Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 161740Z DEC 25

Key updates since last sitrep

• Southern Axis UAV Activity: (17:03Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH) New UAV wave detected approaching Tatarbunary/Artsyz, confirming the sustained RF effort to interdict critical supply routes extending past the damaged Zatoka bridge structure.
• RF Technology Deployment: (17:11Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH) RF forces are field-testing the new NRTC "Courier" robotic mine clearance system, signaling an attempt to mitigate anticipated high casualties or increase operational tempo in complex terrain operations.
• Eastern Axis Focus Confirmation: (17:32Z, WarGonzo, HIGH) RF media highlights the deployment and effectiveness of the 7th Regiment UAV unit operating near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), reinforcing the assessment that Pokrovsk remains the primary operational fixation point for RF forces.
• Strategic Compensation Mechanism: (17:31Z, DeepState, HIGH) The International Compensation Commission for Ukraine was formally established in The Hague, providing strategic assurance regarding long-term financial recovery derived from RF assets.
• Information Warfare Synchronization: (17:06Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH) A communications network disruption occurred in the German Bundestag during President Zelenskyy's visit. While attribution is unconfirmed, this event coincides with high-tempo RF IO efforts targeting Western support narratives.

Operational picture (by sector)

The operational picture remains dominated by the RF strategy of fixing UAF reserves in the East (Pokrovsk) while generating the decisive maneuver capability in the South (Peschanoye). The risk of infrastructure disruption due to the anticipated widespread power outages (GVP) remains the primary time constraint for UAF command.

SOUTHERN AXIS (Logistics and Maneuver):

• Odesa/GLOCs: Confirmed new UAV threat vector targeting the Tatarbunary/Artsyz area (17:03Z). This is the third reported strike sequence targeting GLOCs south of Odesa, indicating a persistent, high-priority RF effort to isolate the Southern Operational Command from resupply via Romania/Moldova corridors.
• Zaporizhzhia: A new air raid alert was issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (17:21Z), consistent with the previously anticipated expansion of RF Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes intended to suppress UAF Air Defense (AD) and preparatory fires for the Peschanoye maneuver.
• Peschanoye Bridgehead: Despite high operational intent confirmed by repeated Vostok Group reports (17:33Z), visual confirmation of heavy RF armor (tanks, IFVs) crossing the Gaychur River remains absent. The threat level remains CRITICAL pending confirmation.

EASTERN AXIS (Fixation):

• Pokrovsk: RF commitment of specialized ISR/UAS units (7th Regiment, 17:32Z) near Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) validates the tactical priority assigned to this sector. This UAV-centric approach is designed to maintain high attrition and fixation on UAF maneuver elements, preventing their redeployment south.
• UAV Interdiction: UAF units continue localized drone strike successes ("Сбросов") (17:03Z), essential for managing RF localized assaults and maintaining local fire superiority against dismounted infantry.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Multi-Domain Synchronization: RF forces are executing a highly synchronized fix-and-isolate strategy across multiple domains: * Kinetic: Persistent ground pressure (Pokrovsk) and confirmed deep strike interdiction (Odesa GLOCs). * Cyber/IO: Attempts to generate strategic friction (German Bundestag network outage, 17:06Z) and manipulate peace narratives (spring agreement claims, 17:32Z). * Future Capability: Deployment of the NRTC "Courier" mine clearance robot (17:11Z) suggests RF planning accounts for significant UAF counter-mobility obstacles, specifically in the context of high-speed breakthrough operations (MDCOA, Peschanoye).

2. Intentions (High Confidence): RF intentions remain centered on exploiting the imminent vulnerability of the UAF rear by utilizing the Gaychur bridgehead. The continuous focus on the Vostok AOR (17:33Z) reinforces the assessment that the strategic window for this maneuver is closing (NLT 17 DEC coinciding with GVP).

3. Command and Control (C2) / Sustainment: No new information suggests C2 degradation. RF domestic propaganda continues to dismiss foreign calls for de-escalation (rejection of Christmas Truce, 17:27Z), indicating centralized strategic resolve.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Force Generation: The UAF "Lubart Brigade" has launched a targeted recruitment campaign emphasizing youth (18-24 y/o) (17:11Z), demonstrating active efforts to replenish and generate combat-capable reserves. Fundraising for crucial transport (17:34Z) continues to rely heavily on volunteer support.

2. Strategic Resilience:

• Ramstein (15 Nations) support confirmed (17:04Z).
• The Hague Convention establishment of the International Compensation Commission (17:31Z) reinforces long-term Western commitment and the feasibility of utilizing frozen Russian assets for defense procurement (17:08Z).
• Successful repatriation of 60 citizens (17:28Z) highlights continued effort in the humanitarian domain.

3. Internal Political Dynamics: The debate concerning elections (17:19Z) continues, posing a risk of internal political friction if not managed strategically alongside ongoing operations.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is characterized by escalating RF diplomatic counter-narratives and psychological operations (PSYOPs).

• Peace Maneuver: RF sources promote the idea of a potential peace agreement by spring (17:32Z), likely intended to decrease Western resolve and preempt future UAF counter-offensives. This narrative is juxtaposed with the immediate and high-profile rejection of a Christmas Truce proposal (17:27Z).
• Cyber/IO Escalation: The network outage in the German Bundestag (17:06Z) is highly suspicious, aligning with RF objectives to destabilize Western political support.
• Domestic Control: RF security reporting (hoax bomb, Odintsovo, 17:06Z) and domestic internet outage claims (17:03Z) suggest underlying internal security concerns, which RF attempts to suppress or deflect.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate threat is defined by the synchronization of RF operational windows (night operations, GVP impact, Gaychur crossing).

MLCOA (Logistics Strangulation & KAB Saturation): (HIGH Confidence) RF will exploit the night hours (post-1800Z) and the anticipated infrastructure disruption to accelerate UAV strikes against Southern GLOCs (Tatarbunary/Artsyz) and saturate Zaporizhzhia with KABs. Ground forces at Peschanoye will likely consolidate the existing bridgehead and prepare engineering assets for the heavy lift.

MDCOA (Peschanoye Armor Push): (CRITICAL Confidence) RF Vostok Group attempts to push heavy armor (Tanks/IFVs) across the Gaychur River at Peschanoye under cover of darkness and expanded preparatory fires. The successful implementation of the NRTC "Courier" (or similar systems) would accelerate the penetration rate by mitigating UAF minefield defenses. This push remains the most critical threat to the overall UAF operational posture.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The critical gap concerning the heavy materiel crossing at Peschanoye remains unresolved and is time-sensitive.