Situation Report

Situation Update (09:35Z, 17 DEC 2025)

ANALYST NOTE: The primary kinetic threat has focused on two areas: the immediate exploitation of the established river crossing on the Southern flank, where Russia claims tactical success; and heightened pressure in the Eastern Axis around Sviatohirsk, forcing UAF rear-area civilian evacuation orders. UAF resilience in restoring critical infrastructure in Odesa is a notable operational success, mitigating the strategic impact of recent RF logistics interdiction campaigns.

Key updates since last sitrep

• Southern Flank Breach Expansion (CRITICAL): Russian MoD claims its Vostok Group liberated Herasymivka (Dnipropetrovsk region), advancing into the depth of UAF defenses (09:22Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM-LOW Confidence pending UAF denial/confirmation). This village is critical to the consolidation and expansion of the Peschanoye bridgehead across the Gaychur River (PIR 33).
• Sviatohirsk Pressure: RF sources claim UAF has ordered evacuations in Sviatohirsk and nearby villages near Sloviansk following RF advances near the Yarova railway station (09:10Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM). This indicates severe tactical pressure on UAF forces defending the Siversk-Sloviansk approach.
• KAB Strikes Continue (Donetsk): Multiple Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) were launched targeting infrastructure and positions within Donetsk Oblast (09:06Z, AF UAF, HIGH).
• Odesa Infrastructure Recovery: Odesa Oblast authorities confirm all critical infrastructure is fully energized, and power has been restored to 583,700 households over the last four days, mitigating the recent deep strike campaign effectiveness (09:27Z, OS ZSU, HIGH).
• UAF-Sweden Defense Meeting: Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov met with Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson to discuss bilateral defense cooperation (09:28Z, RBK-Ukraina, HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia):

• Herasymivka / Peschanoye Bridgehead (PIR 33): RF claims control of Herasymivka (09:13Z), west of the confirmed Gaychur River crossing (Peschanoye). If verified, this represents a successful, albeit shallow, tactical exploitation of the river breach, deepening the threat to UAF forces along the Zaporizhzhia contact line. The focus now shifts to whether RF can bring heavy armor into the bridgehead (P1 in previous Daily Report). Status: Fluid / Highly Contested (UNCONFIRMED RF Control).
• Deep Battle: RF MoD claims successful strikes against a UAF Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) assembly and testing center, alongside energy and transport infrastructure (09:16Z), aligning with the broader strategy of logistics interdiction and infrastructure degradation.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk/Lyman/Sloviansk):

• Sviatohirsk / Yarova: RF pressure north of Sloviansk is forcing UAF authorities to announce mandatory evacuations in settlements near Sviatohirsk (09:10Z). This suggests the RF push, likely originating from the Siversk or Lyman axes, is achieving localized breakthroughs, threatening key logistics nodes near Yarova rail station and potentially setting conditions for a direct threat to Sloviansk from the north.
• Aerial Activity: Confirmed KAB launches against Donetsk Oblast continue the preparatory fire and saturation bombing campaign (09:06Z).
• Tactical Engagements: UAF demonstrated effective localized counter-infiltration tactics by remotely destroying accumulated RF infantry inside a staging building (09:29Z).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Threat of Operational Exploitation (CRITICAL): The claim of capturing Herasymivka indicates that the RF Vostok Group is transitioning from establishing a river crossing to exploiting the ground advantage. The immediate threat is that RF forces will attempt to secure this forward position using light infantry and logistics drones before heavier engineering assets arrive, potentially enabling a pivot maneuver.

2. Deep Fires and Infrastructure Degradation: RF continues synchronized deep strikes targeting rear-area support and logistics nodes, including claimed strikes on USV assembly centers. This campaign maintains pressure on UAF industrial capacity and reinforces the RVSN's newly integrated drone capability.

3. Information and Influence Operations (IO): RF narratives are focused on projecting inevitable success and prolonging conflict:

• Exaggerated Success: Tactical advances (Herasymivka, Yarova) are immediately amplified and linked to strategic, religious goals (e.g., "liberation of Sviatohirsk Lavra") (09:18Z).
• Blame Shifting: Kremlin spokespersons are explicitly stating that Western insistence on post-war troop deployment in Ukraine will cause the war "to simply not cease," framing the West as the impediment to peace (09:27Z).
• Internal Security Projection: FSB's repetitive claims of foiled terror plots by Central Asian migrants in Rostov (09:06Z) serve to justify domestic security measures and distract from the operational theater.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Logistical Resilience (Odesa): The successful rapid restoration of power to critical infrastructure in Odesa Oblast (09:27Z) demonstrates high effectiveness in UAF damage control and repair capacity, mitigating the intended psychological and operational impacts of RF deep strikes aimed at GLOCs.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Umerov's visit to Sweden (09:28Z) confirms active efforts to secure and sustain high-end defense cooperation, crucial for maintaining long-term defensive capability.
• POW Management: The Coordination Headquarters issued guidance on identifying masked POWs (09:34Z), a measure aimed at maintaining family morale and administrative clarity regarding captured personnel.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is dominated by geopolitical maneuverings designed to shape Western resolve. The proposed US sanctions linked to Russian rejection of a peace deal (09:06Z, 09:18Z) provides UAF allies with a source of leverage, while the Kremlin's counter-narrative (war prolongation due to Western troop demands) is aimed at domestic audiences and isolationist Western political factions (09:27Z). Serbian President Vučić's statement on prioritizing national interests (09:20Z) is utilized by Russian state media to amplify anti-EU/anti-NATO sentiment in the Balkans.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Bridgehead Consolidation & Sviatohirsk Push): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will prioritize consolidating control over Herasymivka and immediately attempt to reinforce the newly advanced positions west of the Gaychur River with light armored vehicles and supplies, utilizing logistics drones (Hexacopters) where heavy bridges are absent. Simultaneously, RF ground forces will increase kinetic pressure on the Sviatohirsk-Yarova rail corridor to force a tactical withdrawal, securing the northern flank of the Donetsk salient.

MDCOA (Armor Insertion into Dnipropetrovsk): (MEDIUM Probability) If UAF defenses at Herasymivka fail to hold or if RF can quickly deploy pontoon bridges under cover of expanded KAB strikes (confirmed in the region), heavy armor (Tanks/IFVs) could enter the bridgehead. This would constitute a major operational threat, potentially forcing UAF Command to re-allocate reserves from other threatened sectors (e.g., Pokrovsk) to prevent a deep penetration toward the Dnipro River.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The status of the Southern Flank remains critically ambiguous. Immediate confirmation regarding Herasymivka is paramount.