Situation Report

Situation Update (04:35Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Peschanoye Ground Maneuver Delay (CRITICAL): As of 04:35Z, there is NO CONFIRMATION of RF heavy armor (PIR 1) crossing the Gaychur River bridgehead. The immediate exploitation window (NLT 0500Z) outlined in the previous assessment is rapidly closing, suggesting a delay in the MLCOA. (04:35Z, Analyst Judgment, HIGH)
• RF Deep Strike Claim (Chernihiv): RF state media claims a successful "Geran" (Shahed) strike on a UAF UAV battalion headquarters in Chernihiv Oblast. This operation targets UAF force multiplication capacity and C2 infrastructure deep in the rear. (04:13Z, TASS, LOW/UNCONFIRMED)
• Continued UAF Deep Pressure: RF MoD claims the interception of 94 UAF UAVs over RF regions overnight, forcing widespread commitment of RF Air Defense assets. Damage to civilian infrastructure (garage, power line) was reported in Voronezh Oblast. (04:14Z, TASS/MoD, MEDIUM)
• UAV Threat Vectors: UAF Air Force issued alerts for inbound UAVs targeting Zaporizhzhia (from the East) and Kharkiv (from the Northeast), confirming continued RF aerial reconnaissance and attrition efforts along the front line sectors. (04:10Z, 04:31Z, Air Force, HIGH)

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational focus remains on the Southern Axis where RF Vostok Group is poised for ground maneuver exploitation. The situation is characterized by a critical lull phase in kinetic ground activity, juxtaposed with continued high-intensity fire preparation and deep battle activity.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Peschanoye): The lack of ground maneuver confirmation confirms a temporary hold or tactical delay by RF Command. While the heavy armor is likely staged and ready, the non-committal decision indicates RF commanders may be awaiting specific BDA, observing UAF reserve movements, or facing technical/logistical holdups related to breaching equipment. The threat remains CRITICAL but the assessed immediate timing (NLT 0500Z) is under review.

EASTERN AXIS (Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv): The presence of inbound UAVs confirms RF is utilizing the current lull to maintain ISR coverage and force UAF AD dispersal. The strike geometry suggests RF is probing defensive weaknesses ahead of the main operational effort.

DEEP BATTLE (Ukraine Rear): RF forces are prioritizing the disruption of UAF deep strike and ISR capabilities, as evidenced by the claimed strike on the UAV C2 node in Chernihiv. This is a critical component of RF counter-hybrid warfare strategy.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Maneuver Intent (Southern Axis): The failure to initiate the heavy armor push by 04:35Z suggests the RF MLCOA timeline has slipped. This delay is either tactical (optimizing fire support timing, clearing obstacles) or operational (re-evaluating objectives based on perceived UAF defense density). The window for a rapid, decisive push before daylight hours fully commence is narrowing.

• Assessment: The previous assessment of heavy armor commitment remains the primary threat, but the probability shifts towards initiation between 0500Z and 0600Z, or a complete operational hold for 12+ hours to execute further preparatory fires. (MEDIUM Confidence)

2. Deep Strike/Air Campaign: RF forces are sustaining a high-volume deep strike operation against UAF C2/logistics infrastructure, confirmed by the Chernihiv claim. Concurrently, the operational tempo of UAF deep strikes against RF territory is confirmed by the scale of the 94-UAV intercept claim.

• Adaptation: RF is actively improving its AD integration, leveraging claims of mass intercepts for psychological effect and justifying the extensive deployment of AD assets previously required to protect the front lines.

3. Logistics & Sustainment: The public display of military hardware (04:11Z, Fighterbomber) coupled with historical messaging (04:34Z, Basurin) aligns with RF efforts to project image of robust sustainment, masking actual logistical constraints or delays that may be contributing to the Peschanoye pause.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF deep strike efforts continue to exert significant pressure on RF strategic depth, forcing resource attrition (AD missile expenditure) and diverting resources away from the front line.

1. High Alert Status: UAF forces maintain an aggressive alert posture, evidenced by the immediate issuance of UAV warnings in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. This demonstrates effective sensor coverage and timely dissemination of threat information.
2. Sustained Pressure: The volume of UAF UAVs targeting RF territory (94 claimed intercepts) confirms UAF capability to saturate RF AD networks, compensating for limitations in conventional strike assets.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment (IE) is dominated by narratives designed to influence strategic perception and maintain domestic support.

• RF Projection of Resilience: Highlighting the mass UAV intercept (04:14Z, 04:24Z) serves to demonstrate the technological and operational strength of RF AD capabilities, attempting to negate the strategic messaging of UAF deep strikes. The focus on domestic tranquility (long holidays) attempts to normalize the conflict and stabilize the home front.
• Western Focus on Leverage: Reporting on the potential use of frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian reparations (04:20Z) reinforces the narrative of long-term Western commitment and the financial consequences imposed upon the RF regime.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate outlook is governed by the outcome of the Peschanoye maneuver decision point (0500Z).

MLCOA (Extended Attrition Campaign): (HIGH Confidence, Revised) If the RF heavy armor maneuver is not initiated NLT 0530Z, the MLCOA shifts to sustained, high-intensity preparatory fires. RF command will commit to 6-12 hours of expanded KAB saturation, artillery fire (from the 260th GRAU surge), and massed UAV strikes across Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. This aims to attrit UAF forces further before committing the decisive armored force, likely delaying the ground maneuver until the cover of the next operational window (2000Z - 0400Z).

MDCOA (Delayed Heavy Armor Exploitation): (MEDIUM Confidence, Unchanged) RF Command proceeds with the heavy armor crossing between 0500Z and 0600Z, leveraging the current tactical lull and relying on EMCON measures to mask the maneuver. This would constitute a high-risk operation seeking immediate tactical gain by catching UAF response forces off-guard.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The immediate ground trigger confirmation at Peschanoye remains the singular most critical intelligence requirement. The lack of confirmation of UAF deep strike target type (PIR 21) in Krasnodar remains a gap preventing assessment of strategic impact.