Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 162045Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• Kyiv Air Defense Activation (CRITICAL): The Russian Federation (RF) UAV group previously tracked inbound has successfully triggered a full Air Raid Alert for Kyiv City (20:34Z, КМВА, HIGH). This confirms the imminent threat against the strategic center and necessitates immediate AD prioritization.
• ZNPP Power Dependency Risk: The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is confirmed to be operating on only a single external power supply line (20:25Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH). This significantly elevates the risk profile for a strategic energy supply disruption or potential nuclear incident (Dempster-Shafer belief score 0.059270).
• Zaporizhzhia Flank Pressure: RF forces are maintaining high operational tempo on the Southern Flank, with RF Vostok Group UAVs striking UAF strongpoints near Huliaipole (20:16Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH) and claimed RF tactical advances in the Stepnogorsk vicinity (20:32Z, Сливочный каприз, MEDIUM).
• UAF Defensive Successes (East): UAF 1st Corps National Guard "Azov" successfully repelled an RF ground assault in the Dobropillia direction (20:18Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM). Separately, UAF UAV assets destroyed an RF Armored Personnel Carrier (BTR) and Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) near Toretsk (20:07Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

CENTRAL AXIS (Kyiv): The operational window for the RF deep strike is now active. The Air Raid Alert (20:34Z) requires maximum resource allocation to Air Defense (AD) assets to neutralize the inbound threat. This strategically draws UAF attention and AD coverage away from the Southern and Eastern Axes.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): Operational tempo is increasing, indicating the final preparatory phase for the decisive maneuver.

1. Ground Pressure: The concentration of RF tactical UAV strikes (Huliaipole) and claimed advances (Stepnogorsk) are fixing UAF reserves on the immediate flanks of the critical Peschanoye bridgehead (Gaychur River). This pattern strongly supports the preparation for the MDCOA (heavy armor thrust).
2. Strategic Vulnerability: The critical state of the ZNPP power supply (operating on a single line) introduces a second, non-military, strategic risk factor that must be managed simultaneously with the ground defense. Loss of the remaining line could necessitate complex emergency response and draw operational focus.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk/Kharkiv): UAF continues to demonstrate local tactical resilience. Successful defensive actions near Dobropillia and the confirmed destruction of high-value RF assets (BTR/MLRS) near Toretsk suggest UAF units are maintaining C2 and effective counter-fire capabilities despite the heavy RF aerial saturation (KABs).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Deep Strike Synchronization: The timing of the Kyiv air threat (20:34Z) is highly likely synchronized with ongoing preparatory actions in the South (Huliaipole UAV strikes, Stepnogorsk pressure). Analytical Judgment: RF is executing a classic distraction maneuver, aiming to force UAF High Command to commit critical AD resources and strategic attention to the capital, enabling the Southern Vostok Group to initiate its ground maneuver with less UAF reactive capacity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. Intensification of Southern Preparations: The use of the 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade's UAV assets to engage UAF strongpoints near Huliaipole confirms that RF Vostok Group is actively clearing and fixing UAF strongpoints covering the flank approach to the main axis of advance (Peschanoye). The claimed advances in Stepnogorsk, though UNCONFIRMED, align with the doctrinal need to secure both northern and southern flanks of the breakthrough axis.

3. Exploitation of Strategic Risk (ZNPP): The operational status of the ZNPP power lines provides RF with escalation leverage. Any further damage, whether accidental or intentional, could compel a UAF operational pause or resource diversion.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Tactical Effectiveness: UAF units utilizing drones demonstrated operational effectiveness by targeting and destroying critical RF armor and fire support assets in the Toretsk direction (MLRS, BTR).
• Resilient Defense: The NGB's successful repulsion of the assault near Dobropillia confirms robust defensive lines and morale in the Eastern sector, preventing opportunistic RF gains while attention is focused south.
• Information Operation: UAF assets are signaling continued deep strike capability against multiple RF Oblasts (20:20Z), likely intended to force RF internal security reallocation and maintain cognitive pressure on the RF populace and leadership.

Information environment / disinformation

RF information strategy is focusing on confirming local tactical gains while downplaying strategic threats:

• RF Propaganda: RF military bloggers are amplifying claimed success (Huliaipole, Stepnogorsk) to project momentum in the critical Zaporizhzhia sector. The MoD’s "Top News Today" (20:34Z) provides a general image of high activity and operational success, designed for domestic consumption.
• UAF Counter-Narrative: UAF channels are emphasizing confirmed combat effectiveness (drone strikes on high-value targets, defensive success) and highlighting UAF reach into RF territory to counter RF narrative superiority.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate next hours are the critical window for both air defense response and the potential initiation of the MDCOA in the South.

MLCOA (Successful Kyiv Air Defense & Sustained Southern Pressure): (HIGH Confidence) UAF AD successfully intercepts the majority of the Kyiv-bound UAV package, minimizing strategic damage. However, RF preparatory fires (KAB/Artillery) and fixing operations continue in Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole, Stepnogorsk), ensuring that the ground environment is optimized for a heavy armor commitment later in the night (NLT 170400Z).

MDCOA (Immediate Armor Thrust at Peschanoye): (HIGH Confidence) Under the cover of darkness and capitalizing on the AD strain imposed by the Kyiv strike, the RF Vostok Group commits tanks and IFVs across the Gaychur River at Peschanoye. This breakthrough poses a strategic threat to the stability of the entire Southern front.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The convergence of the Kyiv air threat and the sustained pressure in Zaporizhzhia requires maintaining dual focus, with PIR 1 remaining the highest priority trigger for operational response.