Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 162005Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• UAV Vector Escalation (Kyiv): (20:01Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH) RF UAV assets previously tracked over Poltava and Cherkasy Oblasts are now confirmed inbound toward Kyiv Oblast. This represents a critical escalation in the deep strike campaign, targeting the political and strategic center.
• Drone Attack Confirmation (Odesa Civilian Damage): (19:50Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH) RF drone attacks successfully struck Southern Odesa Oblast, resulting in confirmed damage to civilian infrastructure. This corroborates and confirms the sustained effort to interdict Southern logistics GLOCs noted in the PDR.
• Localized UAF Offensive Momentum (Kupiansk): (19:39Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM) UAF "Khartia Corps" claims to be isolating and eliminating Russian Federation (RF) forces reportedly surrounded in the center of Kupiansk. This, if confirmed, signifies a localized UAF tactical success on the Kharkiv-Lyman axis.
• KAB Strikes Continue (Donetsk): (19:38Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH) RF forces launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Donetsk Oblast, maintaining aerial saturation across the Eastern front line areas and fixing UAF maneuver reserves.
• Strategic Support Confirmed (Ramstein): (19:36Z, Операция Z, HIGH) Ukrainian Minister of Defence confirmed that 15 nations pledged new military commitments during the latest Ramstein meeting, reinforcing long-term sustainment planning.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational tempo remains high, characterized by deep strike targeting and localized ground engagements. The primary strategic concern is the immediate threat to the Southern flank, now overlaid with the immediate operational requirement to defend the Central/Kyiv region airspace.

CENTRAL AXIS (Kyiv/Cherkasy): The highest immediate air defense threat is the UAV group moving toward Kyiv Oblast (20:01Z). This group successfully transited Poltava and Cherkasy Oblasts, indicating potential RF exploitation of AD gaps in central Ukraine. This attack aims to disrupt strategic C4ISR and national morale.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): The critical operational threat—the imminent heavy armor push at Peschanoye—is still active (MDCOA, HIGH confidence from PSR). Supporting fires continue, evidenced by the reported UAV strike and subsequent injuries in Zaporizhzhia (19:52Z). The continued attacks on Odesa logistics (19:50Z) further suggest RF intent to neutralize UAF reaction capacity in the South before the ground maneuver initiates.

EASTERN AXIS (Donetsk/Kharkiv): The sector exhibits fluid but high-intensity combat. The situation around Siversk remains stable, supported by the confirmed repulsion of an RF assault by the UAF 92nd Brigade (20:01Z). The reported UAF encirclement of RF elements in Kupiansk (19:39Z, UNCONFIRMED) suggests UAF retains local offensive capability in the North. RF continues to utilize KABs to apply indiscriminate pressure on the Donetsk front line (19:38Z).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Deep Strike Synchronization: RF has escalated the deep strike campaign's target set and range. The previous targeting of Kremenchuk (Poltava, PSR) was likely an intermediate step to mask the true intent: striking Kyiv. The trajectory of the UAV group (Poltava $\rightarrow$ Cherkasy $\rightarrow$ Kyiv) indicates a sophisticated routing intended to evade known AD coverage.

• Analytical Judgment: RF seeks to achieve maximum psychological and operational impact during the window of high ground pressure in the South by forcing UAF AD redistribution away from front-line areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. Ground Maneuver Preparation (Southern Flank): While there is still no confirmation of heavy armor crossing the Gaychur River (PIR 1, CRITICAL gap), RF is maintaining high preparatory fire tempo (KAB Donetsk, UAV Zaporizhzhia). The threat of the MDCOA remains the top priority.

3. Attrition and Fixing Operations: RF is successfully sustaining the logistics strangulation campaign on the Odesa GLOCs, confirmed by damage to civilian infrastructure (19:50Z). The sustained KAB usage demonstrates an intent to fix UAF ground assets and command posts across the front line.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Defensive Successes: UAF units, specifically the 92nd Brigade, demonstrated effective defense against an RF assault in a woodland environment (20:01Z). The claim of isolating RF troops in Kupiansk suggests tactical initiative in the Kharkiv direction (19:39Z, UNCONFIRMED).
• International Support: The new commitments secured at Ramstein (19:36Z) provide strategic assurance of continued Western support, directly countering RF long-term fatigue narratives.
• Strategic Resilience: The Main Intelligence Directorate (ГУР МО) released combat footage (19:50Z), likely intended to demonstrate continuous operational effectiveness and maintain high morale across the force.

Information environment / disinformation

RF information activities are focused on reinforcing domestic narratives and eroding UAF morale:

1. Domestic Unity: State media (TASS) and military bloggers (Dnevnik Desantnika, Dva Mayora) promote patriotic content (music, fundraising appeals) and internal political narratives (Supreme Court case, Kaliningrad projects), designed to signal normalcy and internal cohesion.
2. Foreign Fighter PSYOPS: The RF claim of killing a Danish mercenary (19:41Z) is standard PSYOPS designed to deter foreign volunteers and amplify RF operational successes for domestic consumption.
3. UAF Morale Erosion: RF military bloggers continue to push narratives of poor UAF conditions and troop capture (19:57Z), targeting the morale of front-line units.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The next 6-12 hours are critical for both strategic air defense and tactical ground maneuver on the Southern flank.

MLCOA (Kyiv Deep Strike & Southern Consolidation): (HIGH Confidence) RF air assets will attempt to strike high-value targets within Kyiv Oblast using the currently tracked UAV group. Simultaneously, RF ground forces will sustain KAB/artillery preparatory fires over Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, consolidating the bridgehead at Peschanoye and awaiting optimal conditions (e.g., confirmation of UAF AD distraction/relocation) for the heavy armor commitment.

MDCOA (Immediate Armor Thrust at Peschanoye): (HIGH Confidence) Leveraging the darkness and the strategic distraction of the Kyiv strike, the RF Vostok Group commits heavy maneuver forces across the Gaychur River at Peschanoye. This remains the singular most dangerous course of action, posing an existential threat to UAF positions in the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk rear area.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The immediate expansion of the deep strike threat to Kyiv necessitates a reallocation of ISR and AD assets, while maintaining CRITICAL focus on the Southern ground threat.