Situation Report

Situation Update (11:35Z, 17 DEC 2025)

This report integrates the high-level strategic pronouncements from the expanded Russian Ministry of Defense Collegium meeting, providing specific operational objectives and confirming the escalated threat level anticipated in the previous sitrep. The overall assessment is that the RF strategic offensive is now backed by explicitly stated geographic aims and an administrative commitment to sustained, high-tempo operations through 2026.

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF Strategic Objectives Defined (Eastern Axis): RF Minister of Defence Belousov explicitly named Kupyansk, Krasny Lyman, and Kostiantynivka as key operational objectives. The capture of Kupyansk is framed as necessary to expand the "buffer zone" in Kharkiv Oblast (11:10Z, TASS, HIGH). The stabilization of the Eastern Axis is now under direct, high-level threat.
• Threat Widens on Southern Axis (Orikhiv): The RF Dnipro Grouping is engaged in fighting on the approaches to Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) (11:14Z, TASS, MEDIUM). This shifts the pressure from solely the Herasymivka bridgehead to include a primary UAF defensive hub, indicating a widening operational front in the south.
• RF Commitment to Sustained Tempo (2026): Belousov stated that the key task for the next year is maintaining and increasing the current offensive tempo, and that NATO policy creates preconditions for continued hostilities in 2026 (11:16Z, 11:29Z, TASS, HIGH). This confirms RF planning anticipates a long-duration conflict.
• C2 Damage and Civilian Infrastructure Targeting: Belousov publicly claimed Russian forces have disabled >70% of Ukraine’s Thermal Power Plants (TETs) and >37% of Hydroelectric Power Plants (GES) (11:31Z, ASTRA, HIGH, Confidence in the claim). This confirms the strategic objective of crippling UAF economic and operational capacity via energy infrastructure.
• Immediate Response to Zaporizhzhia Strike: The UAF Patrol Police released bodycam footage and issued temporary transport restrictions following a recent strike on a residential area in Zaporizhzhia (11:07Z, 11:07Z, ЗОВА/Патрульна поліція, HIGH). This confirms recent, successful hostile fire activity against C2/infrastructure nodes proximal to civilian areas.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia):

• Orikhiv Sector (New Focus): RF "Dnipro" Grouping is fighting on the approaches to Orikhiv (11:14Z). This suggests the RF is either conducting a major fixing operation or attempting a coordinated push from the south/southeast to exploit UAF preoccupation with the confirmed Herasymivka bridgehead (Vostok Group). Orikhiv is a critical node on the primary UAF defense line protecting Zaporizhzhia City.
• Vostok Group Gains (Claimed): RF claims the Vostok Group (the group operating at Herasymivka) has taken >400 sq. km and 24 settlements since 1 November (11:13Z). This is likely an exaggeration but reinforces the Vostok Group's role as the primary mechanized spearhead.
• Deep Battle: Localized UAF police action and traffic restrictions in Zaporizhzhia City (11:07Z) confirm recent, successful RF deep strikes, likely utilizing the expanded KAB or missile strikes reported previously.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk/Lyman/Kupyansk):

• Defined RF Objectives (CRITICAL UPDATE): The RF has clearly articulated its immediate strategic goals on the Eastern Axis:
  1. Kupyansk: Liberation will expand the "security buffer zone" (11:10Z). This links the Northern and Eastern sectors operationally.
  2. Krasny Lyman: Liberation will open the path for blocking Sloviansk (11:10Z).
  3. Kostiantynivka: Capture will be the key to the final defense concentration—the Druzhkovsko-Kramatorsko-Sloviansk agglomeration (11:11Z).
• Dimytrov (DNR) Blockade (Claimed): Belousov claimed UAF forces are "reliably blocked" in the city of Dimytrov (11:12Z). This is UNCONFIRMED (LOW Confidence) and requires immediate GEOINT/HUMINT to assess the threat to UAF C2 integrity in this sector.

