Situation Report

Situation Update (12:05Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This report integrates recent tactical reports emphasizing persistent high-intensity combat on the Eastern Axis and the strategic impact of the RF deep strike campaign against critical energy infrastructure. The RF strategic narrative, established during the Ministry of Defense Collegium meeting, is actively being leveraged for psychological operations, exemplified by the premature and refuted claim of Kupyansk's capture.

Key updates since last sitrep

• Odesa Energy Infrastructure (CRITICAL IMPACT): The Odesa Oblast Military Administration (ОВА) has declared a state-level emergency (Надзвичайна ситуація державного рівня) following sustained RF attacks on energy infrastructure, citing over three days of localized power outages (11:47:34, 11:50:30, 11:58:26, HIGH). This confirms the success of the logistics interdiction campaign and places extreme pressure on regional logistics nodes.
• RF Claim of Kupyansk Capture (DISINFORMATION): RF Minister of Defence Belousov publicly claimed the "Zapad" Grouping has occupied Kupyansk. This claim was immediately refuted by internal Russian military channels and contradicts UAF defense reporting, assessing the claim as deliberate strategic disinformation (11:46:24, LOW).
• UAF Drone Success/Kupyansk Defense: Ukrainian "Khartiya" Corps and adjacent units claim to have neutralized an enemy breakthrough attempt north of Kupyansk, inflicting >1000 casualties using heavy bomber drones ("Vampires"). This activity directly addresses the RF Kupyansk objective (11:38:01, MEDIUM).
• Damage to Black Sea Fleet Submarines (UNCONFIRMED): UAF operational channels report visual evidence suggesting two Varshavyanka-class submarines were damaged in a dry dock, with one sitting deeper in the water, indicating hull breach or compromise (11:43:46, MEDIUM).
• UAV Incursions (SOUTHERN AXIS): New UAV waves (likely Shahed variants) have been detected targeting Odesa Oblast (from the Black Sea) and shifting course toward the western side of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (11:43:31, 11:47:03, HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

EASTERN AXIS (Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, Donetsk):

• Kupyansk Sector: RF offensive pressure remains CRITICAL. The UAF counter-action utilizing heavy drone assets (Khartiya Corps/81st Brigade elements) highlights that the RF intent to create a "security buffer zone" is being met with highly effective asymmetric resistance (11:38:01). Tactical control of Kupyansk remains contested by UAF forces despite Belousov's strategic claim (11:46:24).
• Pokrovsk / Novopavlivka Direction: Heavy RF mechanized assaults are ongoing. UAF successfully defeated an RF heavy equipment assault on the Novopavlivka axis and a motorized assault near Pokrovsk (11:45:12, 11:56:07). This confirms the RF Vostok Grouping continues to prioritize forcing a breakthrough in the Donetsk region before the onset of winter conditions severely restricts maneuver.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk):

• Odesa Logistics Strangulation (CRITICAL): The declaration of a state of emergency reflects the severe functional degradation resulting from the sustained deep strike campaign against energy supply and logistics support (11:47:34). RF UAV targeting is confirmed ongoing (11:43:31).
• Deep Battle: UAV traffic is now detected heading west in southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (11:47:03). This trajectory suggests potential targeting of logistics hubs or energy transmission infrastructure supplying the Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih grouping, complementing the operational pressure identified near Orikhiv in the previous sitrep.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Maneuver and Offensive Intent: RF forces are prioritizing the Kupyansk and Pokrovsk axes to achieve the defined geographic objectives. The rate of RF losses in Kupyansk (claim of >1000 personnel in one operation) suggests a continued commitment to high-cost, high-tempo infantry assaults (11:38:01). The threat of breakthrough remains HIGH on both axes.

2. Deep Strike Campaign: The declaration of a state emergency in Odesa confirms the strategic effectiveness of the RF energy and logistics interdiction campaign. This campaign reduces UAF C2 resilience and slows logistical throughput to the Eastern and Southern Operational Zones. (Dempster-Shafer belief supports the criticality of the Energy Infrastructure Attack.)

3. Naval Capability (Potential Loss): The potential damage to two Varshavyanka-class submarines (11:43:46) would represent a significant, though not crippling, loss for the Black Sea Fleet's conventional subsurface strike capacity. The visual evidence suggests UAF deep strike capability (likely missile or naval drone) remains effective against high-value naval assets even when sheltered in a dock environment.

4. Command and Control (C2) / Doctrine: RF Ministry of Defense is actively engaging in highly visible psychological operations, exemplified by the refuted Kupyansk claim (11:46:24) and the dissemination of inflated UAF loss statistics (>450k personnel in 2025, 11:41:58, 12:03:01). This indicates a deliberate strategy to reinforce the narrative of RF victory during the Collegium meeting.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Drone Dominance (Tactical): UAF units, particularly the specialized "Apachi" Strike Group (81st Brigade) and the Khartiya Corps, are achieving disproportionate tactical effects using FPV and heavy bomber UAVs, successfully countering mechanized assaults and infantry breakthroughs (11:38:01, 11:45:12, 11:56:07). This mitigates RF advantages in armor quantity.
• Resilience and Information Management: Despite the state-level emergency in Odesa, local authorities are rapidly reporting and managing the consequences of the deep strikes. Military C2 remains functional in coordinating defense against ground assaults on critical axes.

Information environment / disinformation

• Synchronized Strategic Disinformation: The RF MoD is using official platforms (Collegium meeting) to propagate demonstrably false tactical claims (Kupyansk capture) and inflated statistics (UAF losses). This aims to project overwhelming operational success to domestic and international audiences, likely to reduce internal dissent and coerce Western partners (11:46:24, 11:53:30, 12:03:01).
• NATO Narrative Reinforcement: Putin explicitly re-emphasized the demand for NATO non-expansion and falsely claimed the West initiated the war (12:04:56, 12:05:37). This rhetoric serves to justify continued aggression and escalate friction with NATO member states.
• Domestic Security Signaling (Moscow): Defense Minister Belousov publicly confirmed the "effectiveness" of Moscow's AD system (11:39:16), coinciding with reported traffic restrictions in the capital (11:46:32). This combination suggests internal anxieties regarding the continued potential for UAF long-range strikes.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Double-Axis Attrition and Southern Paralysis): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will maintain the high operational tempo focusing on the stated objectives (Kupyansk and the Kostiantynivka approaches). Ground combat intensity will remain high near Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. Simultaneously, RF will prioritize further deep strikes into Southern operational logistics, leveraging the declared state emergency in Odesa to press the advantage against vulnerable GLOCs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is designed to degrade UAF defensive capability through attrition and paralyze logistics.

MDCOA (Exploitation of Kupyansk Flank): (MEDIUM Confidence) Despite the confirmed UAF defense, the RF Zapad Grouping attempts a rapid flanking maneuver north of Kupyansk, attempting to bypass the heavily defended urban area and secure control of key high ground or road networks necessary to claim tactical encirclement. Success here would validate the Ministry of Defence's political claim (11:46:24) and force a major UAF repositioning in Kharkiv Oblast.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The RF disinformation regarding Kupyansk and the physical damage to BSF assets require immediate verification. The focus must be on confirming physical control measures and actual combat damage.