Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 01:10Z, 17 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Poltava UAV Vector Re-Confirmed: The RF UAV group tracking southwest from Sumy Oblast remains on course toward Poltava Oblast (00:56Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH). This confirms sustained kinetic focus on Central Ukrainian logistics and corroborates the required AD asset reallocation.
• RF IO: French Specialists Claim (UNCONFIRMED): Russian state media (TASS) circulated an UNCONFIRMED claim, citing a former French officer, asserting the presence of French military specialists in Ukraine for training purposes (00:36Z, TASS, LOW).
• RF IO: POW Mistreatment Framing: Pro-RF channels disseminated targeted propaganda alleging mistreatment of captured Russian servicemen by UAF forces, likely aimed at hardening internal resolve (01:03Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH - concerning propaganda intent).

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture remains dominated by the highly distributed, synchronized RF deep strike effort designed to neutralize key UAF logistical and C2 nodes ahead of the anticipated ground maneuver at Peschanoye.

CENTRAL AXIS (Poltava): The confirmed UAV vector ensures that strategic logistics and energy HVTs in Poltava Oblast are under immediate kinetic threat. UAF ADCOM is committed to intercepting this group, which is currently assessed as having a high probability of success against its HVT if AD density is insufficient. SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk / Peschanoye): The kinetic preparation phase continues, focusing on Dnipropetrovsk to support the RF Vostok Group. No new intelligence confirms the initiation of the Peschanoye ground maneuver (PIR 1) or the crossing of heavy armor. RF forces are postured for immediate exploitation following the strike conclusion (estimated NLT 0200Z). NORTHERN AXIS (Chernihiv): The southbound UAV group from Chernihiv Oblast remains an unresolved threat, maintaining AD dilution across the northern front.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Synchronized Deep Strike Execution: RF operational C2 continues to demonstrate the capacity for coordinated multi-axis saturation. The kinetic intent remains clearly defined: degrade strategic UAF ability to maneuver reserves (Poltava) while simultaneously paralyzing immediate UAF C2/logistics required for rapid counter-attack against the Peschanoye bridgehead. (HIGH Confidence) 2. Information Warfare (External Escalation): The UNCONFIRMED TASS report alleging French specialist presence introduces a new layer of RF international framing. This narrative seeks to depict NATO members as direct combatants, potentially serving as an information preparation effort (IPE) to justify future RF deep strikes against areas previously considered non-combatant, such as training facilities or Western supply corridors. 3. Tactical Adaptation (Ground): The reliance on heavy-lift hexacopters at Peschanoye suggests RF Vostok Group is mitigating the immediate constraint of lacking heavy bridge engineering assets, confirming intent to sustain the bridgehead while preparing the means for heavy armor insertion.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF ADCOM is focused on deconflicting assets across the three active threat vectors. The UAF must prioritize the defense of Poltava rail junctions and fuel depots (PIR 15) while maintaining sufficient defense layers over Dnipropetrovsk regional C2.

1. AD Prioritization: Mobile AD units are being tasked to intercept the confirmed Poltava-bound UAVs to prevent the expenditure of long-range, high-cost AD missile inventory (e.g., Patriot, NASAMS) on Shahed-type drones.
2. Maneuver Hold: UAF reserves are likely being held in positions that allow for rapid deployment to counter a confirmed heavy armor crossing at Peschanoye, rather than being prematurely committed to the kinetic interception phase.

Information environment / disinformation

The RF campaign is running parallel external escalation and internal morale hardening narratives:

1. Escalation Framing: The claim of French military specialists (UNCONFIRMED) is a critical component of the RF narrative portraying the conflict as a direct war against the West. UAF forces must be prepared for this narrative to be weaponized diplomatically and kinetically.
2. Moral Justification: The dissemination of alleged POW mistreatment is a classic psychological operation designed to solidify domestic support for the war, reinforce the "denazification" narrative, and increase aggression among RF front-line units. UAF Information Operations must immediately prepare counter-narratives emphasizing adherence to the Geneva Convention.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate outlook is defined by the conclusion of the UAV saturation wave (estimated NLT 0200Z) and the subsequent window for RF ground exploitation at Peschanoye.

MLCOA (Kinetic Trigger and Maneuver): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will conclude the UAV strike execution targeting Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava. Immediately following the kinetic effects window, RF ground forces will initiate attempts to push heavy armor or bridging equipment across the Gaychur River at Peschanoye. ISR will be critical during this immediate post-strike window to confirm the ground maneuver trigger.

MDCOA (Central Logistics Collapse): (MEDIUM Confidence, Increased Risk) A successful, simultaneous RF strike on the designated HVTs in Poltava (logistics/rail) and Dnipropetrovsk (C2/logistics). This combination achieves the RF operational goal by impeding UAF ability to reposition reserves to counter the Peschanoye maneuver, risking operational depth for the Vostok Group.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements