Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 03:35Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• KAB Saturation Confirmed (Expanded): UAF Air Force reconfirmed sustained launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) simultaneously targeting Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (03:11Z, UAF AF, HIGH). This confirms maximum RF fire preparation across the entire Southern operational depth and slightly expands the threat area to include critical Donetsk infrastructure.
• US Senate Sanctions Proposal: A bill proposing mandatory sanctions on entities facilitating Russian oil trade has been introduced in the US Senate (03:14Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH). This is a positive strategic development, signaling increased future economic pressure on the RF regime.
• RF VDV Morale Post: A pro-RF channel shared a highly motivational post referencing the Russian Airborne Troops (VDV) (03:31Z, Дневник Десантника, LOW). While not actionable, this aligns with the assessed high readiness posture required for imminent maneuver operations.

Operational picture (by sector)

The synchronized KAB strikes confirm the RF intent to achieve operational paralysis across the Southern Axis before initiating ground maneuver. The operational geometry is now set for maximum risk exposure for UAF fixed assets.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk / Zaporizhzhia / Peschanoye): The confirmed KAB activity (03:11Z) reinforces the isolation of the battlefield surrounding the Peschanoye bridgehead. The inclusion of the Donetsk sector in the latest strike confirmation suggests that RF planners are using KABs to fix UAF reserves not just in the immediate depth (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk), but also those positioned further East (Donetsk) that might otherwise pivot to counter the Vostok Group maneuver. The period of fire preparation is assessed to be reaching its culmination.

NORTH-EASTERN AXIS (Sumy): No new kinetic activity reported, but the need to monitor this axis for deception or secondary attacks remains (PIR 18).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

The threat assessment remains CRITICAL, specifically regarding the anticipated heavy armor insertion at Peschanoye.

1. Sustained Fire Supremacy (CRITICAL THREAT): RF forces are executing a highly synchronized, sustained air-delivered attrition campaign targeting key UAF operational depth (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia) and primary combat zones (Donetsk). This ensures UAF AD assets are saturated and reserve deployment is severely degraded. This confirms the RF commitment to fire dominance immediately preceding ground action. (HIGH Confidence)

2. Ground Maneuver Initiation (CRITICAL HIGH): The persistent KAB strikes across multiple oblasts strongly suggest the RF Vostok Group is executing the final preparatory phase. The window for initiating heavy armor maneuver across the Gaychur River at Peschanoye (PIR 1) is now immediate and is forecast to occur NLT 0430Z, as previously assessed. (HIGH Confidence)

3. Strategic Fixing Operation: The synchronization indicates that the RF intent is to fix UAF operational reserves along a broad front, minimizing the risk of a robust, coordinated UAF counter-attack against the bridgehead once heavy armor is committed.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces must prioritize the preservation of operational reserves and C2 capabilities under intense aerial attack.

1. Active Dispersion and Hardening: All UAF assets within the confirmed KAB strike zones (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Western Donetsk) must maintain active dispersion and hardening protocols. Units must prioritize mobility and passive defense over static entrenchment.
2. AD Asset Mobility: AD components tasked with deep interdiction (PIR 20) must maximize shoot-and-scoot procedures to avoid targeting by subsequent KAB waves or RF counter-battery fire.
3. ISR Focus (PIR 1): Resources must remain hyper-focused on confirming the ground trigger at Peschanoye, disregarding information noise from non-kinetic sectors.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is characterized by continued strategic economic campaigning and domestic normalization efforts by the RF, countered by significant positive strategic movement from Western allies.

• Strategic Economic Pressure (UAF Advantage): The introduction of mandatory US Senate sanctions targeting RF oil trade facilitation (03:14Z) directly supports the UAF goal of degrading RF financial sustainment. UAF IO should immediately amplify this development to maintain international pressure. (HIGH Confidence)
• RF Normalization and Propaganda: RF state media continues to broadcast normalization narratives (e.g., cheap holiday rentals, 03:34Z) and domestic counter-terrorism actions (Zabaykalsky Krai, 03:07Z). This aims to project an image of internal stability and control, insulating the domestic population from the costs of the war.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The sustained, synchronized KAB strikes elevate the probability of immediate ground action. The decision point for UAF reserves is rapidly approaching.

MLCOA (Heavy Armor Insertion and Exploitation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will conclude the KAB attrition strikes and immediately initiate the commitment of heavy armor and mechanized infantry across the Gaychur River at the Peschanoye bridgehead, NLT 0430Z. The heavy armor element will attempt rapid exploitation toward UAF logistical hubs and C2 nodes in the operational rear.

MDCOA (Continuation of Air/Artillery Attrition Only): (MEDIUM-LOW Confidence) If BDA determines the KAB effectiveness was lower than anticipated, or if reconnaissance confirms high UAF readiness at the crossing points, RF Command may hold the heavy armor maneuver and instead sustain high-intensity artillery and KAB strikes for an extended period (12-24h). This would aim to completely deplete UAF air defense and force a premature commitment of reserves.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The immediate verification of RF heavy armor movement remains the top priority. Specific target effects (BDA) of the expanded KAB strikes are also critical for informing immediate UAF defensive maneuvers.