Situation Report

Situation Update (06:15Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Widespread RF Deep Strikes Confirmed: RF forces conducted coordinated kinetic strikes overnight across six oblasts (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Odesa, Kramatorsk, Dnipropetrovsk), targeting claimed energy infrastructure, ammunition depots (BK), and Temporary Deployment Points (TDPs). (05:48Z, Podduchny, HIGH)
• UAF Deep Strike Success: UAF UAVs successfully struck infrastructure in Slavyansky District, Kuban (RF), resulting in a confirmed power outage affecting approximately 13,000 personnel. (05:55Z, ASTRA, HIGH)
• Sviatohirsk Evacuation Initiated: Ukrainian authorities have reportedly initiated mandatory evacuation of families and children from Sviatohirsk and surrounding settlements in Donetsk Oblast, indicating localized tactical pressure or preparation for increased fire exchange in the area. (05:53Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM)
• US Pressure on EU Assets (STRATEGIC RISK): Reports indicate significant pressure from the Trump Administration on EU member states to halt plans using €210 billion of frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian financing. This presents a critical long-term financial vulnerability for UAF sustainment. (05:56Z, TASS; 06:00Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH)
• Confirmed Allied Aid: Ukrainian Minister of Defence confirmed commitments for financial and military aid from 15 allied nations. (05:50Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, HIGH)

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture remains dominated by the RF attrition campaign, which has been synchronized across strategic depth overnight, directly supporting the anticipated ground maneuver on the Southern Axis.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk/Odesa): The strategic rear areas remain the primary kinetic focus. The confirmation of strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (05:48Z) sustains the threat profile identified previously against Nikopol/Marhanets (PIR 17). Odesa also remains targeted, confirming the continuation of the logistics strangulation strategy against Southern GLOCs. The lack of new reporting on the Peschanoye bridgehead suggests RF forces are consolidating positions and continuing fire preparation, delaying the heavy armor insertion (PIR 1).

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk - Kramatorsk/Sviatohirsk): RF preparatory strikes hit Kramatorsk (05:48Z), the strategic C2 and logistics hub for the sector. The mandatory evacuation from Sviatohirsk (05:53Z) suggests RF forces are making tactical gains or preparing for a localized offensive thrust in the northern Donetsk region. This complements the existing fixing operations in the Pokrovsk and Vremyevskoe directions.

NORTHERN AXIS (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy): The inclusion of Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy in the confirmed strike list indicates RF intent to maintain broad strategic pressure and compel UAF to disperse Air Defense assets theater-wide, reducing density over key southern sectors. The strikes likely targeted C2 or energy infrastructure supporting these regions.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Enemy Capabilities and Intentions (Strategic Attrition Phase): RF intent is HIGHLY likely to be focused on achieving decisive effect through the systematic degradation of UAF energy resilience and logistical capacity before committing ground forces at Peschanoye.

• Multi-Domain Targeting: The overnight attacks covered deep rear areas, confirming RF capability to conduct widespread, simultaneous precision or swarm strikes far outside the immediate contact line. This maximizes psychological and material attrition.
• Sviatohirsk Maneuver: The local threat near Sviatohirsk should be assessed as a fixing operation designed to draw UAF reserves away from the more critical axis toward Chasiv Yar or the Southern Flank.

2. Logistics and Sustainment: RF claims targeted successful hits on "BK (ammunition) depots," which, if confirmed, would severely impact UAF operational tempo in the sectors affected by the strikes (Kramatorsk, Dnipropetrovsk).

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Deep Strike Maintenance: UAF maintains a persistent ability to conduct deep strikes, demonstrated by the confirmed power outage in the RF Kuban region. This forces RF to commit AD assets to internal defense, easing pressure elsewhere.
• Resource Confirmation: The confirmed commitment of 15 allied nations (05:50Z) provides a necessary counter-narrative to RF claims of Western fatigue, though the immediate strategic risk from US policy shifts regarding frozen assets must be mitigated.
• Defensive Posture: UAF command is executing necessary measures (evacuation) in response to localized pressure in Donetsk, prioritizing civilian safety and preparing for potential tactical withdrawals or defensive standpoints.

Information environment / disinformation

1. Critical Geopolitical Vulnerability (HIGH Confidence): The simultaneous reporting across various channels regarding the US pressure on the EU to abandon the use of frozen Russian assets (€210 billion) is the most significant development in the information environment. This represents a potential strategic rupture in the unified financial sanctions front and threatens a major source of long-term UAF financing. DS Analysis supports the hypothesis of disagreement on asset utilization between US influence (Trump) and the EU.

2. Psychological Operations (RF): Pro-RF sources are amplifying the Sviatohirsk evacuation to suggest UAF military failures and instability in key Donetsk positions ("nothing was threatened," 05:53Z), attempting to undermine local morale and confidence in UAF leadership.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The primary operational focus for the next six to twelve hours (until 1200Z) will be the assessment of damage from the overnight strikes and potential follow-up enemy fire missions targeting identified vulnerable infrastructure.

MLCOA (Assessment and Secondary Attrition): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will dedicate the next period to Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the overnight strikes, especially in Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa, to determine if the kinetic suppression was sufficient to support the main effort. Expect follow-up missile/UAV launches targeting non-essential repairs or newly identified C2/logistics nodes. Fixing operations in Vremyevskoe and the northern Donetsk area (Sviatohirsk) will continue to consume UAF tactical attention.

MDCOA (Strategic Financial Erosion): (HIGH Impact, MEDIUM Probability) The geopolitical conflict regarding frozen assets escalates immediately. If the US pressure forces key EU nations (Germany, France) to publicly waver on the asset expropriation plan, the strategic outlook for UAF financing shifts dramatically negatively. This political success for the Kremlin could have greater long-term impact than a tactical breach on the front line.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The immediate requirement is to quantify the effectiveness of the widespread RF deep strikes and verify the specific nature of the tactical threat necessitating the Sviatohirsk evacuation.