Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 02:40Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Mykolaiv UAV Vector Refined: The inbound UAV threat to Mykolaiv is confirmed approaching from the Southeast (02:26Z, UAF AF, HIGH), revising the previous "from the North" trajectory and optimizing UAF AD response parameters.
• Confirmed KAB Launches (Dnipropetrovsk): Multiple Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches are confirmed targeting Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts (02:33Z, UAF AF, HIGH). This confirms the initiation of deep preparatory fires immediately preceding anticipated ground maneuver.
• New Northern UAV Vector: A new, distinct group of enemy UAVs is detected in Eastern Sumy Oblast, moving West and South (02:22Z, UAF AF, HIGH). This introduces a sixth simultaneous kinetic threat vector, further stressing AD coverage in the Central and Northern logistics zones.
• RF BDA Claim near Peschanoye: RF sources claim successful UAV strikes against a UAF armored vehicle and troop concentration in the Vremivka direction (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) (02:12Z, Colonelcassad, LOW). This unconfirmed claim places immediate combat focus on the critical flanks of the Peschanoye operational area.
• RF Strategic IO Pivot: RF state media initiated a financial warfare narrative targeting the EU, claiming that the potential use of frozen Russian reserves will cause market instability and investor flight (02:26Z, TASS, HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture confirms the transition from RF kinetic shaping operations (UAV saturation) to the preparatory fire phase (KAB launches) designed to enable the ground maneuver on the Southern Axis.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk / Peschanoye): The confirmed KAB strikes directly targeting Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (02:33Z) signal that the RF Vostok Group is initiating its attack sequence. These strikes are aimed at neutralizing UAF long-range artillery and reserve assembly areas before RF forces attempt to exploit the confirmed Gaychur River bridgehead. The Vremivka BDA claim, while unconfirmed, highlights that the immediate focus is on securing the flanks of the anticipated maneuver.

MYKOLAIV AO: The revised UAV trajectory (Southeast) necessitates immediate repositioning of mobile AD assets to cover the maritime and coastal approach corridors, protecting critical port and logistics facilities supporting the Southern Front.

NORTH-EASTERN AXIS (Sumy): The newly detected UAV vector (02:22Z) complicates AD resource prioritization. This vector threatens rail links or depots further north, potentially forcing UAF C2 to divert assets that might otherwise protect Poltava or respond to the Southern crisis.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Synchronization Peak: RF forces are demonstrating highly coordinated, multi-domain attack synchronization, combining six concurrent UAV vectors with targeted KAB strikes in the critical operational zone (Dnipropetrovsk). The objective is overwhelming UAF AD and C2 redundancy. (HIGH Confidence)

2. KAB Strike Intent: KAB strikes are precision-fire support designed to isolate the battlefield at the operational depth (20-70 km). Their deployment into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (02:33Z) aims to suppress UAF reserve movement and destroy prepared defensive positions, providing the essential operational window for the ground advance at Peschanoye. (HIGH Confidence)

3. Psychological and Financial IO: The strategic IO pivot to targeting EU financial stability (02:26Z) is a deliberate attempt to erode international resolve at a critical juncture in the conflict. This is assessed as a hybrid operation designed to impact Western political calculus simultaneously with kinetic military action. (HIGH Confidence)

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF ADCOM is managing critical, immediate trade-offs in asset allocation:

1. Immediate Response: Prioritization must be given to countering the KAB threat in Dnipropetrovsk and ensuring C2 survivability.
2. AD Geometry Adjustment: AD assets must execute rapid adjustment to the Mykolaiv threat based on the Southeast approach vector, while simultaneous tracking and engagement protocols are initiated for the new Sumy vector.
3. Artillery Hardening: UAF forces must implement immediate counter-KAB measures, including camouflage, dispersion, and movement protocols for artillery assets positioned to interdict the Peschanoye bridgehead.

Information environment / disinformation

RF IO is operating globally, attempting to undermine both domestic support for Ukraine's allies and international financial stability.

• Impact: The RF financial narrative seeks to sow distrust among EU/US allies regarding financial policy stability, linking support for Ukraine to domestic economic risk.
• Mitigation: UAF should amplify Western reporting on confirmed long-term support plans (e.g., the NYT/EU/US post-war plan, 02:06Z) to publicly reinforce allied commitment and neutralize the RF financial scaremongering.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate outlook suggests RF ground action is imminent, utilizing the operational window created by the ongoing, synchronized kinetic strikes.

MLCOA (Ground Probing and Exploitation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will initiate aggressive reconnaissance-in-force or localized probing attacks at the Peschanoye bridgehead (NLT 0400Z). These forces will test the UAF reaction time and assess BDA from the KAB strikes, specifically looking for weaknesses in UAF artillery coverage or reserve readiness before committing heavy armor.

MDCOA (Immediate Armor Insertion at Peschanoye): (MEDIUM Confidence) If the KAB strikes inflict significant verifiable damage to UAF defensive artillery or logistical nodes in Dnipropetrovsk (PIR 17), RF Vostok Group will bypass extensive probing and initiate the immediate crossing of heavy armor to seize strategic depths and threaten the operational rear of the Zaporizhzhia grouping.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The immediate verification of ground movement remains the highest priority, coupled with BDA assessment of the preparatory fires.