Situation Report

Situation Update (10:05Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Southern Flank Breach Confirmed: Multiple Russian sources (TASS, military bloggers) claim confirmation of RF control over Herasymivka, advancing up to 2 km along the front and 1 km in depth on the western bank of the Gaychur River (09:39Z, TASS/Два майора, MEDIUM Confidence). This confirms the tactical exploitation of the Peschanoye bridgehead, escalating the threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• KAB Saturation in Zaporizhzhia: UAF Air Force confirms new launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with confirmed strikes on Zaporizhzhia city hitting a residential building and infrastructure facilities (09:38Z, 09:47Z, 09:55Z, AF UAF/Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH Confidence).
• Kupiansk Stabilization: Commander-in-Chief General Syrskyi reports UAF forces successfully repelled RF elements from Kupiansk, regaining control of approximately 90% of the city’s territory (09:39Z, OS ZSU, HIGH Confidence).
• High-Value Target Destruction (Kherson): UAF forces destroyed a Russian 2S6 Tunguska anti-aircraft system in Kherson Oblast (09:52Z, South Def. Forces, HIGH Confidence), signaling effective localized counter-AD operations.
• RF Force Posture Assessment: General Syrskyi assesses the total enemy grouping dedicated to strategic offensive operations at approximately 710,000 personnel (09:41Z, OS ZSU, HIGH Confidence), validating the long-term threat of large-scale maneuver warfare.

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia):

• Herasymivka Bridgehead (CRITICAL): The concentration of RF claims regarding the capture and expansion of the bridgehead at Herasymivka reinforces the analytical judgment that the RF Vostok Group is executing the MLCOA (Bridgehead Consolidation). The penetration depth (1 km confirmed by RF sources) suggests the immediate deployment of light infantry and logistics assets is ongoing, aiming to secure the position for subsequent heavy armor insertion (PIR 1).
• Fire Support Intensification: The extensive use of KABs specifically targeting Zaporizhzhia city and its infrastructure facilities (09:47Z, 09:55Z) serves two key purposes: 1) Disrupting rear-area logistics and C2 in the face of the bridgehead expansion, and 2) Imposing psychological pressure on major population centers.
• Deep Strike Maneuver: Confirmed strike UAV activity transiting Zaporizhzhia toward Nikopol (09:53Z) indicates RF intent to stress air defenses and interdict critical infrastructure deeper inside Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supporting the Southern Flank operation indirectly.

EASTERN AXIS (Kharkiv/Luhansk/Donetsk):

• Kupiansk Sector: UAF command reports regaining nearly 90% control of Kupiansk (09:39Z). This is a significant localized counter-success, securing a crucial rail and logistics hub in the Kharkiv direction and neutralizing the immediate risk of breakthrough on the Northern Axis.
• Sviatohirsk: Pressure previously reported (09:10Z, prior Sitrep) remains relevant, though no new confirmed information regarding UAF withdrawals near Yarova has been received (PIR 37).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Enemy Capability: Operational Exploitation: The confirmation of gains west of the Gaychur River validates the enemy's capability to execute river crossings under sustained pressure. The current operational priority for RF is securing the Herasymivka foothold, likely followed by immediate engineering reconnaissance for a heavy vehicle crossing (MLCOA). Failure to contain this breach will necessitate a major UAF re-allocation of reserves.

2. Enemy Intent: Strategic Momentum: Syrskyi's assessment of the 710,000-strong grouping reinforces the long-term enemy intention to conduct a Strategic Offensive Operation (SOO). This provides a critical baseline for UAF force planning and resource prioritization, emphasizing the need for robust defense contact group support (Ramstein, 09:36Z).

3. Deep Strike Targeting Priority: RF claims of targeting UAF GUR USV assembly centers and long-range UAV production facilities (09:37Z) highlight a clear priority to degrade UAF asymmetrical capabilities (maritime and deep strike drones). This aligns with the overall logistics strangulation campaign targeting UAF industrial capacity.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• C2 and Coordination: General Syrskyi's participation in the 32nd Ramstein Contact Group (09:36Z) confirms continued high-level engagement to maintain materiel flow and strategic alignment with allies.
• Tactical Counter-Capability: The joint destruction of the 2S6 Tunguska (09:52Z) illustrates effective multi-domain integration, specifically the successful employment of FPV drones against mobile, high-value air defense assets. This tactic must be sustained to degrade the RF air cover supporting KAB operations.
• Resource Planning: Public articulation of the €137 billion funding requirement for 2026-2027 by European officials (09:38Z) provides transparency and sets expectations for long-term coalition military and economic support.

Information environment / disinformation

RF sources immediately amplify any tactical success (Herasymivka) to project overwhelming momentum, directly contrasting with UAF reports of successful stabilization (Kupiansk). The information space remains contested, with RF focusing on Blame-Shifting (framing Western troop demands as perpetuating war, previous sitrep) and Internal Security Projection (Rostov prison riot, Sochi detentions, 09:36Z, 09:45Z), diverting attention from the operational front.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Bridgehead Consolidation & Suppression): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will dedicate resources to stabilizing the captured ground at Herasymivka, establishing anti-drone/air defense coverage, and preparing the ground for heavy equipment ingress. Expect continued KAB and Shahed utilization across Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts to prevent UAF counter-attacks and interdict movement of UAF operational reserves.

MDCOA (Immediate Heavy Armor Push): (MEDIUM Confidence) If RF can exploit localized disorganization resulting from the KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia, the Vostok Group may attempt to rapidly deploy pontoon assets (PIR 1) and push a limited number of MBTs and IFVs across the Gaychur River within the next 12 hours. This move would force immediate, high-cost UAF counter-action or risk the operational envelopment of forces further east.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The immediate operational risk remains centered on the integrity of the Southern Flank defense line.