NORTHERN AXIS (Kharkiv/Sumy):

• The previous assessment regarding the RF intent to create a "security buffer zone" is explicitly linked to reducing the threat of cross-border UAF strikes (11:09Z). The announced intent to capture Kupyansk (11:10Z) is the clearest evidence yet of the geographic extent of this Northern offensive mandate.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Strategic Intent & Doctrine (Confirmed Offensive): The combined rhetoric from Putin and Belousov confirms the strategic offensive is underway with defined operational phases: (1) Securing the Northern buffer zone (Kupyansk). (2) Breaking the Donbas defense line (Lyman, Kostiantynivka). (3) Exploiting the Southern flank (Herasymivka bridgehead, Orikhiv approaches). The threat level is CRITICAL due to the confirmed resource commitment (410k new contract service personnel, 5 divisions formed, 11:32Z, 11:18Z).

2. UAV and Technology Focus: RF claims a 2x superiority in drones and is reacting to the rising intensity of UAF drone attacks (3,700/month) by deploying new counter-UAV technology, specifically an FPV-interceptor segment of AD (11:24Z, 11:34Z). This confirms RF is rapidly adapting its electronic and aerial defenses in response to UAF success in deep strikes.

3. Strategic Signaling (Nuclear/AD): The announcement of the S-500 air defense system (near-space capable) entering combat duty (11:30Z) and the re-emphasis on strategic nuclear forces (11:28Z) serves as a high-impact deterrent signal to NATO, timed specifically with the Collegium meeting. While not an immediate tactical threat, it reinforces the RF's escalatory dominance strategy.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Operational Resilience: UAF units continue effective operation despite persistent deep strikes. The rapid response and documentation by the Patrol Police in Zaporizhzhia (11:07Z) demonstrate local C2 and emergency services remain functional and are countering the intended psychological effects of the strikes.
• Defense Preparation: The temporary traffic restriction in Zaporizhzhia (11:07Z) suggests UAF military and civilian authorities are actively managing logistical flow and security constraints resulting from RF deep strikes.

Information environment / disinformation

• Coherent Strategic Narrative: The RF Collegium meeting established a clear, synchronized narrative: The West is prolonging the war (2026 forecast), RF has the strategic initiative, tempo is increasing, and Ukrainian defeat is "inevitable" (11:07Z, 11:09Z).
• Explicit Threat (Negotiation Posture): Putin's repeated threat to continue military seizure of "historic lands" if Kyiv refuses "substantive dialogue" (11:05Z, 11:07Z) is a coercive information operation aimed at creating pressure on Kyiv and Western partners to concede territorial losses before further RF operational successes materialize.
• Infrastructure Destruction Propaganda: The public announcement of high percentages of damaged TETs and GES (11:31Z) is intended to project overwhelming power and undermine UAF morale and national resilience during the winter period.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Synchronized Fixing and Exploitation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces, bolstered by the strategic mandate from the Collegium, will synchronize offensive pressure across multiple fronts:

1. Southern Axis: Increased probing and heavy fire operations targeting Orikhiv to fix UAF 47th Brigade assets, while logistical efforts accelerate armor insertion across the Gaychur River bridgehead near Herasymivka.
2. Eastern Axis: Increased intensity of ground assaults targeting the tactical objectives (Lyman approaches, Kostiantynivka outskirts) under expanded KAB and indirect fire support, prioritizing unit attrited near these key urban centers.

MDCOA (Operational Thrust on Zaporizhzhia Flank): (MEDIUM Confidence) The Dnipro Grouping launches a mechanized thrust, potentially supported by limited heavy armor from the Vostok Group (if bridgeheads are secured), aiming to bypass Orikhiv defenses and push towards the Malyi Tokmachka axis, seeking to sever the rear area supply routes to the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk grouping. This would immediately trigger a full commitment of UAF reserves.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The explicit naming of operational objectives (Kupyansk, Lyman, Orikhiv) allows for highly focused collection efforts. The critical gap is confirming RF commitment of heavy maneuver forces to these new/widened axes.