Situation Report

Situation Update (05:05Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Ground Maneuver Hold (Peschanoye): The critical 05:00Z window for the RF heavy armor push across the Gaychur River has elapsed with NO CONFIRMATION of crossing or bridging equipment deployment (PIR 1 remains UNMET). This strongly reinforces the analytic judgment that the immediate operational timeline has slipped, shifting the likely MLCOA to sustained fire preparation. (05:05Z, Analyst Judgment, HIGH)
• High-Intensity Engagement Confirmed (Pokrovsk Sector): RF milblogger sources confirm active, heavy fighting for tactical villages, specifically Rodynske and Volodymyrivka. This confirms RF intent to maintain persistent pressure along the T0504 axis, preventing UAF forces from reallocating reserves southward. (05:00Z, Рыбарь, MEDIUM)
• RF Domestic Information Focus: RF state-adjacent media is actively promoting narratives focusing on domestic social control (proposal to ban social media for minors), indicating a continued priority on managing internal psychological stability. (04:46Z, Новости Москвы, HIGH)
• Environmental Reporting: TASS reported that the Sea of Marmara has receded 20m from the shore. This information is non-kinetic and external to the conflict area but confirms RF media monitoring of regional geopolitical events. (04:43Z, ТАСС, HIGH)

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture is defined by a critical decision-making delay on the Southern Axis, juxtaposed with persistent engagement on the Eastern Axis. The lack of heavy armor commitment at Peschanoye forces a reassessment of the timing, but not the intent, of the decisive RF maneuver.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Peschanoye/Gaychur River): The failure of the RF Vostok Group to initiate the heavy armor crossing by the assessed critical timeline (05:00Z) confirms a tactical delay. RF forces are likely staged but are waiting for optimal fire support conditions (KAB saturation, 260th GRAU pre-positioning) or awaiting confirmation of UAF reserve deployment patterns. The existing bridgehead remains viable, and the threat remains CRITICAL.

EASTERN AXIS (Pokrovsk Direction): Operations around Rodynske and Volodymyrivka are serving as a critical fixing mechanism. Continued engagement here ties down UAF maneuver elements and demonstrates RF capability to prosecute simultaneous operations across primary axes. Success in these villages would expand the immediate threat to the Pokrovsk logistical hub.

DEEP BATTLE: RF deep strike campaign against UAF C2/ISR nodes (Chernihiv claim) remains the focus of the RF counter-hybrid effort, requiring UAF forces to maintain dispersed C2 structures.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Enemy Intentions (Shifting Timing): The operational pause at Peschanoye suggests a deliberate shift from a rapid, high-risk maneuver to a doctrinal, fire-support-led exploitation plan. RF intent remains focused on achieving a breakthrough on the Southern flank, but the execution timeline has shifted to maximize preparatory effects. The immediate threat is now fire attrition, followed by a ground assault likely timed for the next period of reduced visibility.

2. Logistics and Sustainment: The sustained operational pause may indicate logistical constraints or delays in bringing heavy bridging equipment or the full complement of the 260th GRAU long-range artillery into range. RF continues to utilize information operations (propaganda, domestic news focus) to mask potential operational shortcomings.

3. Center of Gravity (COG) Targeting: RF activity in the Pokrovsk sector confirms this axis remains a secondary, but high-priority, COG. Fixing UAF forces here ensures RF retains initiative and prevents UAF flexibility to reinforce the threatened Southern Axis.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF defensive preparations at Peschanoye successfully deterred the immediate RF armored push. This provides a temporary window for UAF forces to refine counter-mobility efforts and adjust reserve positioning based on the revised RF timeline. UAF elements in the Pokrovsk sector are successfully absorbing the pressure around Rodynske/Volodymyrivka, preventing a local tactical collapse.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment (IE) analysis suggests RF is increasingly focused on shaping the domestic narrative to ensure long-term stability and mobilization acceptance.

1. Normalization of Conflict: Pro-RF media channels are interspersing military content with domestic policy proposals (social media ban), attempting to normalize the war effort while projecting an image of strong domestic governance.
2. Moralization: The use of explicitly religious and special forces branding (05:01Z) links military effort to national identity and moral imperative, serving as a direct psychological boost for deployed forces and home front supporters.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The primary threat for the next 6-12 hours is Air/Artillery Attrition, not ground maneuver.

MLCOA (Sustained Attrition Campaign & Positional Fixation): (HIGH Confidence) RF will dedicate the daylight hours (0600Z - 1800Z) to high-volume preparatory fires. This involves expanded KAB strikes deep into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts and the maximum commitment of 260th GRAU long-range artillery munitions (PIR 17). The purpose is to achieve significant UAF force and C2 attrition before committing the Peschanoye maneuver elements. Ground maneuver across the Gaychur River is likely delayed until the next major operational window (NLT 2000Z).

MDCOA (Immediate, Limited Armor Probe): (LOW Confidence, Decreasing) RF Command attempts a limited, brigade-level armored probe between 0600Z and 0800Z, relying on existing fire superiority to mask the movement, seeking to capitalize on potential fatigue or mispositioning of UAF forward observation posts. This action risks premature commitment of forces without necessary logistical backing.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The delay in the RF push necessitates a CR adjustment from "immediate ground saturation" to "persistent surveillance and identification of fire preparation targets."