Situation Report

Situation Update (08:35Z, 17 DEC 2025)

ANALYST NOTE: RF forces have formalized the kinetic strangulation of Odesa GLOCs while simultaneously broadening the KAB strike profile across the entire Eastern and Northern axes (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk). The strategic focus remains maximizing UAF AD depletion and preventing reserve deployment. Claims of localized tactical RF success near the crucial Dnipro rear flank (Gerasymivka) require immediate verification (PIR 33).

Key updates since last sitrep

• KAB Launches Expand North: RF forces launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts from the East, confirming the widening RF glide bomb pressure across the Northern and Eastern axes (08:08Z, 08:13Z, AF UAF, HIGH).
• Odesa Kinetic Pressure Maintained: A persistent wave of UAVs is confirmed approaching the Odesa coastline (Zatoka to Chornomorsk) and specifically targeting the Ovidopol/Dalnyk access points, sustaining the high-tempo kinetic campaign against GLOCs (08:12Z, 08:18Z, AF UAF/Vanek, HIGH).
• UAF Deep Strike BDA Confirmed: GS ZSU validated successful deep strikes against the RF VPK and oil refining sector, specifically confirming the hit on the Slavyansky Refinery in Krasnodar Krai (08:21Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH).
• RF Claim: Gerasymivka Capture (UNCONFIRMED): RF Vostok Group claimed tactical control over the settlement Gerasymivka (08:15Z, Voin DV, LOW). This position is critical if related to the previously assessed Gaychur River bridgehead threat (PIR 1) and requires immediate GEOINT and UAF confirmation (PIR 33).
• Strategic IO Amplified: RF state media (TASS) repeated the high-impact claim that the US/EU finalized a security guarantee plan for Ukraine (08:17Z, TASS, HIGH - as a confirmed IO message), reinforcing the strategic narrative of a forced ceasefire (PIR 31).

Operational picture (by sector)

SOUTHERN AXIS (Odesa/Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia):

• Odesa Corridor (CRITICAL): The multi-domain kinetic threat is now constant. UAVs are tracked hitting land from the Black Sea across the critical logistics nodes between Zatoka and Chornomorsk. This requires the continuous expenditure of UAF AD assets to protect coastal GLOCs.
• Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro Flank: RF kinetic activity continues to target civilian infrastructure, resulting in casualties in the Zaporizhzhia district (Zaporizhzhia Admin, 08:26Z). UAVs are also approaching the region from the South (AF UAF, 08:29Z). The RF claim of Gerasymivka capture, situated on the Southern Flank, must be treated as a potential indicator of RF bridgehead expansion (PIR 33). UAF Southern Defense Forces report significant enemy losses, suggesting successful attrition of RF assault units (Def Forces South, 08:16Z).

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk - Pokrovsk/Lyman/Kharkiv/Sumy):

• Donetsk: Positional fighting continues around the Pokrovsk salient, specifically near Krasnoarmiisk, where RF sources claim incremental gains (RF Source, 08:14Z). KAB launches targeting Donetsk Oblast (AF UAF, 08:08Z) provide persistent standoff preparatory fires.
• Northern Shoulder (Kharkiv/Sumy): RF air operations have expanded the use of KABs into the Kharkiv and Sumy operational zones (AF UAF, 08:08Z, 08:13Z). This represents a geographical expansion of the high-precision standoff threat, complicating UAF air defense allocation and forcing reserves to cover a wider threatened area.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Multi-Axis KAB/UAV Synchronization (CRITICAL): The enemy is now applying continuous KAB pressure against Northern and Eastern fixed positions (Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk) simultaneously with UAV saturation on Southern GLOCs (Odesa). This campaign is strategically designed to achieve AD exhaustion and maintain operational tempo without immediate commitment of large RF ground reserves.

2. Maneuver Intent on Southern Flank: The RF focus on claiming control over Gerasymivka suggests an immediate intent to secure or expand a forward operating base utilizing the Peschanoye bridgehead, likely in preparation for future heavy armor insertion (PIR 1). This area remains the most dangerous immediate breakthrough potential.

3. Logistics and Sustainment: UAF "Deep Strike" operations successfully targeted the Slavyansky Refinery (08:21Z), continuing the focused degradation of RF energy logistics. RF intent to sustain forces is evidenced by high operational tempo despite reported high attrition rates (400 personnel, 100+ units of equipment lost over 24h in the Southern AO, 08:16Z).

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF command is successfully executing counter-logistics and counter-VPK strikes deep into RF territory, as confirmed by BDA of the Slavyansky Refinery strike (GS ZSU, 08:21Z). Defensive operations across the South are inflicting severe personnel and equipment losses on RF attacking units, including high-value assets (Buk-M3, Grad). The primary challenge for UAF remains the efficient allocation of highly valued AD assets to counter the simultaneous KAB expansion in the North/East and the UAV saturation in the South.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment (IE) is intensely focused on strategic disruption:

1. Ceasefire and Guarantee Disinformation (PIR 31): The amplification of the NYT-cited security guarantee plan by TASS (08:17Z) is a deliberate information operation targeting UAF resilience and Western cohesion, aiming to suggest that negotiations are proceeding without full UAF consent.
2. Domestic Stability Management: RF IO attempted to leverage the Day of the RVSN to project strength, yet this was quickly countered by domestic reporting detailing severe housing crises and protest threats from military wives (08:33Z), suggesting underlying morale and logistical deficiencies in RF rear areas.
3. Propaganda of Success: RF channels utilize highly localized claims, such as the Gerasymivka capture, to project inevitable tactical victory in key sectors.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate outlook is dominated by managing the strategic air threat and verifying the stability of the Southern Flank.

MLCOA (Kinetic Strangulation and Fixed Pressure): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will utilize the newly expanded KAB zones (Sumy/Kharkiv) to fix UAF attention and reserves in the North, while simultaneously intensifying UAV strikes against Odesa GLOCs to achieve quantifiable logistics disruption (PIR 17). Ground forces will consolidate claimed positions (Gerasymivka) and maintain high-intensity attrition assaults against the Pokrovsk salient.

MDCOA (Southern Flank Breakthrough): (MEDIUM Probability) RF Vostok Group attempts to immediately exploit the claimed Gerasymivka position (PIR 33) by inserting heavy armor or highly mobile mechanized infantry to penetrate the UAF rear area between Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, forcing a critical operational decision point for UAF reserves.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The status of the Southern Flank and the strategic information narrative remain the most critical collection requirements.