Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 03:06Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• KAB Strike Expansion Confirmed (Zaporizhzhia): UAF Air Force confirms new Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast (02:59Z, UAF AF, HIGH). This validates the anticipated expansion of preparatory fires south of Dnipropetrovsk, fixing UAF operational reserves near the Southern Axis.
• Zaporizhzhia Imminent Threat Alert: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued an immediate threat alert (02:58Z, ZAP OWA, HIGH), directly preceding the KAB confirmation, underscoring the immediate kinetic threat to assets and infrastructure in the region.
• RF Annexation Infrastructure Advanced: RF media reports that President Putin signed legislation allowing the seizure of private housing in occupied Ukrainian territories (02:52Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH). This represents a strategic, legal domain action aimed at permanent consolidation and civilian intimidation.
• RF Long-Term Financial IO: RF state media continues the economic warfare narrative by projecting long-term USD/RUB exchange rates into 2042 (02:38Z, ТАСС, HIGH), reinforcing the narrative of RF long-term financial stability despite international pressure.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture confirms the peak synchronization of RF preparatory fires across the critical Southern Operational Axis, signaling that the window for heavy ground maneuver is immediate.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk / Zaporizhzhia / Peschanoye): The confirmed KAB strikes now fully encompass the operational depth surrounding the confirmed Peschanoye bridgehead, extending from Dnipropetrovsk south into Zaporizhzhia (02:59Z). This fire geometry is designed to isolate the battlefield at the operational level (20-70 km deep), targeting UAF long-range artillery and reserve assembly areas. This synchronization is the final kinetic enabler for the ground force maneuver across the Gaychur River.

NORTH-EASTERN AXIS (Sumy): The threat from the previously identified UAV vector remains, further complicating UAF AD resource allocation away from the critical Southern Axis.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Preparatory Fire Saturation (CRITICAL THREAT): The expansion of KAB launches into Zaporizhzhia Oblast (02:59Z) confirms that RF forces have completed the spatial isolation of the Peschanoye objective area. This indicates that RF BDA on previous Dnipropetrovsk strikes was either favorable, or RF Command is moving ahead with maximum firepower saturation regardless, aiming to neutralize all potential UAF reserve counter-attacks. (HIGH Confidence)

2. Kinetic Trigger Imminent: The operational window for the RF ground maneuver is fully open, leveraged by the KAB strikes. Vostok Group forces are assessed to be awaiting only localized BDA verification before initiating the heavy armor crossing NLT 0430Z. This is the moment of maximum risk for a significant RF breakthrough. (HIGH Confidence)

3. Legal and Psychological Warfare: The new RF law on housing seizure (02:52Z) is a Hybrid Warfare element designed to undermine civilian loyalty and reinforce the narrative of permanent, irreversible occupation. This action facilitates strategic depopulation or resettlement plans by granting the RF state arbitrary control over private assets in occupied zones. (HIGH Confidence)

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF ADCOM and Ground Forces must execute immediate adjustments based on the expanded kinetic threat:

1. Counter-KAB Force Protection: All UAF reserves, C2 nodes, and primary artillery fire positions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast must immediately implement advanced dispersion, hardening, and electronic signature management to mitigate the effects of the confirmed KAB saturation strikes.
2. Reserve Readiness (Zaporizhzhia): Forces designated to counter the Peschanoye breach must maintain maximum readiness, prioritizing mobility over entrenched positions, anticipating the need for rapid deployment once the location and scale of the RF ground assault are confirmed (PIR 1).
3. AD Geometry Refinement: AD assets must execute rapid trajectory analysis based on the Zaporizhzhia KAB launch confirmation (PIR 20) to identify and preempt further deep strikes against logistical HVTs.

Information environment / disinformation

The Information Environment is characterized by layered RF campaigns targeting sovereignty, finance, and domestic stability.

• RF Sovereignty Claim: The housing seizure law (02:52Z) is the key IO action of the hour, directly contradicting international norms and Ukrainian sovereignty.
• Counter-Narrative: UAF IO should focus messaging on the war crime nature of asset seizure, coordinating with allied nations to issue immediate condemnations to maintain international support pressure.
• Strategic Alignment: The stated belief by a prominent US political figure (02:52Z) regarding Putin's intent to seize all of Ukraine provides strategic leverage for UAF to advocate for continuous and escalated military aid packages.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The expansion and synchronization of preparatory fires elevate the immediate threat level. The focus shifts entirely to tactical ISR and confirmation of the RF ground component crossing the Gaychur River.

MLCOA (Heavy Armor Insertion and Exploitation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will initiate the commitment of heavy armor and mechanized infantry across the Gaychur River at the Peschanoye bridgehead (NLT 0430Z). The primary operational objective is rapid exploitation of the breach, aimed at securing the operational depth necessary to flank UAF positions in the Zaporizhzhia area and threaten the stability of the entire Southern Front.

MDCOA (Full Operational Deception and Pivot): (MEDIUM Confidence) The KAB strikes are confirmed as a fixing operation, but the main ground assault (MDCOA) pivots to a different axis (e.g., reinforced Vremivka sector or Huliaipole) after the KAB strikes conclude. This aims to catch UAF reserves—focused on the Peschanoye threat—off balance, forcing them to commit to a costly, ill-prepared counter-attack on an alternate vector.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The immediate verification of RF heavy armor movement and the precise effects of the KAB campaign are the highest priorities.