previous reporting window (12:38:44, HIGH).
• UAF Leadership Change (DOMESTIC): Bohdan Kukura has been appointed the new head of Ukrnafta, a critical strategic company (12:41:42, HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

EASTERN AXIS (Kupyansk, Pokrovsk):

• Status Quo: High-intensity ground combat continues as per the previous sitrep. The renewed strategic focus on long-term confrontation (2030) suggests RF forces are prepared to sustain high attrition rates indefinitely to achieve objectives.
• Fire Support: RF artillery and KAB strike focus remains concentrated on the immediate frontline, but new UAV detection in Kharkiv (12:38Z) suggests preparatory fires or targeting assessment for the northern flank are ongoing.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Zaporizhzhia, Odesa):

• Zaporizhzhia City: The confirmation of the strike impact and subsequent traffic restoration (12:18Z, 12:24Z) means the immediate threat cycle is complete, but the risk of repeat strikes is HIGH, given the strategic importance of the city as a logistics and command hub.
• Logistics (Odesa/Dnipropetrovsk): No new reports of strikes on Odesa since the previous daily report; however, the standing threat of UAV saturation remains CRITICAL. The RF strategic rhetoric (Putin calling Europeans "piglets") further politicizes the conflict and removes incentives for restraint in targeting critical infrastructure (12:40:44).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Strategic Intent & Doctrine (CRITICAL SHIFT): The Collegium meeting effectively formalizes a long war doctrine. RF intent is no longer focused solely on immediate tactical gains in 2025, but on systemic, multi-year preparation for a protracted conflict against Ukraine and a strategic confrontation with NATO extending potentially to 2030 (12:34:01).

2. Personnel Sustainment (CONTRADICTORY): The urgent, high-incentive recruitment drive (Moscow Region focus) for contract soldiers (12:29:06) directly undermines the official MoD narrative that the UAF is collapsing (1.5 million casualties claimed). This suggests RF front-line troop rotation and replacement needs remain critical and unfulfilled by current mobilization cycles.

3. Deep Strike Activity: The detection of UAV activity in Kharkiv Oblast (12:38:44) indicates the RF is maintaining flexibility in its deep strike campaigns. This deployment could be:

• Pre-cursor for expanded KAB/Missile strikes in the region.
• Targeting UAF reserves or logistics supporting the Kupyansk sector.

4. Information Warfare: The use of highly derogatory language against European leaders ("piglets" - 12:19:05) and the framing of Ukraine's financial requirements (€137B needed) against the backdrop of EU economic crisis (12:45:13) are coordinated efforts to delegitimize Western support and signal RF resolve.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces successfully managed the immediate aftermath of the attack in Zaporizhzhia, ensuring the prompt restoration of critical municipal movement (12:24:22). Strategically, the appointment of new leadership for Ukrnafta (12:41:42) indicates efforts to maintain stability and operational effectiveness in critical state enterprises despite active conflict.

Information environment / disinformation

1. Narrative Consolidation: The dominant RF narrative is: 1) The West failed to collapse Russia; 2) Russia is preparing for long-term strategic competition; 3) Western support for Ukraine is financially unsustainable and morally corrupt ("golden toilets" reference - 12:22:26).

2. Counter-Narratives: UAF-aligned information (Yusov) confirms the strategic reading of the MoD Collegium, urging vigilance regarding RF preparation for war beyond Ukraine (12:34:01). Domestic Russian reporting from the Kursk border (12:48:58) provides a valuable, albeit isolated, data point on declining psychological resilience among RF border populations experiencing the reality of the war.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Sustained Attrition and Deep Strike Expansion): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces, validated by the long-war doctrine, will continue high-cost attrition attacks in the Kupyansk and Pokrovsk sectors. The UAV activity in Kharkiv Oblast (12:38Z) strongly suggests a shift in deep strike targeting concentration, likely to suppress UAF logistical support or C2 nodes in the North/Northeast to relieve pressure on the Kupyansk axis. Expect renewed UAV/KAB/Missile activity in Kharkiv Oblast NLT 1800Z.

MDCOA (Increased Conscription/Covert Mobilization): (MEDIUM Confidence) Given the urgent, high-incentive recruitment push (12:29Z) and the commitment to a multi-year conflict, the RF leadership may authorize covert or decentralized mobilization efforts in regions surrounding Moscow to quickly backfill losses incurred in the Eastern Axis, rather than relying solely on contract service recruitment. This would involve less public declaration than a general mobilization but yield substantial personnel.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The long-term strategic intent and the immediate tactical shift in Kharkiv necessitate adjustments to collection priorities.