Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 161805Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF Robotic EW Deployment: (17:36Z, MoD Russia, HIGH) The Russian Federation (RF) is field-testing a mobile Electronic Warfare (EW) system integrated onto the Kurier Ground Robotic Platform (GRS), operated by the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (Zapad Group). This confirms a rapid technological adaptation by RF forces to utilize robotic platforms not only for mine clearance (previous report) but also for countering Ukrainian FPV drone saturation.
• Eastern Axis Pressure Amplification: (17:59Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM) RF sources claim the 'O-Group' (Brave) is assaulting the area around Myrnograd (West of Pokrovsk), suggesting a significant amplification of pressure aimed at flanking or encircling the primary UAF defensive positions in the Pokrovsk salient.
• UAF Counter-UAS Success: (17:41Z, STERNENKO, HIGH) UAF successfully employed a drone interceptor to destroy a Shahed UAV, indicating successful localized tactical counter-measures against persistent RF aerial threats.
• RF Counter-UAS Focus: (18:05Z, MoD Russia, HIGH) RF Yug Group forces claimed the destruction of a UAF temporary deployment area and a UAV Command Post near Kostiantynivka using Grad MLRS, reinforcing the high priority RF places on suppressing UAF drone capabilities near the main line of contact.
• UAF Strategic Financing Assurance: (17:59Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH) President Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine and partners will finance long-term post-war military contracts, providing strategic assurance regarding future force generation and retention structure.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational tempo is rising along the Eastern fixation axis (Pokrovsk), synchronized with the continued high-readiness posture of the RF Vostok Group in the South (Peschanoye).

SOUTHERN AXIS (Maneuver Threat):

• Peschanoye Bridgehead (Dnipropetrovsk): The high-risk threat of heavy armor crossing the Gaychur River remains the primary concern (PIR 1 unmet). RF sources are now publicly claiming advances in "Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" (17:59Z), likely referring to consolidation or slight expansion from the confirmed bridgehead. The threat level remains CRITICAL.
• Zaporizhzhia: The air raid alert, consistent with anticipated KAB saturation, was lifted (18:04Z). UAF command confirms active measures are underway to mitigate the systemic impact of the upcoming Generalized Vulnerability Period (GVP) and subsequent power outages (17:50Z).

EASTERN AXIS (Fixation and Attrition):

• Pokrovsk Salient: RF intent to collapse the salient is strongly reinforced by claims of assaulting Myrnograd (17:59Z) and the confirmed targeting of UAF UAV command posts near Kostiantynivka (18:05Z). This aggressive informational posture is designed to force UAF tactical reserves into premature commitment or withdrawal.
• Lyman/Siversk: Localized combat is confirmed south of Lyman (near Ozerne, 17:39Z). This indicates continued localized, low-level RF attacks designed to maintain pressure and fix UAF northern forces, preventing their southward redeployment.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Adaptive Warfare & C-UAS: The deployment of the Kurier GRS integrated with mobile EW systems (17:36Z) confirms RF intent to enhance protection against UAF FPV and small ISR UAVs, especially critical during planned high-speed maneuver operations (MDCOA). This capability should be factored into UAF offensive planning, as it will increase the vulnerability of low-flying strike assets against RF forward maneuver elements.

2. Escalated IO/Kinetic Synchronization (Pokrovsk): RF operational reporting now claims assaults on Myrnograd, signaling that the kinetic pressure is reaching key UAF rear communication nodes in the Pokrovsk area. This media escalation likely precedes or accompanies increased kinetic activity in the sector.

3. Deep Strike Activity: RF AD units claimed continued destruction of UAF UAVs over Bryansk Oblast (17:42Z), indicating UAF deep strike attempts continue despite high-tempo frontline operations.

UNCONFIRMED: S-400 Strike: UAF claims a successful strike against an S-400 SAM system convoy in Belgorod Oblast (17:42Z). This claim is UNCONFIRMED (single source). If verified, it would temporarily degrade RF Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities near the border, potentially supporting UAF reconnaissance/strike missions. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Counter-UAS Adaptation: The documented successful interception of a Shahed using a drone interceptor (17:41Z) validates the UAF strategy of diversifying air defense mechanisms and utilizing cost-effective C-UAS solutions to preserve high-value missile inventories.

2. Infrastructure Resilience: UAF authorities in Zaporizhzhia are focused on proactive grid management and load reduction measures (17:50Z), demonstrating a coherent response strategy to the anticipated effects of RF strikes (GVP).

3. Strategic Force Generation: President Zelenskyy’s announcement regarding partner financing for post-war military contracts addresses key long-term force retention and modernization challenges, sustaining the morale and professionalization of the standing force (17:59Z).

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is focused on three vectors:

1. RF Operational Overstatement: Claims of "encirclement" (Myrnograd, 17:59Z) are likely exaggerated to generate psychological pressure on UAF forces and influence international reporting on the pace of RF advance.
2. Internal Distraction: RF military channels celebrated significant follower milestones (17:50Z) while reports of highly charged domestic issues (Crocus aftermath, 17:37Z) and civil complaints regarding neglect (Yaroslavl road protests, 17:58Z) are disseminated. This suggests an effort to divert internal attention from operational setbacks or infrastructure failures.
3. IO Counter-Tactic: UAF sources are actively attributing attacks on Military Commissariat and Social Support Centers (TCC) to deliberate Russian information campaigns (18:04Z), demonstrating proactive cognitive defense measures.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate threat remains the synchronization of the Southern maneuver (Peschanoye) with GVP implementation. RF forces will likely attempt to utilize the cover of darkness and anticipated logistical friction to achieve the decisive maneuver element.

MLCOA (Eastern Attrition & South Consolidation): (HIGH Confidence) RF forces will maintain high-intensity artillery and KAB saturation along the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka line to capitalize on the Myrnograd pressure narrative. At the Peschanoye bridgehead, RF forces will continue to consolidate the position using light/engineer assets, potentially testing UAF defenses with robotic/EW-protected reconnaissance probes.

MDCOA (Night Armor Thrust): (CRITICAL Confidence) RF Vostok Group attempts to push heavy armor across the Gaychur River at Peschanoye under cover of darkness (NLT 2200Z). The incorporation of the Kurier GRS/EW system (17:36Z) suggests that RF maneuver elements will be better shielded against UAF FPV defenses than previously assessed, increasing the potential success of a rapid breakthrough.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The critical gap concerning heavy materiel crossing at Peschanoye remains the immediate intelligence priority. The technical specifications and operational effectiveness of the new RF EW integration must also be rapidly assessed.