Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 162105Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• Kyiv Deep Strike Engagement (CRITICAL): UAF Air Defense (AD) is actively engaging inbound UAVs over Kyiv. Explosions confirmed in the Obolon district (20:55Z, Klitschko, HIGH). UAV elements are confirmed routing towards Hostomel (20:58Z, Air Force, HIGH).
• Zaporizhzhia KAB Saturation (CRITICAL): RF forces confirmed the use of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (21:05Z, Air Force, HIGH). This directly confirms the expected synchronization of preparatory fires in the South with the Kyiv distraction operation.
• Eastern Flank Evacuation: Mandatory evacuation was announced for Sviatohirsk and eight surrounding villages in the Ukrainian-controlled portion of Donetsk Oblast (21:01Z, TASS, HIGH). This suggests UAF forces anticipate renewed, heavy RF offensive pressure or preparation for increased use of heavy indirect fire in this sector.
• UAF AD Success: A specialized UAF anti-drone unit (92nd Brigade) successfully intercepted and destroyed an RF Shahed/Gerbera type UAV, confirming operational effectiveness (21:03Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM).
• Strategic Aid Secured: German Minister Pistorius confirmed the transfer of two additional Patriot systems, one IRIS-T system, and anti-drone missiles to Ukraine (20:41Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

CENTRAL AXIS (Kyiv): RF forces are successfully executing the psychological and kinetic distraction maneuver. UAVs confirmed tracking West towards central/western Kyiv objectives, passing Brovary. The engagement over Obolon confirms the close proximity of the threat to high-value infrastructure. AD resources remain fully committed. The subsequent tracking of a group towards Hostomel (airfield complex) suggests potential secondary targeting of military aviation or logistics nodes.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Zaporizhzhia): The operational tempo has sharply escalated. The confirmation of KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia (21:05Z) transitions the sector from a preparatory phase to the active "shaping" phase required immediately preceding a heavy armor breakthrough. This air-ground synchronization increases the confidence level for an imminent RF ground maneuver (MDCOA) at the Peschanoye bridgehead, leveraging the cover of the Kyiv AD strain.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk/Kharkiv): The mandatory evacuation order in Sviatohirsk (Northern Donetsk flank) is a key indicator of UAF defensive concern. This region, near the Siverskyi Donets River, is strategically important. The UAF administration is likely clearing the battlespace to allow for maximum flexibility in defensive fires or to anticipate a significant escalation of RF artillery and air attacks (similar to the KAB strikes now active in Zaporizhzhia). This requires urgent monitoring to determine if RF forces are preparing a secondary thrust here.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Synchronized Attack Execution: RF forces achieved full synchronization of their current operational cycle: Deep Strike (Kyiv) concurrent with Theater Shaping Fires (Zaporizhzhia KABs). This confirms RF intent to maximize UAF C2 strain and resource allocation decisions (AD vs. Ground Defense). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. Immediate Ground Maneuver Risk: The confirmation of KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia means the environmental optimization for the ground push is complete. The MDCOA (Immediate Armor Thrust at Peschanoye, previously NLT 170400Z) now has a higher probability of initiation within the next 3 hours (NLT 170000Z), capitalizing on the peak distraction moment.

3. RF Counter-UAS Focus: RF combat reports highlighting their success in countering UAF UAVs (Colonelcassad, 20:51Z) indicate a dedicated and improving capability. This attempts to neutralize UAF tactical ISR advantage, which is critical for verifying the Peschanoye threat (PIR 1).

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Effective AD Response: UAF AD forces demonstrated rapid activation and successful initial engagements over Kyiv (Obolon, Brovary). The reported shoot-down by the 92nd Brigade unit highlights tactical proficiency against the UAV threat.
• Strategic Reinforcement: The commitment of two Patriot and one IRIS-T system by Germany represents a significant long-term strategic investment in UAF AD resilience, mitigating the reliance on older systems and addressing saturation tactics.
• Force Protection/Population Management: The Sviatohirsk evacuation is a critical UAF control measure to reduce civilian casualties and increase military flexibility in anticipation of heavy fighting.

Information environment / disinformation

RF psychological operations are leveraging internal Ukrainian political figures to sow discord. The dissemination of highly sensationalized and likely fabricated statements attributed to former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi (20:47Z, Операция Z) is a focused effort to erode domestic morale and trust in the military and government structure. UAF channels are running counter-narratives focused on RF internal corruption and class conflict (20:51Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The focus shifts immediately to the ground situation in Zaporizhzhia. The Kyiv deep strike is actively being mitigated, but the tactical effect of the KAB strikes is creating the operational window for the RF Vostok Group.

MLCOA (Kyiv Intercept, Zaporizhzhia Consolidation): (MEDIUM Confidence) UAF AD successfully clears the inbound UAV package. RF ground forces in Zaporizhzhia utilize the KAB strikes to eliminate forward UAF strongpoints (Huliaipole/Stepnogorsk) and consolidate the Peschanoye bridgehead, bringing heavy armor forward for a major assault attempt after 170400Z, waiting for optimal C2 synchronization and exploiting potential UAF AD missile depletion.

MDCOA (Immediate Armor Thrust at Peschanoye): (HIGH Confidence) Under the cover of KAB saturation and the continued UAF AD focus on Kyiv, RF Vostok Group commits the heavy armor element across the Gaychur River at Peschanoye NLT 170000Z. Simultaneous, heavy indirect fire or opportunistic ground pressure may initiate near Sviatohirsk to fix Eastern UAF reserves. This MDCOA represents the maximum credible threat to the Southern Command structure.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The immediate verification of ground movement in Zaporizhzhia remains the highest priority. The emergence of the Sviatohirsk evacuation adds a critical new PIR for the Eastern Axis.